Anyone else see a pattern here... What do you think is going to come next?

[NoVR - What_The_X_F_Dev]

I honestly thought early on that the more people experienced VR the bigger it would get. Now though it seems that people just don’t like it. As we enter a third year of little to no AAA game development it’s becoming clear that there is little push or drive for big game houses to develop VR titles. That said ED is still a showcase VR title but even with that accolade most people it seems feel
like you. For me it’s the complete opposite if I’ve got other things to do while playing ED then my monitor works best. If however I want full emersion and 100% focus on flying my space ships then it’s VR all day long.

Strange thing is that more Quest 2's than Xboxes were sold last year.

 

[He$$eeTant]

Strange thing is that more Quest 2's than Xboxes were sold last year.

My mate bought one after me saying how good it all was, he’s a life long gamer and introduced me to Elite back in the 80s. Was chatting to him at Christmas and he said “yeah no one uses it anymore” that’s him and his boys, the interest wave lasted about 2 months. It’s such a shame.

 

[NoVR - What_The_X_F_Dev]

The thing about the quest is if used in standalone configuration, it's essential mobile phone gaming on your face, it uses a snapdragon CPU so that is essentially what it is, so its onwn native games arefun, but gimmicky, like say beat saber, and the novelty wears off. When used as a gaming peripheral, attached to a PC, typically for simulator tpye games, it really takes the expereince to the next level of immersion, and in that context it's utterly compelling, and for msot there isn't any turning back to flat screen. There are obviously entire different genres of games available for VR, such as irst person shooter, there's onward + pavlov + Warhammer 40,000: Battle Sister etc for PC VR, but those need more silicon schutzpah than a snapdragon can provide, hence they are a PC VR rather than standalone experience.

 

[DrinkyBird]

I also have a Quest 2 - got it almost a year ago now - and I use it often but not for long at a time, usually just 30 minutes of Beat Saber. Recently I played a couple of hours of Euro Trick Sim 2 in VR with a friend, it was fun but having to do anything outside of the game was a pain in the rear. He had me install three mods - even with my mouse in keyboard right in front of me, it wasn't fun. (It would've helped if the mouse cursor rendered in the desktop view...)
I also have a backlog of a bunch of VR games, but I also have a huge backlog of games in general anyway...

Immersion isn't of particular importance to me, especially if performance and convinience are sacrified - which VR both throws at the window. (ED in VR is almost unbearably laggy even in Horizons at low settings, whereas the same machine has zero issue running flatscreen Odyssey at mid-to-high settings... And I lose the convinience of having Netflix on my left monitor and being able to alt-tab out to check EDDB/Inara/whatever. I've tried Oculus' virtual display stuff and OVR toolkit, both of which just end up being a load of hassle.)

 

[Manticore]

Since we won't get the truth?

Nothing. I expect nothing from these people any more.

Wouldn't trust them.

 

[Sunleader]

Meep

Thanks for the Finance Class. But I am well aware of how Shares Work.
But you unfortunately dont seem to Realize what Shares are at all.

You See. That is the thing.
Frontier did Issue Shares and Sold them. The Biggest Investor after Braben himself right now is Tencent.
And if Frontier wants additional Money in the Future to Develop the Game further they got 3 Choices.

1.
Sell more Shares of their Company. Which right now would be quite Horrible cause the Price has Plummeted. Thus also Signaling that Potential Investors right now dont believe the Game to really be worth Investing into.
Pls note. This can not just be Done by Issuing New Shares. But also by for example Braben Selling his own Shares.
Which is usually the Preferred Method. Because if you Issue New Shares you are extremely likely to Drop the Share Value unless your Company is really Kicking it Off High.
Which Frontier right now Certainly is not.
2.
Find Direct Investors which Fund another Extension, Update etc.
Which will of course look at such Shares and at the Companies Profits and ask themselves if this Game has the Potential to Grow.
And they will then Demand a Cut of these Profits. Also they wont Fund it unless they Expect this Cut the be Higher than what they Invested.
Which is the thing. Frontiers Reputation for Delivering on their Promises on Elite Dangerous is Trash right now.
Which means Finding any Investors to Fund further Development is likely already Difficult.
3.
Fund it completely from Existing Capital or from Personal Capital.
Existing Company Capital of course Requires that this Capital is Available and not otherwise planned for something.
Also it means that the Company itself Carries the Full Risk and in most cases will keep the Capital Low. Especially if they have Several Games.
Which means if Frontier has to Pay Future Updates entirely alone. This will likely result in Subpar Results of Development.
The other Option is for David Braben to Put his own Money on the Table. This is often done when Companies are Owned by one Person.
But comes with Significant Risk for him as if it goes wrong he loses his Money and gets little out of the thing.
And given that Braben himself just decided to Cut off Consoles from Development entirely. It is not unlikely that Braben himself already has decided not to put much more Effort or Money into Elite Dangerous Development.

 

[StuartGT]

Strange thing is that more Quest 2's than Xboxes were sold last year.

Units sold in 2021 look to be very similar, perhaps with Xbox slightly ahead. Playstation unit sales dwarf both.

I can't find newer data, but 10m Quest 2's had been sold by mid-November 2021:

Meta’s Oculus Quest 2 has shipped 10 million units, according to Qualcomm

Meta has finally hit its goal of 10 million users.

www.theverge.com

By end of 2021, 10.5m Xbox Series and 17m Playstation 5s had been sold:

PS5 Reportedly Sold Through 1.6 Times More Than Xbox Series X/S in 2021

PS5 vs Xbox Series X sales update: According to Ampere Analysis, Sony sold through 1.6 times more consoles in 2021 than Microsoft.

www.playstationlifestyle.net

A little under 1m Xbox One's were sold in 2021:

Xbox gaming consoles unit sales worldwide 2023| Statista

In 2023, the unit sales of Microsoft’s Xbox Series X and Series S video game consoles amounted to nearly 7.5 million units, decreasing considerably from just above the 8.65 million units sold in the previous year.

www.statista.com

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

My mate bought one after me saying how good it all was, he’s a life long gamer and introduced me to Elite back in the 80s. Was chatting to him at Christmas and he said “yeah no one uses it anymore” that’s him and his boys, the interest wave lasted about 2 months. It’s such a shame.

I love my vr headsets. bought 4 and still have 2. (rift DK2 and CV1 both sold and quest 2 and reverb G2 still hanging on my wall)

VR is fantastic and imo there is plenty of content to be worth getting a headset. PSVR2 is also promising.

I have played pushing 3000 hrs in ED. I would guess maybe 10 of those were on a flat screen. the rest in VR.

 

[BigBANGtheory [VR]]

After experiencing Elite in VR, I can say with confidence it is not my preferred way to play. It's cool to screw around in it for an hour or so every now and again, but whenever I want to play seriously I'll just stick to my monitor.

you need more horse power than an RX 580 and Ryzen 2700X thou, no way that's driving a G2 headset or above

 

[Dagwit]

I have played pushing 3000 hrs in ED. I would guess maybe 10 of those were on a flat screen. the rest in VR

I bought ED in part because you could play it with mouse and keyboard. Two weeks later I was the proud if significantly poorer owner of a Warthog, and shortly after that of an Oculus Rift.

I'd say that since then I haven't looked back, but of course with a VR headset you can.

 

[[DOOK] Droogie]

Tacos. I hope it's tacos.

 

[Robbie Rocketpants]

Thanks for the Finance Class. But I am well aware of how Shares Work.
But you unfortunately dont seem to Realize what Shares are at all.

You See. That is the thing.
Frontier did Issue Shares and Sold them. The Biggest Investor after Braben himself right now is Tencent.
And if Frontier wants additional Money in the Future to Develop the Game further they got 3 Choices.

1.
Sell more Shares of their Company. Which right now would be quite Horrible cause the Price has Plummeted. Thus also Signaling that Potential Investors right now dont believe the Game to really be worth Investing into.
Pls note. This can not just be Done by Issuing New Shares. But also by for example Braben Selling his own Shares.
Which is usually the Preferred Method. Because if you Issue New Shares you are extremely likely to Drop the Share Value unless your Company is really Kicking it Off High.
Which Frontier right now Certainly is not.
2.
Find Direct Investors which Fund another Extension, Update etc.
Which will of course look at such Shares and at the Companies Profits and ask themselves if this Game has the Potential to Grow.
And they will then Demand a Cut of these Profits. Also they wont Fund it unless they Expect this Cut the be Higher than what they Invested.
Which is the thing. Frontiers Reputation for Delivering on their Promises on Elite Dangerous is Trash right now.
Which means Finding any Investors to Fund further Development is likely already Difficult.
3.
Fund it completely from Existing Capital or from Personal Capital.
Existing Company Capital of course Requires that this Capital is Available and not otherwise planned for something.
Also it means that the Company itself Carries the Full Risk and in most cases will keep the Capital Low. Especially if they have Several Games.
Which means if Frontier has to Pay Future Updates entirely alone. This will likely result in Subpar Results of Development.
The other Option is for David Braben to Put his own Money on the Table. This is often done when Companies are Owned by one Person.
But comes with Significant Risk for him as if it goes wrong he loses his Money and gets little out of the thing.
And given that Braben himself just decided to Cut off Consoles from Development entirely. It is not unlikely that Braben himself already has decided not to put much more Effort or Money into Elite Dangerous Development.

You’re obviously as au fait with the world of finance as you are with the use of a shift key.

Whether tencent bought 8% of the stock at IPO or hoovered them up over the following years, they’re publicly traded so wouldn’t have been lining Frontier’s pockets.

Sales, game sales, pdlc sales. That is what makes revenue.
Revenue was up to nearly 50mil at the end of the calendar year, mainly due to the release of JWE2 in Nov. Apparently Dec was a record month for revenue.

And sorry to break it to you but ED factors little more than as a “keep the lights on” in their finance reporting.

 

[Erei]

Whether tencent bought 8% of the stock at IPO or hoovered them up over the following years, they’re publicly traded so wouldn’t have been lining Frontier’s pockets.

Tencent have been at 8% (roughly) for years. They have shares in about every game company nowadays, it's not surprising in the slightest. If they wanted to move on Fdev they would already have done so.

Sales, game sales, pdlc sales. That is what makes revenue.
Revenue was up to nearly 50mil at the end of the calendar year, mainly due to the release of JWE2 in Nov. Apparently Dec was a record month for revenue.

And sorry to break it to you but ED factors little more than as a “keep the lights on” in their finance reporting.

I'm sorry but you are not telling the full story :
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-stock-drops-most-ever-on-jurassic-world-woes
JWE2 did sell, but not as much as predicted.

U.K. gaming company Frontier Developments Plc said PC sales of “Jurassic World Evolution 2” were lower than expected

Jurassic World suffered from competition from other highly anticipated games being launched at a similar time, Frontier said, adding that sales of its space-themed “Elite Dangerous: Odyssey” game had been “more muted.”

The share itself has dropped by 2/3rd since may 21. It is as low as it was 2years ago. Generally a sign of poor result and uncertainty. Not to mention them losing their rating not too long ago, if I remember correctly.

As for other licenses, Lemnis Gate (a game they publish) is pretty much dead. From the reviews, their number (only 650ish, which is super low) and so on. JWE2 was officially lower than expected. EDO, as we know, didn't go very well, even a year later it's still suffering.
So, we are only left with the old Tycoon games, that have been operating for a while now, ED, and future release, when they come.



So yes, they have enough to keep going and it's not doom. But pretending they are in their best time and all is better than ever is simply untrue.

 

[Sunleader]

You’re obviously as au fait with the world of finance as you are with the use of a shift key.

Whether tencent bought 8% of the stock at IPO or hoovered them up over the following years, they’re publicly traded so wouldn’t have been lining Frontier’s pockets.

Sales, game sales, pdlc sales. That is what makes revenue.
Revenue was up to nearly 50mil at the end of the calendar year, mainly due to the release of JWE2 in Nov. Apparently Dec was a record month for revenue.

And sorry to break it to you but ED factors little more than as a “keep the lights on” in their finance reporting.

Sigh...
Thing is you seem to be reading a few News Articles and now think you know how Finances Work. And frankly you dont.

1.
It does not really matter if Tencent bought those Shares directly from Frontier or just from Public Market.
The Fact is that Frontier did give out these Shares and Received Money for them.
And Tencent now Owns these Shares. Which effectively Means they Own these 8% of the Companies Value.

And the Company Value is the Relevant Part right now.
Because the Price at which Shares are Valued Represents how Valuable Investors consider this Company to be as well as how likely they think it is that this Company will Grow in the Future.

Which means that the more Value your Shares lose. The less likely it is that you will get Money for Future Projects.

Already Wrote that Twice without you getting this. So let me Spell this out clearly.
This is NOT about what Money they got so far.
Its about what Money they can get in the FUTURE.


2.
Problem with that is that Revenue is not the same as Profits.
Revenue just means how much Money comes it.
Gladly this Info is halfwat Public.
So we know that while Frontier made 90 Million of Revenue. It only Produced a Profit of about 20 Million.
Frontier also states to have 40 Million of Free Capital for Future Investments.

Now. If this was the Numbers just for Elite Dangerous that would be quite Good.
But since this is the Combined Numbers for several Games its actually not as Good.

Because Games that Operate on a "Sell once" Basis do not Produce Continues Profits unless they get new DLCs and Extensions Added.
And right now the Shares Show that Investors are Convinced that Frontier is unlikely to really Produce much more Value in the Future.


3.
Thats the Problem Mate.
""And sorry to break it to you but ED factors little more than as a “keep the lights on” in their finance reporting.""
If this i True it means that ED is not Receiving any Notable Investments.

Because guess what.
A New Expansion needs a Dev Team to work on it in addition to just Keeping the Lights on.
Which Requires Money.

And According to Braben. Frontier is doing Major Development and wants to Bring really Big Features to Elite Dangerous in the Future.
So Question for you Mate.

How can it be that the Money going into Elite Dangerous is effectively little more than "keep the lights on" when Braben Claims that they are Developing Nonstop on all these Big Features he Promised ?

 

[StuartGT]

Your shift key is acting all funky. You might want to get that checked out.

 

[SP_Predicador]

How can it be that the Money going into Elite Dangerous is effectively little more than "keep the lights on" when Braben Claims that they are Developing Nonstop on all these Big Features he Promised ?

Sorry, but I can't understand why are you so naive about enterprise communication politics.

 

[Dragsham]

Get a g2 reverb or better.
Wack the sliders up to ultra.
2k per lense or better if you've a powerful card.
Monitor Windowed to 640x480 cos its almost irrelevant.
Run geforce experiences own elite optimiser, and overclock if u dare, with the suites own performance tweeker.
Steam slider set to default motion assist on.
BOOM!!
perfect.
I Poo u not.
I've only got a overlocked 3060. It's colour it's depth it's surreal and never ending frankly amazing vistas as u buzz about mission running.
Now l do the bgs. Nefariously.
We like to get things done. I play on foot in vr having configured it all to my hotas so I'm always headset on. Discord running too.
As does a quick button tap on my hotas straight to a pop up desktop mouse controlled inara edsm yada yada so on so forth. All in vr seamlessly flawlessly lush colour and a pitch black that's as real as it gets.
I spend alot of time smuggling. In Peanutz my cutter. The view .... its hard to convey.
Get a decent hmd and a good rig and you'll know then why we play elite in VR.

 

[Frank]

First it was Mac players:

Next it was VR players:

Now it's Console players:

Who do you thhink is next for the FDev guilotine?

You missed out the one from the very start. The Kickstarter promised us a cut-down solo version of the game which would be DRM free. Just before the launch we were told that, with a heavy heart, they would have to drop that solo version. Of course it should have been obvious to us that the DRM-free version was never going to happen seeing as we never saw it during the Alpha or the Beta. It was as if FDev had never worked on it at all, but decided to wait until the last minute before telling us

This might actually be a hope. One day David Braben will look at the returns from Elite Dangerous and decide, with a heavy heart, to shut down the servers. He might even tell us he's going to do it. But one of the things we were wailing and whinging about at the loss of the off-line version was what if he shut down the servers. His reply was that we shouldn't worry because if that happened he would give the complete game to us so that the fans could run it on their own servers

 

[Taimaru]

I've learnt in other aspects of my life to enjoy what I have now and anything positive that comes is a bonus.

So with regards to Elite Dangerous, I'm not expecting anything, but I'm still enjoying playing it. If Frontier release new content, either free or paid for, then I will enjoy that as well and I'm ready to buy new expansions when/if they come.

Frontier and Elite have never let me down and Elite Dangerous is my favourite game of all time. I love Odyssey, even though I don't really do the FPS part of it. Unlike some I don't have any performance issues (Intel i 7-1007K @ 3.8GHz, 32GB RAM, nVidia RTX 2060) although I welcome improvements in performace so other CMDR's can enjoy Odyssey.

 

[Mogen Teras]

And According to Braben. Frontier is doing Major Development and wants to Bring really Big Features to Elite Dangerous in the Future

He kind of HAS to say that, mostly for his investors. It's basic business 101; you don't make announcements to say "yeah we are gonna half-ass development for a while, idk haha"

Every time Braben has made some kind of claim about development lately, it has rung hollow. IDK why you'd trust his word anymore.