General / Off-Topic Building a wall

Actually this is pretty much what the WH is saying now...the wall will be paid by a 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods. Guess I should buy the last Avocado I'm ever gonna eat.

so it will come down to who absorbs the cost. if the Mexicans cut their costs to keep the sticker price in the US the same, you could argue that they are paying.

on the other hand if the Mexicans keep the "price at the border" the same the sticker piece will go up on those goods.

if that makes the goods more expensive than other non Mexican goods then it's possible the sales of Mexican goods will fall but that money isn't taken from Mexico any more than I've taken £250k from Rolls Royce by not buying a Rolls Royce.

from the US consumer's point of view, Avocado's or whatever just got more expensive because either the Mexican ones are still the cheapest but 20% more or Mexican ones are more expensive than the US (or other) ones so you buy US ones but they are more expensive than the Mexican ones used to be. this assumes that Mexican goods can be substituted for US or there goods or that price is the only variable.

if the best/only avocados are Mexican then all that's happened is avocados get more expensive.... to pay for a wall
 
if the best/only avocados are Mexican then all that's happened is avocados get more expensive.... to pay for a wall

Avocado was probably a bad one to pick. Avocados grown in the US are almost entirely consumed by the states that grow them...California. If people in the rest of the country want Avocados they get them from Mexico or pay a premium for Californian. Anyway...here be the numbers

Mexico was the United States' 3rd largest supplier of goods imports in 2015.

U.S. goods imports from Mexico totaled $295 billion in 2015, up 0.2% ($667 million) from 2014, and up 73% from 2005. U.S. imports from Mexico are up 638% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. imports from Mexico are up 638% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA).

The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2015 were: vehicles ($74 billion), electrical machinery ($63 billion), machinery ($49 billion), mineral fuels ($14 billion), and optical and medical instruments ($12 billion).

U.S. imports of agricultural products from Mexico totaled $21 billion in 2015, our 2nd largest supplier of agricultural imports. Leading categories include: fresh vegetables ($4.8 billion), other fresh fruit ($4.3 billion), wine and beer ($2.7 billion), snack foods ($1.7 billion), and processed fruit & vegetables ($1.4 billion).

U.S. imports of services from Mexico were an estimated $21.6 billion in 2015, 11.0% ($2.1 billion) more than 2014, and 50.0% greater than 2005 levels. It was up roughly 191% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). Based on 2014, leading services imports from Mexico to the U.S. were in the travel, transportation, and technical and other services sectors.
 
It will never be finished. They'll do a few miles that look imposing...take some pictures of American workers getting the job done...Donnie will put on a hard hat for a photo shoot and then it will be forgotten after the companies that got the sweet no bid contract deals walk off with billions of dollars and an unfinished wall.

Now, it might be possible to get Mexico to pay for it. I assume Trump will hold access to the American market hostage until Mexico pays for the wall. However, it won't be that easy. China is already moving in on Mexico and making diplomatic progress. Mexico will have trade deals with China and won't need to trade with the US anymore.

That is one way to kill a trade deficit.

There is no way Mexico is going to pay for that. What on Earth makes you think they would?

I'll be very disappointed if the wall isn't painted gold btw.

- - - Updated - - -

Ex president Fox of Mexico responded (live) to news that Trump wants to put 20% on all Mexican goods by saying the Mexico will put 20% tax on all USA goods.

USA export far more to Mexico than Mexico to USA.

In a trade war everybody tends to lose.
 
Avocado was probably a bad one to pick. Avocados grown in the US are almost entirely consumed by the states that grow them...California. If people in the rest of the country want Avocados they get them from Mexico or pay a premium for Californian. Anyway...here be the numbers

actually, doesn't that back up my point?

if most of the avocados in, say, Texas are Mexican at $1 each or Californian at $2 each then the tariff will just mean avocado's will now cost $1.20 for Mexican or $2 for Californian.

if the price of Californian avocados was only $1.15, then Mexican Avocados might need to cut their "at the border" price to keep the supermarket price below California avocados say Mexican avocados now cost $1.10.

Ultimately avocados have just gone up by 10%.
 
There is no way Mexico is going to pay for that. What on Earth makes you think they would?

I'll be very disappointed if the wall isn't painted gold btw.

Well.
Its a Question of Labeling.
According to Trump Mexico will Pay the Wall in the form of Import and Transaction Taxes.

Short any Transaction from USA to Mexico will be Taxed. And any Import from Mexico to the USA will be Taxed.
And this will be labeled as "Payment for the Wall"

Effectively the ones Paying the Wall will be American Companies and People Importing Goods from Mexico. As well as anyone who for whatever Reason moves Money to Mexico. This will hit alot of Mexican Immigrants. But also alot of Americans and American Companies.
But well. He can label it as "Mexico Pays for the Wall" ^^
 
Now, it might be possible to get Mexico to pay for it. I assume Trump will hold access to the American market hostage until Mexico pays for the wall. However, it won't be that easy. China is already moving in on Mexico and making diplomatic progress. Mexico will have trade deals with China and won't need to trade with the US anymore.

Your post reminds me of the UK and the EU. Why to trade with people who are in thousands of kilometers, when we have a huge market with our immediate neighbors. I see already the fanboys of "Remain" criticizing the UK and applauding Mexico

:p
 
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Your post reminds me of the UK and the EU. Why to trade with people who are in thousands of kilometers, when we have a huge market with our immediate neighbors. I see already the fanboys of "Remain" criticizing the UK and applauding Mexico

:p
I think you make the point well.

it will be very hard for any nation to make up trade lost to it's neighbour by increasing trade with a country far away.

it will be hard for Mexico to make up for trade lost to the US because of tariffs by cutting tariffs with China.

Influence is another matter. if the US pees off Mexico and China comes in making nice noises, then China may have an ally on America's door step.

what happens if the US squeezes trade hard with Mexico and China says "here's some money, we'd love to lease a port and airbase from you for 99 years for the $10bn a year the US tariffs and restrictions are costing you.

Voilà a Chinese naval base and airstrip 100 with troops, ground and air defences 100 miles from the US mainland.......
 
I think you make the point well.

it will be very hard for any nation to make up trade lost to it's neighbour by increasing trade with a country far away.

it will be hard for Mexico to make up for trade lost to the US because of tariffs by cutting tariffs with China.

Influence is another matter. if the US pees off Mexico and China comes in making nice noises, then China may have an ally on America's door step.

what happens if the US squeezes trade hard with Mexico and China says "here's some money, we'd love to lease a port and airbase from you for 99 years for the $10bn a year the US tariffs and restrictions are costing you.

Voilà a Chinese naval base and airstrip 100 with troops, ground and air defences 100 miles from the US mainland.......

A brilliant future emerges at present for the world

:)
 
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Actually this is pretty much what the WH is saying now...the wall will be paid by a 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods. Guess I should buy the last Avocado I'm ever gonna eat.

Aaaannd they have walked this back...not three hours since it came out. The White House is in a tailspin and I'm worried where they are going to crash.
 
Aaaannd they have walked this back...not three hours since it came out. The White House is in a tailspin and I'm worried where they are going to crash.

Well, Trump is literally off his rocker. Psychiatrists have also speculated that it's quite likely he's suffering from dementia. His lifestyle makes it likely, and his dad succumbed at about that age.
 
Aaaannd they have walked this back...not three hours since it came out. The White House is in a tailspin and I'm worried where they are going to crash.

When? I haven't gotten this news yet in Canada. Maybe they saw all our posts and the information we keep all quoting and showing. /sarcasm
 
actually, doesn't that back up my point?

if most of the avocados in, say, Texas are Mexican at $1 each or Californian at $2 each then the tariff will just mean avocado's will now cost $1.20 for Mexican or $2 for Californian.

if the price of Californian avocados was only $1.15, then Mexican Avocados might need to cut their "at the border" price to keep the supermarket price below California avocados say Mexican avocados now cost $1.10.

Ultimately avocados have just gone up by 10%.

Yes, of course, not sure where my head was going. I've got 5 projects in various forms of disarray on my board and I think I've gone a bit...scattered.

Anyway...the administration has walked back the tariff plan as an example of possible options to pay for the wall. I'm guessing Trump is going to find a way to make building the wall an emergency in national security so he can spend money without congressional approval.
 

Well.
If the USA wasnt the Largest Economic Power in the World. I would give him Right.
Because any other Country needs Import Taxes as they otherwise cannot possibly Compete with Countries that are Bigger than themselves and thus can get Skilled Personnel and Ressource Cheaper.

But for the USA as the Sole Country on this Planet. This Policy is pretty stupid.
The USA Runs a Trade Deficit because it keeps Stockpiling insane amounts of Ressources. Not because its not able to Compete on the Market.
Adding a Border Tax for Imports to the USA will not only Force other Countries to add bigger Taxes against the USA to remain capable of Competing.
It will also mean that the Imports for the USA are more Expensive.

This will surely reduce the Trade Deficit.
Thing is it wont do so by Increasing Exports and Create more Jobs in the USA. But by Decreasing Imports and lowering the Living Standard of Workers while reducing Exports as well.
 
Well.
If the USA wasnt the Largest Economic Power in the World. I would give him Right.
Because any other Country needs Import Taxes as they otherwise cannot possibly Compete with Countries that are Bigger than themselves and thus can get Skilled Personnel and Ressource Cheaper.

But for the USA as the Sole Country on this Planet. This Policy is pretty stupid.
The USA Runs a Trade Deficit because it keeps Stockpiling insane amounts of Ressources. Not because its not able to Compete on the Market.
Adding a Border Tax for Imports to the USA will not only Force other Countries to add bigger Taxes against the USA to remain capable of Competing.
It will also mean that the Imports for the USA are more Expensive.

This will surely reduce the Trade Deficit.
Thing is it wont do so by Increasing Exports and Create more Jobs in the USA. But by Decreasing Imports and lowering the Living Standard of Workers while reducing Exports as well.

This is what is called a trade war and a trade war cannot be won by a single country, not even the USA.
 
This is what is called a trade war and a trade war cannot be won by a single country, not even the USA.

Unless of course, that country wants to insularise and not trade. Becoming increasingly reliant upon local resources and self-sufficiency, aiming to produce and consume entirely within it's own borders, and hermit itself from the outside world by discouraging trade, travel, and international integration.

Organic supply and demand can be simply countered by increasing spending (both in natural resources, meatbag resources, and increasingly meaningless cash) on the military until there becomes a point where consuming, producing, and spending becomes a patriotic duty.

Hmmm - I wonder if anywhere else has ever tried that?
 
Unless of course, that country wants to insularise and not trade. Becoming increasingly reliant upon local resources and self-sufficiency, aiming to produce and consume entirely within it's own borders, and hermit itself from the outside world by discouraging trade, travel, and international integration.

Organic supply and demand can be simply countered by increasing spending (both in natural resources, meatbag resources, and increasingly meaningless cash) on the military until there becomes a point where consuming, producing, and spending becomes a patriotic duty.

Hmmm - I wonder if anywhere else has ever tried that?

I assume you mean North Korea?

They get significant help from China so it isn't entirely insular. Who would play that role for the USA?
 
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