CG predictions...

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Well, 4 hours in and Nova Imperium are about 2:1 up on bonds, slightly ahead on participants, and have so far gained bonds faster than Mandu hour-by-hour.

So either this is going to be a surprising CG because it swings against the 4-hour winner ... or it's going to be a surprising CG because the Federation lose.
 

Factabulous

Factabulous
Nova currently has more supporters 180 vs 150. But ofc the usual number of CG players will swamp this once people start. I can see this flipping in the next few hours as EU finishes work. Shame T1 is so high so there won't be a clear difference to persuade the undecided.
 

CMDR Serra

CMDR Serra
Ian Doncaster said:
Well, 4 hours in and Nova Imperium are about 2:1 up on bonds, slightly ahead on participants, and have so far gained bonds faster than Mandu hour-by-hour.

So either this is going to be a surprising CG because it swings against the 4-hour winner ... or it's going to be a surprising CG because the Federation lose.
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Hopefully the latter, but I suspect the initial disparity is the Nova Navy who kinda knew this was coming.

Lots of anti Fed chat in sys chat though - more than usual I think.

We'll see. It's a difficult one to call.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Factabulous said:
Nova currently has more supporters 180 vs 150. But ofc the usual number of CG players will swamp this once people start. I can see this flipping in the next few hours as EU finishes work. Shame T1 is so high so there won't be a clear difference to persuade the undecided.
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Yes - another 60B/tier one of the pattern which worked so well in Muhdrid. Strange choice.

As there, given that 200B bonds total seems about the max for a combined-sides total, any ratio much worse than 2:1 means someone's not getting paid at all. Though for now this one is narrowly within that...
 

Factabulous

Factabulous
Ian Doncaster said:
Last hour has definitely seen an increase in conflict.
Nova Imperium up ~570M ... Mandu up ~450M ... Nova still staying slightly ahead on participant numbers, too.

This one might stay too close to call for a while!
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Yeah, hasn't gone as fast as I thought, but the hourly trend is looking better for the Feds, they seem to be more constant in their improvements after a slower start:

1620333258725.png
 

Factabulous

Factabulous
We now have data through most of the usual busy times - Imps keeping their advantage in manpower and hand-ins - confounding all the experts, myself included :) (And people expect fdev to be able to predict these things). This week is mostly RP driven I guess and Nova do seem to have the better story. Unless it turns out they really were in league with the NMLA ... (They were also always in the lead, so pure mercenaries could be picking them for that.)

1620372472549.png

1620372503268.png
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Yes - it's a very interesting change from the normal results.

Empire side:
- dedicated local squadron to give them an initial head start to attract mercenaries and to put in heavy ongoing effort [1]
- big plot arrows saying "this is a set up"

Federal side:
- Empire ships squishier in CZs
- is the Federation

Neutral:
- plot is the only reward, no modules, no decals, no permits, and with the tiers set as they are not much cash either (current trends ... probably looking at either both sides being Tier 1, with a possibility for the Feds to narrowly miss or the Imps to just reach Tier 2, which would be the lowest combined bonds since the combat credit rebalance)

As someone who's been saying for a while that plot has more salience in CG results than people give it credit for, I'm still surprised by how much it seems to be working.

[1] This can probably be seen in the participant ratio being 6:5 but the bond ratio being 7:4 - a lot of any CG volume is driven by the top 25% / top 10% performances, which are both in reach of any dedicated player and also more effort than most people go to, so if a large squadron is willing to put in that sort of personal effort it can make a difference.
 

Kryxix

Kryxix
Very interesting change. The same cmdrs are fighting for NI now as last time they fought in a CG against NI to completely destroy it (and got the memorable moment when Denton Patreus shot NI leaders at the court building, and they were happy). And it wasn't long ago. Unexpected :)
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Kryxix said:
Very interesting change. The same cmdrs are fighting for NI now as last time they fought in a CG against NI to completely destroy it (and got the memorable moment when Denton Patreus shot NI leaders at the court building, and they were happy). And it wasn't long ago. Unexpected :)
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Yes - though participant counts were much lower back then - ~2000 for Patreus, ~600 for Nova Imperium. Likely that even the losing side in this one will be well above that combined total.
 

SCiARA

SCiARA
a random thought
what if the last CG was purposely paying out bonkers money so it wouldn't be so much of an issue on this one?
without any rewards it turns this into a purely story driven CG testing fednecks loyalty
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
SCiARA said:
a random thought
what if the last CG was purposely paying out bonkers money so it wouldn't be so much of an issue on this one?
without any rewards it turns this into a purely story driven CG testing fednecks loyalty
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I think the lack of non-plot rewards is definitely deliberate ... but based on both turnout so far and typical CZ CG turnout recently, I'd expect this one to nevertheless still have more participants than last week for both winning and losing sides.

I wouldn't be surprised if this week's losing side ended up with more participants than last week's winning side ... though that seems less certain at the moment.
 

Vetinari

V
Factabulous said:
confounding all the experts
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Im not an expert but I did say this might be a lot closer for a few reasons, not least that Hadrian isnt as universally hated as the general entitled Imps are and Nova having people in game who would be willing to actually fight rather than just complain and not get stuck in (and top 10 bears this out, first time Ive seen top 10 Imps beating top 10 Feds). But I didnt for one second see the Feds doing the 'honourable' thing based on the actual story and sitting it out at all, dont think anybody saw that one coming, certainly the Imps never cared about 'right or wrong' in any previous CG anwyay. I thought most Feds were just warmongers in general so that has totally surprised me. I always hoped that story mattered and now for the first time it might actually be the case and affect the outcome more, thanks to lack of outside influences like unique rewards.

Gotta say, nice one Frontier, it seems you finally found a way to make some people care who didnt seem to before and only did it for cash or rewards. Obviously bandwagon jumpers will come along and push it even more but how it started is because of the actual story it seems.
 

GraphiteGB

GraphiteGB
Looks like galnet is just announcing an end date for the "salvation" data log rewards for today, so nothhing that will effect the balance off the CG but may have more non CG events due with salvation later...
 

Factabulous

Factabulous

THE VOICE OF ‘SALVATION’​


Pilots Federation ALERT
The enigmatic ‘Salvation’ has sent a message to the Commanders he recently recruited to discover the Hesperus megaship.
The vessel was found in the Perseus Dark Region KC-V C2-2 system, after ‘Salvation’ provided an access key to read its automated SOS. Pilots were then encouraged to deliver any surviving logs to Taurus Mining Ventures at the Hind Mine asteroid base in the T Tauri system.
Patience Middleton, a representative of the corporation, announced:
“‘Salvation’ has authorised us to offer two million credits or ten units of void opals for delivering the Hesperus’s logs. This contract ends on the 21st of May 3307, after which payments will not be available.”
“We have been asked to relay the message below.”
“‘This is Salvation. I call myself this as I cannot yet reveal my identity, but my scientific breakthroughs will literally save all of humanity. The Adamastor and the Hesperus were just the beginning, as I have always known. For my intrepid agents, there will be further work to come.’”
Little is known about Taurus Mining Ventures, and ‘Salvation’ remains anonymous. Commanders are therefore being cautioned against undertaking tasks for a potentially criminal organisation.
 

Jmanis

Jmanis
Factabulous said:
“‘This is Salvation. I call myself this as I cannot yet reveal my identity, but my scientific breakthroughs will literally save all of humanity. The Adamastor and the Hesperus were just the beginning, as I have always known. For my intrepid agents, there will be further work to come.’”
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Maybe the breakthrough is why we're immortal in Odyssey...
 
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