Thargoid Bubble attack pattern (reposted with more info)

[Baddestjerkface]

Decided to do a new thread to include the wire graph I plotted. Keeping the old info from the first post, but adding a lot more information in (a lot for me at least.)


What I did was break down the thargoid station attacks in to groups of 4, from there I visualized straight lines from one system to the another. If 2 lines crossed, I noted down the 4 systems that I used to plot the intersection.
Then I flew to the first intersection, with 20ly was a permit locked system, Belicia (unknown permit).
The next cluster of 4 systems had Tiliala within 20ly of the intersection. This permit is attainable and the system has an interesting back story.
Third cluster of 4 systems had Lhs 2921 within 20ly of the intersection. (Unkown permit.)
The fourth cluster, thanks to the thargoid attacks yesterday, have CD-44 1695 within 20ly of intersection. (Unknown permit)

Not knowing what to do with this information I used the 4 permit locked systems in the same manner as the the thargoid attack stations. I found Lft 509 (unknown permit) to be within 20ly of intersection.

What is interesting, is the location of Lft 509, both in my plots and its stellar location, as well as its system layout. I don't know where to go from here or if this leads anywhere, but I found the pattern interesting and figured I'd share what I found.

I used Auto-Cad to make a wire graph of the Clusters and then graphed the final four center points of the cluster.
The key for the plots are by color so each system has its own color within its own cluster. To save some time and typing the color/system order is always Red to Cyan, Green to Yellow, Center plot Magenta. I will type out the systems in order, so it should be easy to follow the color scheme. In Cluster 5, the center plots/magenta points follow the red-yellow scheme, plotting its own center/magenta point.

Red - Cyan
Green - Yellow
= Magenta

due to image embedding issues click the link for images.

Cluster 1: https://imgur.com/a/xltAdrI
Flech - Irandan
Valkups - Li Tzicnii
Center= Bellica

Cluster 2: https://imgur.com/a/4uv6UY9
ugp 145- Hip 44811
Walgal - Rmk 6
Center= Tiliala

Cluster 3: https://imgur.com/a/0BA4sS8
Di Jion - Lp 581-36
Tembala - Dhanhopi
Center= Lhs 2921

Cluster 4: https://imgur.com/a/A1iIWoA
Kunuvii - Iota Pictoris A
Hip 9599 - Wayutabul
Center= CD-44 1695

Cluster 5 (Magenta plot points): https://imgur.com/a/Ur04Bov
CD-44 1695 - Lhs 2921
Tiliala - Bellica
Center: Lft 509

 

[TiberiusMaximus]

Interesting discovery. Good work. Maybe they are using bases or larger ships in these areas, to launch their attacks from? I think a lot of these unknown permits, are because the system is under full thargoid control.

 

[Baddestjerkface]

I'm thinking Hive ships. Systems controlled by thargoids or at least their human cult spokespeople. Giving players a foothold into a new storyline/ faction conflict or even weapons and modules. Except LFT 509, that's something else.

 

[TheOverWolf]

The next question would be whether or not you can use the permit locked systems to predict possible attack targets.

 

[Baddestjerkface]

I'm running with that possibility now, haven't time to fully look into (got a baby shower to plan), but from the quick glance I took earlier it looks like the latest attacks plus the predicted ones make a cross section close to Lft 509. That leads to 3 possibilities: the cross section plots all lead to each other and can be graphed to reveal future locations; it's a less subtle bread crumb that leads to that system; or my hypothesis is wrong/flawed and I need to reexamine my approach.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

One thing to check would be how likely this pattern is to appear if it doesn't actually exist - i.e. what percentage of the bubble is within 20LY of an "unknown permit" system, and what percentage is within 20LY of any permit system?

It looks like there's about 35-40 permit systems in the bubble, which would cover only about 4% of the space with 20LY bubbles. So that seems unlikely to be coincidence.

How did you choose how to group the systems into clusters of 4?

 

[Baddestjerkface]

One thing to check would be how likely this pattern is to appear if it doesn't actually exist - i.e. what percentage of the bubble is within 20LY of an "unknown permit" system, and what percentage is within 20LY of any permit system?

It looks like there's about 35-40 permit systems in the bubble, which would cover only about 4% of the space with 20LY bubbles. So that seems unlikely to be coincidence.

How did you choose how to group the systems into clusters of 4?

I just saw a vague connection and looked deeper. Deeper meaning I flew my krait the better part of 2 days guesstimating what the invisible lines lead to. I found bellica first, it was a what if idea I had, it panned out. I played around with other groups, keeping track of the ones that had cross sections like the first cluster. I decided of 4 system clusters because of the stargate movie and the scene where Jackson is explaining spacial coordinates. You could triangulate in space, but without an anchor the end point could be anywhere over a very large area. Once I was sure that I wasn't just seeing things I plotted the systems in autocad and came up with the cross section theory.

Even if other systems could be clustered the same way, it brings up the question of if they are targets, if those systems didn't get hit, yes it would cause me to reexamine the theory. This theory isnt anything more than an observation at this point, and probably won't be fully developed for some time as it relies on stations being hit. That being said, I expect thargoid attacks to stop with chapter 4 release because from the pattern I saw, its run its course. Further clues will be found in the attacked systems with the help of the new exploration system (maybe). What better way to kick off a new gameplay mechanic than having it play a pivotal role?

 

[ShadowWolf Kell]

The only real pattern I've seen is they are keen on attacking systems with Ammonia worlds.

 

[Baddestjerkface]

Sorry for the way late response. Agreed, and at least one of those permit locked systems has an ammonia gas giant, the other I cant verify because there is no way to obtain those permits.

 

[ebbrell]

I'm thinking, they think the systems with those worlds in are classed as theirs, in their eyes.
They just want us out of their system

 

[Fubidou]

I'm in Pleiades Sector JC-V D2 62 system, at Asami Orbital. There's no attack here, but the place is swarming with Thargoids, and upon approaching the station there were about 4 non-human signals clustered around the station. It's right on the path of the Thargoid attacks, so I wouldn't be surprised if it came under attack pretty soon. Although no ammonia worlds here and it's not at the end of the line of compromised stations, and it seems a lot of the systems here have Thargoid presence. Still, I was worried when I logged in today my ship would be in the middle of a battlefield.

You can see the position of the system here

 

[pbanks]

New player, and I lack the analytics-fu for ED database resources. This is just an observation via the galaxy map in the client.

One thing I've noticed is that the vast majority of systems that have damaged/repairing stations are extraction economies. I don't know how that rate compares to the overall ratio of extraction systems that humans inhabit.

cheers

 

[Ian Doncaster]

One thing I've noticed is that the vast majority of systems that have damaged/repairing stations are extraction economies. I don't know how that rate compares to the overall ratio of extraction systems that humans inhabit.

About 23% of systems are Extraction (slightly less than Industrial, but more than anything else). So if well over 50% of damaged/repairing are Extraction, that would be unusual.

However, there are several factors that might explain it.

1) The Thargoids have largely been attacking systems with Ammonia Worlds. These are more likely in "cold" systems, which are also more likely to be Extraction economies - hotter systems are likely to have terraformable worlds, and therefore be Agricultural.

2) Extraction systems tend to be much lower population than other types, with poorer services and less of general importance. They may therefore have been less likely to receive player support for a successful defence.

3) Similarly, very few stations in the bubble have been repaired - but priority is unlikely to be given to low population Extraction stations.

To rule these out we'd need to:
- look at all systems targeted by Thargoids, whether or not the attack succeeded, and whether or not the station was subsequently repaired
- compare the percentage of Extraction in that set to the percentage of Extraction in all systems with an Ammonia World

If there was still a significant discrepancy at that point, that would definitely be interesting.

We do know that the Thargoids are operating their own mineral extraction, so the mineral-rich systems humans have also chosen for mining operations would be logical places for them to go ... or it might just be coincidence.

 

[Baddestjerkface]

There are no coincidences, just tiny crumbs that lead to a bigger pie. The only question is if the crumbs we are picking at, lead to an Apple pie or Peach pie. We need to note all data and cross reference it, find patterns and follow them. Thargoids have a different thought process than we do, in a way they are like Wasps or Bees, both of which have a level of communication that we can not understand, but through observation and investigation we can gleam basic motives and habits.

 

[ruifo]

I had to reply, even after 3 years... Hopefully to get more attention to it.
This is one of the most interesting finds I read here in a while. Well done Baddestjerkface

 

[ruifo]

To add, in the ED base game, as well as in Horizons, the galaxy map says little about the needed permit to access theses locked systems:

While in Odyssey we get a bit more information, stating the lock is issued/controled by the Pilots' Federation:

The same is true for all locked systems in case: LFT 509, Bellica, LHS 2921, and CD-44 1695. We know how to unlock Tiliala.

Sometimes Elite Dangerous gives me the impression that the real Dark Wheel is the Pilots' Federation itself.

 

[Darth Ender]

unknown permits always come off as the biggest plot hole.

They're not secret, it's public knowledge that you can't jump to a system due to not having a permit that doesn't exist anywhere.

Yet nobody talks about why these are the way they are in galnet, or for what justification there is in them being blocked by the pilots fed (especially the entire sectors).

And the fact that some have populations (millions)... and nobody is batting an eye at that?

You would at least expect there to be some cover story lie or some plausible reason but nothing. And it's not like these are systems owned by the pilots fed, they seem to be doing it on behalf of others and the super powers dont have an issue with this ? That the pilots fed protects a federation system doesn't bother the empire or alliance?


A better solution for the game and lore would have been for attempts to jump to these systems to cause mis-jumps that were actually intentional mis-jumps programmed in to the fsd's, Then the pilots fed could say that these systems are warned against jumping (but not bothering to mark them as "unknown permit" nonsense). Nobody the wiser that the problems jumping to these systems is fabricated and under the control of the pilots fed. Plus we get mis jumps as players, instead of plot device that doesn't make any sense for existing.