Interesting. I have not seen influence swings that big when working solo - is that the max the faction can move on its own in total with all the players, or per player?
Perhaps I need to retry a max of missions test...
FDEV have explicitely stated in the first livestream, that there is no single-commander-cap. so any cap (whether it is a hard- or softcap) applies to groups and single players as well. that 15% was 3 hardcore BGS players taking on a 60k population system .... around 100 missions between two ticks.
I've induced swings of =~ 30% on my own on some low pop (10k-ish) systems spamming black market trading against one faction, and positive effects for a chosen other faction.
which is why i tried carefully wording... my impression is, that there is a (soft or hard-) cap for positive influence gain directly for a faction in place.... for exampel by running missions for them, or trading with profit at their market, selling exploration data and cashin in their bounties etc.
on top of that you can raise their influence by lowering other factions influence, to make much bigger swings possible.
Goemon made suggestion on how other things like legal weapons dealing may contribute overwhelmingly to boom, but also cause civil unrest, though you'd never see that. Just coz I don't agree with that doesn't mean it's incorrect
and the other way round...
the problem with providing a flowchart of states above those provided by FDEV in their dev update and the BGS livestream is, that you can't see the state buckets, till you filled one succesfully (and the state goes pending). you can't see emptying a bucket at all.
and somewhere in this thread Jmanis did an excellent calculation on diminuishing returns in relation to population size (bigger population = harder to move) and influence (more influence=harder to gain influence), which is another problem.
so the standard test is always, to take a no-traffic system low-pop, and repeat one kind of action, till you trigger a state. i have triggered bust by black market trade, and reduced a controlling factions influence as many.... so we know that this works. but we are far from knowing how much BM-trade triggers bust exactly, whether it really counters boom, whether that bucket is system specific or faction wide... the no-traffic provides the problem of only a small number of transactions, while a lot of transactions (there is a dev quote on activity i system somewhere) might provide more or less effect of a a single action... and the small population provides another problem, that you might hit soft-caps or hard-caps much to early, in which it looks as if your actions have no further effect.
and then, there are bugs. like from the 2.3. patch-notes: "Fixed faction influence change from smuggling weapons". i'm not sure what this is referring to (currently no negative influence by BM weapon trade? currently positive influence from BM weapon trade? too much negative influence from BM weapon tarde?) - but anyone testing the effect of illegal weapons trade in the current live game would get a bugged effect out of the testing.
i personally try to keep things simple, aka: do this - trigger that. combine as many of the things that trigger this at once.