I agree. Intelligence analysis IRL is based on exactly that, real life events characters & motivations, and there would inevitably be carry over into a wide range of other events which could be cross-checked to support evidential reasoning. ED is a fictional narrative which cannot be cross-checked, it’s too thin with no supporting evidence. We have very little evidence and it’s all superficial, despite some people’s attempts to link everything together. 
We have two basic alternatives, IMHO, assuming we believe FD claims that it’s real, in-game since the gamma release, & it’s a definite place. If you don’t believe those assumptions then you’re in the wrong thread.
Raxxla could be hidden randomly throughout 400 billion star systems, or it could be hidden within the bubble. I think the latter is much more likely, given the timelines that FD have given us-FD are trying to present a difficult to solve puzzle so evidently those dates and the other lore provide some clues; the lore is a set of hints about what has happened in the FD universe & we’ve been given it for a reason-it makes (some) sense of the FD universe. There may be some obfuscation within the lore, especially if said by some storyline characters, but most is “truthful”. Given the 2296 first rumour and colonisation dates of other systems I believe it’s within 20 ly of Sol, and may have been found by an early probe (hence the 20 ly) or found through Federation analysis of the alien Mars artefact (implying within Sol).
I’m unsure, since there is no support for that claim, about the alleged MB statement that the system has been honked but Raxxla not discovered; but I am highly confidant from this 20ly potential search range that Raxxla is disguised as something so ordinary that it has been overlooked (which is compatible with that alleged statement). There is also a possibility in that it needs a specific set of circumstances to be found (e.g. within 10km when you honk, doesnt show on ship sensors, visually hidden so no viable parallax searching) and this could well be the reason why it has not been found, especially if it is in the dim recesses of a system where nobody is likely to go. I think this is the reason for the “TDW hidden station” reference in the codex and the mention in galnet of a sculpture that could bend light.
It may be within a permit-locked system (that would make sense for several bubble permits to have been applied in-game), so Sol, Sirius, van Maanen...Since it has been in-game from the gamma it will not be a surface site. So it may be within an asteroid belt, near or disguised as a star/planet/moon, or it may be a station or npc.
We have two basic alternatives, IMHO, assuming we believe FD claims that it’s real, in-game since the gamma release, & it’s a definite place. If you don’t believe those assumptions then you’re in the wrong thread.
Raxxla could be hidden randomly throughout 400 billion star systems, or it could be hidden within the bubble. I think the latter is much more likely, given the timelines that FD have given us-FD are trying to present a difficult to solve puzzle so evidently those dates and the other lore provide some clues; the lore is a set of hints about what has happened in the FD universe & we’ve been given it for a reason-it makes (some) sense of the FD universe. There may be some obfuscation within the lore, especially if said by some storyline characters, but most is “truthful”. Given the 2296 first rumour and colonisation dates of other systems I believe it’s within 20 ly of Sol, and may have been found by an early probe (hence the 20 ly) or found through Federation analysis of the alien Mars artefact (implying within Sol).
I’m unsure, since there is no support for that claim, about the alleged MB statement that the system has been honked but Raxxla not discovered; but I am highly confidant from this 20ly potential search range that Raxxla is disguised as something so ordinary that it has been overlooked (which is compatible with that alleged statement). There is also a possibility in that it needs a specific set of circumstances to be found (e.g. within 10km when you honk, doesnt show on ship sensors, visually hidden so no viable parallax searching) and this could well be the reason why it has not been found, especially if it is in the dim recesses of a system where nobody is likely to go. I think this is the reason for the “TDW hidden station” reference in the codex and the mention in galnet of a sculpture that could bend light.
It may be within a permit-locked system (that would make sense for several bubble permits to have been applied in-game), so Sol, Sirius, van Maanen...Since it has been in-game from the gamma it will not be a surface site. So it may be within an asteroid belt, near or disguised as a star/planet/moon, or it may be a station or npc.
