General / Off-Topic The safest place

[ianw]

They openly and publicly backed herd immunity as the UK's initial strategy. The whole idea behind that is that you let it spread.

Well looking at this I just Googled it doesn't seem to be clear cut - according to this that was the advice that was coming their way initially although it was apparently "never policy" and they did change it.

Coronavirus: Whitty and Vallance faced 'herd immunity' backlash, emails show

Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were alarmed by questions over the controversial concept, emails show.

www.bbc.co.uk

It just looks to me like you're trying to establish some kind of blame for a deliberate act rather than having poor strategies under consideration apparently based on advice from people who should know. It's been said many times it was never as simple as health or the economy as the two things are inextricably linked. Most governments it seems are having to walk that line.

 

[ianw]

There are idiots everywhere - both NZ and Oz had outbreaks caused by people breaking quarantine. I wouldn't put NZ or Oz near the top of my 'most draconian authoritarian governments' list, yet they're both doing better than most (NZ especially).

While the UK does have higher populations it also has vastly more resources it could have used - if it had the will. I'm more interested in the fact that I don't even recall it being discussed as an option (unlike Herd Immunity, which certainly was). Maybe I need to go see if all the Sage notes were ever released, I find it hard to believe it wasn't even considered.

But as people say (me included) rather a moot point now as that horse has definitely left the stable.

I wasn't suggesting NZ or Oz were draconian - though I do recall some police chief in Oz commenting on how some of his officers smashed a car window in and dragged the occupant out because they refused to show identification. I wouldn't exactly call that a softly softly approach ...

My point about NZ was that the situation as whole is really not comparable. I seem to recall this thread discussing the folly of trying to compare countries when it comes to this pandemic as everyone's situation is different in so many ways regarding health and general systems and culture.

ETA - regarding your 2nd para - I don't recall eradication being discussed as an option publicly. I seriously doubt they would have considered shutting all flights down and pulling up the drawbridge as it were. I think I recall hearing stuff about testing being no use once a certain threshold had been achieved though that may have been making a virtue of a necessity as in the early days our testing capacity was virtually non-existent. A bit like they were saying masks were no good for the general public mainly because we didn't have any.

Also it seems some WHO sources are now saying lockdowns should only be considered as a last resort.

Has the WHO backflipped on its own lockdown advice?

Comments from one of the World Health Organization's leading voices on COVID-19 raise the question of why governments have imposed lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Stigbob]

There are idiots everywhere - both NZ and Oz had outbreaks caused by people breaking quarantine. I wouldn't put NZ or Oz near the top of my 'most draconian authoritarian governments' list, yet they're both doing better than most (NZ especially).

While the UK does have higher populations it also has vastly more resources it could have used - if it had the will. I'm more interested in the fact that I don't even recall it being discussed as an option (unlike Herd Immunity, which certainly was). Maybe I need to go see if all the Sage notes were ever released, I find it hard to believe it wasn't even considered.

But as people say (me included) rather a moot point now as that horse has definitely left the stable.

The UK also has the huge geographical isolation advantage NZ and OZ have, we just didn't take advantage of it.

 

[Arry]

Well looking at this I just Googled it doesn't seem to be clear cut - according to this that was the advice that was coming their way initially although it was apparently "never policy" and they did change it.

Coronavirus: Whitty and Vallance faced 'herd immunity' backlash, emails show

Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were alarmed by questions over the controversial concept, emails show.

www.bbc.co.uk

It just looks to me like you're trying to establish some kind of blame for a deliberate act rather than having poor strategies under consideration apparently based on advice from people who should know. It's been said many times it was never as simple as health or the economy as the two things are inextricably linked. Most governments it seems are having to walk that line.

Herd immunity was put on the table by Cummings back in March. Spin it as you like, this is a fact.

As to blame? The buck stops with whoever in running the country. N.Z. is a good example of this. Governments knew back in March, how bad this thing was and yet failed to act or prepare. The U.K. government cherry picked the sage advice, to fit their own agenda and then tried to 'blame' the science. Insisting schools an other education institutions return, has seriously increased the infection rate and we are not allowed to talk about this in the U.K. There is still no affective test and trace system in the U.K., in-spite of all of the 'world beating' talk, from our leaders. The WHO said that masks, were an effective precaution back in March, yet the U.K. government refuted this, until September.

 

[Stigbob]

Well looking at this I just Googled it doesn't seem to be clear cut - according to this that was the advice that was coming their way initially although it was apparently "never policy" and they did change it.

Coronavirus: Whitty and Vallance faced 'herd immunity' backlash, emails show

Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance were alarmed by questions over the controversial concept, emails show.

www.bbc.co.uk

It just looks to me like you're trying to establish some kind of blame for a deliberate act rather than having poor strategies under consideration apparently based on advice from people who should know. It's been said many times it was never as simple as health or the economy as the two things are inextricably linked. Most governments it seems are having to walk that line.

Maybe I just have a much better recall of the verifiable history of it and haven't given an opinion on it either way.

I don't really feel a need to give an opinion on it since we've learned since that people are not developing mass immunity. It was demonstrably wrong.

 

[ianw]

Heed immunity was put on the table by Cummings back in March. Spin it as you like, this is a fact.

As to blame? The buck stops with whoever in running the country. N.Z. is a good example of this. Governments knew back in March, how bad this thing was and yet failed to act or prepare. The U.K. government cherry picked the sage advice, to fit their own agenda and the tried to 'blame' the science. Insisting schools an other education institutions return, has seriously increased the infection rate and we are not allowed to talk about this in the U.K. The is still no affective test and trace system in the U.K., in-spite of all of the 'world beating' talk, from our leaders. The WHO said that masks, were an effective precaution back in March, yet the U.K. government refuted this, until September.

I don't disagree with any of that - apart from the herd immunity thing the why's and wherefores of which I've never been up on - I just Googled it and found that BBC thing that I linked.

I'm really not trying to spin anything - just having a discussion based on things I've observed. I'm neither supporting nor accusing the govt. I'm just trying to suggest things are perhaps not as black and white as people seem to want to suggest.

 

[ianw]

Maybe I just have a much better recall of the verifiable history of it and haven't given an opinion on it either way.

I don't really feel a need to give an opinion on it since we've learned since that people are not developing mass immunity. It was demonstrably wrong.

I can agree with that!

 

[Arry]

I don't disagree with any of that - apart from the herd immunity thing the why's and wherefores of which I've never been up on - I just Googled it and found that BBC thing that I linked.

I'm really not trying to spin anything - just having a discussion based on things I've observed. I'm neither supporting nor accusing the govt. I'm just trying to suggest things are perhaps not as black and white as people seem to want to suggest.

National Geographic

Explore National Geographic. A world leader in geography, cartography and exploration.

www.nationalgeographic.co.uk

 

[Stigbob]

I can agree with that!

Now working backwards from that by initially going with herd immunity rather than a more stringent early lockdown, testing and tracing plus border controls and testing at the border is how we got to the point of having a large scale infection. In NZ they did it the other way and kept things at a scale they could control, in the UK months later we were still arguing against testing people entering the UK at all let alone stringently and with follow ups and quarantine checks. We gave people a leaflet instead.

Again that's not blame, that's just what happened.

 

[ianw]

Now working backwards from that by initially going with herd immunity rather than a more stringent early lockdown, testing and tracing plus border controls and testing at the border is how we got to the point of having a large scale infection. In NZ they did it the other way and kept things at a scale they could control, in the UK months later we were still arguing against testing people entering the UK at all let alone stringently and with follow ups and quarantine checks. We gave people a leaflet instead.

Again that's not blame, that's just what happened.

Well yes - we can see that's what happened.

Things could have been different if we'd had a decent test, track and trace system that was scalable at the start. But we didn't and still don't.

It strikes me as typical British "make do and mend" as much as anything. It's why things fell apart a couple of weeks ago with the PHE using xls to collate results.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

First death from confirmed reinfection reported.

COVID-19 has a low reinfection rate, according to the Oxford researchers, who say just 23 cases of confirmed reinfection have been reported worldwide. In all previous reinfections, the patients all survived.

The researchers say that reinfections occur “once antibody titers decrease and immunity wanes,” which calls into question the effectiveness of vaccines if antibodies are not long-lasting.

Highly atypical situation, in someone getting a bone marrow transplant.

 

[metatheurgist]

There are idiots everywhere - both NZ and Oz had outbreaks caused by people breaking quarantine. I wouldn't put NZ or Oz near the top of my 'most draconian authoritarian governments' list, yet they're both doing better than most (NZ especially).

We definitely have morons here; a lot of them play football (our version). We also had "sovereign citizens" and anti mask/vax protesters.

 

[Stigbob]

Well yes - we can see that's what happened.

Things could have been different if we'd had a decent test, track and trace system that was scalable at the start. But we didn't and still don't.

It strikes me as typical British "make do and mend" as much as anything. It's why things fell apart a couple of weeks ago with the PHE using xls to collate results.

Make do and mend is one way of saying it too little too late is another. Both very common sayings in the UK.

 

[ianw]

Tracking back on herd immunity for a mo..

Hatt Mancock is having none of it!

 

[Stigbob]

Tracking back on herd immunity for a mo..

Hatt Mancock is having none of it!

Not any more no, that's the benefit of five months of hindsight for him.

 

[WhiteHaulerMan]

This is not the only report, but it seems quite uncommon. From the Lancet article:


It raises questions about vaccine effectiveness. There is a possible risk that the vaccine covers a common mild variant, which permits a less successful but more virulent version to emerge. Given the sparse numbers of confirmed reinfections, this is not likely to be a big problem?

Got to note this case got only 5 days between infections. Likely caught the second version from a health care source.

The thing media seems to forget when they run these sort of articles is the question of if the person has been 'covid free' in the interim period, or if its in fact the same infection

 

[Morbad]

The thing media seems to forget when they run these sort of articles is the question of if the person has been 'covid free' in the interim period, or if its in fact the same infection

When it comes to science or medicine, mainstream media is just a gateway to the actual sources. In this case your question is well accounted for.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext

"Genetic discordance of the two SARS-CoV-2 specimens was greater than could be accounted for by short-term in vivo evolution."

 

[Ian Skippy]

The thing media seems to forget when they run these sort of articles is the question of if the person has been 'covid free' in the interim period, or if its in fact the same infection

'the media' over here reported it was a separate, new, infection which they found out due to IIRC differences in RNA.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

The thing media seems to forget when they run these sort of articles is the question of if the person has been 'covid free' in the interim period, or if its in fact the same infection

Very reasonable question.

We can only prove a new infection is present if the virus RNA is different before and after a hiatus.
That hardly gets proved, but it might be going on more than we can establish.

Doing the RNA sequencing is not possible for hundreds of thousands of cases. How many "prolonged" cases, or ones that "suddenly get worse" 3 weeks later are really reinfections?

Are health care workers/equipment passing on secondary infections in hospitals?
Covid virus can hang out for nearly 3 weeks on glass and steel. Reused PPE might be to blame. I spray everything down with soap water on leaving the hospital with the decon kit in my car trunk, but nobody else is doing that.

 

[Morbad]

We can only prove a new infection is present if the virus RNA is different before and after a hiatus.

True, but in the case of repeated negative test results followed by a new string of positives after a prolonged interval, the assumption of reinfection would be a pretty safe one, especially now that we've established that it is entirely possible. Only when there is a rapid turn around, as in that example where reinfection apparently occurred only days or weeks later, would it seem practical to require the samples to be sequenced for confirmation.

Obviously as much detail as possible should be collected on such potential cases so we can get an accurate idea of reinfection rates vs. prolonged/dormant infections, but even the limited information we have now casts serious doubts on the viability of a hands-off herd immunity strategy, above and beyond the more common criticisms.