Nope, not even close. Frontier
have published the numbers, sort of. Their interim results presentation at
https://frontier-drupal.s3-eu-west-...rontier-fy25-interim-results-presentation.pdf has the necessary information, though it takes some interpreting.
- Page 5 has the revenue by franchise graph. It's marked in "years since initial release" so for Elite Dangerous the vertical bars fall at the start of November. Because of when it was published, the last data is for December 2024. Note that it's basically a constant slope between the 2023 and 2024 bars, and then upticks significantly just after that.
- Page 13 has an interesting - but unscaled - graph showing "extras" revenue for Elite Dangerous. You can see big spikes in income for this at the Python 2 and Type-8 releases, and then a larger boost around the Mandalay/Cobra V/also Powerplay stuff release.
- So that graph shows a 3-6x change in ARX income from the ship releases.
- But the graph on page 5 shows no discernible change in overall income from those first two ship releases.
- Conclusion: the ARX store must form a tiny fraction of the overall franchise income, or the 3-6x change in ARX income would be noticeable on the overall income graph
- Note also that the lead item on page 13 is that base game sales and player numbers have increased due to "ongoing narrative, new features" (which coincides with the big change in slope on the main income graph being the Trailblazers release / Thargoid attack on Sol, rather than with the start of their introduction of new ships)
It's possible that a
really successful ship sale like the Panther Clipper
might double Frontier's monthly income for the month it was released in. But they don't release ships every month, and the Panther has been unusually popular (judging by Inara ownership stats) for their early-access ships: most of them didn't get past the Cobra IV until
after the ARX-exclusive period ended.
The game has
technically been barely breaking even since about mid-2018, but in part that's because Frontier has very wide flexibility on how much they spend on development (could be a lot, as in the run-up to Odyssey ... could be less than that if it doesn't have as much income, as in 2023). That suggests that on a purely
operational basis it makes plenty of money, which Frontier then generally reinvest into more Elite Dangerous. Equally it suggests that Elite Dangerous will probably never again make a "profit" because it's unlikely to ever get to the point of making
so much revenue that they can't reasonably parallelise all the development it could theoretically pay for.
(This is not in
any way a sensible business decision to keep piling ED's income back into itself - their Management franchises all have much higher ROI expectations and performance - but they really like niche space sims or they wouldn't have built one in the first place)