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Thread: (Quite) Accurate Total NPC Population Numbers!

  1. #16
    Plenty of meat for the Thargoid grinder.

  2. #17
    Originally Posted by Bryan K View Post (Source)
    No wonder the Thargoids are showing up. Population control.

    I'm amazed this can be calculated at all. Very impressive, OP.
    Human population is still insufficient for harvest compared to total numbers of systems in the galaxy.
    We wait.
    You breed.

  3. #18
    Originally Posted by Olivia Vespera View Post (Source)
    I'm not quite sure. Look for a system with 0 population on EDDB.io and go there and find out if the upload resolves it.

    Of note, there's a system with 1 single lonely person.
    Maybe he likes it that way?

    I'll test tonight if EDDB uses EDDN.


    EDIT: The good news is that EDDB uses EDDN. Which means station data/shipyard/commodity data can be updated.
    The bad news? It doesn't seem to record population numbers, still checking the JSON file.

  4. #19
    And yet I still seem to see the same names over and over.

  5. #20
    Well doe to the OP for extracting this data out of the available resources.

    Nearly a year ago I made an attempt at guesstimating this figure, based on the population reports from Powerplay and extrapolating to include the non-Powerplay fringe territories. See this thread. My guesstimate was 5.9 trillion. With the actual figure at 6.6 trillion, it seems that the Fringe was larger and more populous than I had calculated.

    Originally Posted by Snarfbuckle View Post (Source)
    So what's the population growth then?

    If we assume a 1.02 growth rate per year as per estimated of 2018 and 7.5 billion and 1300 years of growth (counting from year 2000 to 3300)

    (7.500.000.000 X 1.02%) X 1300 = 9.945.000.000.000

    30% lower than estimated with current population rates.

    Now, we can most likely add a NUMBER of factors to why the population has not grown in a linear fashion like the fact that today our birth rate has decreased slowly since the 1950's.
    Unless disaster strikes and a large baby boom is needed it might just continue to decline a little as humanity spreads across space.

    http://www.geohive.com/earth/his_history3.aspx

    We can also assume that we have drops in birth rate even more due to the dangers of space travel and the danger of new worlds, bacteria and Thargoids.

    - Loss of life during space travel
    - Loss of life on new colonies
    - General danger of the Elite universe (lots of ships getting blown up everyday)
    - Galactic conflicts
    I believe the primary fault with your calculations is the presumption of near-continuous growth. In the future history of the ED universe, this has not happened.

    It is recorded in lore that the nuclear and biological weaponry deployed in WWIII (mid-21st century) exterminated the vast bulk of the human population, which was still at that time entirely confined to Earth itself. I don't think actual percentages or numbers of deaths have been given, but we can safely assume that the entire Human population in 2060 was less than a billion, probably even less than half a billion. All the ED lore books state is that the loss of life was "huge", the war "almost bringing extinction" to the human race, and that post-reconstruction Earth looked almost nothing like pre-war Earth "due to devastation and depopulation of nearly all the cities and towns".

    Now, it's entirely possible that the only reason the lore-books say this was the sheer impracticality of modelling a photo-realistic Earth in a 1990 computer game, so the "war destroyed everything on Earth" scenario was given to explain why your hometown could not be found if you tried to fly there in your spaceship, or indeed why the only cities left on Earth appeared to be the six or seven starport-cities. But as far as I am aware, this particular piece of lore has not been redacted or retconnned.

  6. #21
    Originally Posted by Sapyx View Post (Source)
    Well doe to the OP for extracting this data out of the available resources.

    Nearly a year ago I made an attempt at guesstimating this figure, based on the population reports from Powerplay and extrapolating to include the non-Powerplay fringe territories. See this thread. My guesstimate was 5.9 trillion. With the actual figure at 6.6 trillion, it seems that the Fringe was larger and more populous than I had calculated.
    It was actually your post I read when I recently wanted to know the answer to the question.

    My estimate was about 6.4 trillion.

    I summed the 4000 highest populated systems and assumed the next 16123 systems were equal to the 4000th highest populated system and summed that assumed population value together with the known 4000.
    It gave me an upper boundary.

    I knew it could be auto-counted from Eddb.io but Jasch was the one who figured out how to do it.

  7. #22
    Originally Posted by Sapyx View Post (Source)
    Well doe to the OP for extracting this data out of the available resources.

    Nearly a year ago I made an attempt at guesstimating this figure, based on the population reports from Powerplay and extrapolating to include the non-Powerplay fringe territories. See this thread. My guesstimate was 5.9 trillion. With the actual figure at 6.6 trillion, it seems that the Fringe was larger and more populous than I had calculated.



    I believe the primary fault with your calculations is the presumption of near-continuous growth. In the future history of the ED universe, this has not happened.

    It is recorded in lore that the nuclear and biological weaponry deployed in WWIII (mid-21st century) exterminated the vast bulk of the human population, which was still at that time entirely confined to Earth itself. I don't think actual percentages or numbers of deaths have been given, but we can safely assume that the entire Human population in 2060 was less than a billion, probably even less than half a billion. All the ED lore books state is that the loss of life was "huge", the war "almost bringing extinction" to the human race, and that post-reconstruction Earth looked almost nothing like pre-war Earth "due to devastation and depopulation of nearly all the cities and towns".

    Now, it's entirely possible that the only reason the lore-books say this was the sheer impracticality of modelling a photo-realistic Earth in a 1990 computer game, so the "war destroyed everything on Earth" scenario was given to explain why your hometown could not be found if you tried to fly there in your spaceship, or indeed why the only cities left on Earth appeared to be the six or seven starport-cities. But as far as I am aware, this particular piece of lore has not been redacted or retconnned.
    I'd post a Meat Loaf video, but I didn't kiss you.

  8. #23
    Originally Posted by Olivia Vespera View Post (Source)
    I'm not quite sure. Look for a system with 0 population on EDDB.io and go there and find out if the upload resolves it.

    Of note, there's a system with 1 single lonely person.
    We should have a CG to bring him/her something .... something to read, perhaps .... or drink

  9. #24
    Originally Posted by Lightspeed View Post (Source)
    We should have a CG to bring him/her something .... something to read, perhaps .... or drink

  10. #25
    Originally Posted by Olivia Vespera View Post (Source)
    I'm not quite sure. Look for a system with 0 population on EDDB.io and go there and find out if the upload resolves it.

    Of note, there's a system with 1 single lonely person.
    Pretty sure it does. I use EDMC in the bubble and EDDiscovery when exploring - both of them populate EDSM and EDDB automatically based on the latest ED JSON journal.

  11. #26
    Originally Posted by bootsam View Post (Source)
    +1 for doing Maths in your spare time.

    (Yeah, its MATHS not math)
    +1 because... Well, just because.

  12. #27
    How many of those multi trillions are active at any one time, would you think? We meet the same names over and over.

    So if we allow for, say 20 per commander in the game in a single system? How many would that make? A few ten thousand different names required ?

  13. #28
    Didn't Mahon pass the One Trillion citizens mark recently?

  14. #29
    Meh, that feels like the population of Shrewsbury sometimes. Lol

  15. This is the last staff post in this thread. #30
    Originally Posted by jasch View Post (Source)
    Hey everyone,

    I just wanted to make a quick post about the total number of NPCs living in Elite Dangerous.
    tl;dr: There are currently 6,612,313,733,791 NPCs as system population! That's it.

    Longer version:
    The number isn't completly accurate because it's based on eddb.io data, so it depends on when a system was last updated.
    But I think it's reasonable to assume that it's somewhere around 6.612 trillion NPCs.

    How I got that number:
    Easy, just downloaded the data from eddb.io. Here are the bash commands I used (linux user here, so command line is my first way to solve problems).
    Code:
    #!/bin/env bash
    wget https://eddb.io/archive/v5/systems_populated.jsonl
    cat systems_populated.jsonl | sed "s/.*\"population\"\://g;s/\,\".*//g" > popnum
    awk '{ sum += $1 } END { print sum }' popnums
    Credits:
    Olivia Vespera - original idea, got me to calc the number
    eddb.io - providing the data
    community - filling eddb with data
    That's pretty close. Only about 20 billion out I think.

    Michael

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