Bulk Tax Investigation in 3.6

1580831449921.png

Executive Summary

Tax kicks in progressively from 1T of cargo, reaching a cap anywhere up to 700T of cargo (varies). Tax rate also varies. The Bulk Tax does not appear to apply if there is zero demand[4], or there is a lot of demand [1] - in those cases only a flat price is seen.

Example
Here's a example of the sell price you can get for differing amounts of cargo (same goods, same station) that illustrates the effect of the tax. Once you hit a certain amount of cargo the price you are offered levels out[2]. Remember these are examples - different commodities seem to do the same thing - but the numbers will differ.

1580723175254.png

Another way of looking at this is to look at the 'tax' at each Cargo amount[5]:
1580723549453.png


Knowing this basic form for Bulk Tax we can simplify gathering data on the actual cargo amounts that attract maximum tax and also the amounts of the tax. The following table gives information on several goods at different stations.

  • Empty Cargo Price is the price offered if you try and sell with no cargo onboard
  • Bulk Price is the price offered if you exceed the amount of cargo to hit the minimum (bulk) price offer
  • Calculated Max Cargo is the minimum cargo to have on-board to attract the bulk price
  • Tax rate is the % taken from the 'Empty Cargo Price' when you hit maximum tax
  • Tax amount is the difference between the taxed and untaxed sell prices
From the small sample of tested goods we can see that despite Agronomics and Palladium having the same demand they have different cargo and tax thresholds, so neither threshold is based purely upon Demand. More work is needed to work out what the thresholds are based upon as there is no correlation with commodity price or demand or even commodity type. There may be something based upon local economy type or state, as these numbers were collected across multiple systems.

1580724280823.png


Summary

What does this mean? Well, it means the bulk tax starts to kick in at 1T of cargo, and that having smaller amounts of cargo will attract a smaller tax - but it seems that the amount that attracts less tax varies - and the amount of that tax also varies. Since you can't get 'below' the bulk tax it is probably best to just ignore it 🤷‍♀️

Collecting this data
The Sell Price in the market is only updated 10 minutes after you change what is in your hold. The 'easy' way to look at these numbers is:
  1. Visit a market with no cargo and identify something with low demand - note down the 'Empty Price'
  2. Go and fill your hold with the commodity (preferably at least 180T - the more you carry the higher the Max Cargo you can detect)
  3. Back to the original market - note the new sell price. If this is the same as (1) then there is no bulk tax (possibly the demand is high enough to stop it happening). The number you get now is the 'Bulk Price'
  4. Abandon 1T of cargo (do not sell it as this may change the market!) (Right Panel -> Cargo -> select Cargo -> Abandon / Destroy)
  5. Wait 10 minutes after the sale - and exit the station menus
  6. Look at the market - if the sell price is the same then you are definitely on the 'bulk tax plateaux'. If the price went up then you are on the 'slope' of the above charts and cannot measure the Max Cargo (it is above the amount of cargo you have on board)
  7. If you were on the 'plateaux' in (6) then sell all but 25T of the commodity
  8. Wait 10 minutes - and exit the station menus
  9. Look at the sell price - this will normally be more than the bulk price - if it is you have a point on the slope and can use this as your 'between price' and 'between cargo'. If it is still the bulk price then sell more until you are not on the bulk price (remembering to wait 10 minute until you check!).
  10. Now you have 'Bulk Price', 'Empty Price', 'Between price' and 'Between cargo'. You can work out the cargo where the Bulk Price kicks in (the 'knee' in the charts) using the formula: ('Bulk Price' - 'Empty Price') * 'Between Cargo' / ('Between price' - 'Empty Price').[3]
Notes
[1] No price changes seen with 190T and 100k demand, though I guess it's just about possible the 'tax' was < 1CR 🤔
[2] Some tests were done in a 750T cutter. No changes in the tax rate were seen, and those data points are omitted as they 'hide' the initial ramp.
[3] This sounds complicated, it may be easier to look at the earlier charts and think through how you would find the inflection point (knee) for yourself as the math is simpler than the written explanation :D
[4] Quite possibly all cargo in the zero Demand case attract a bulk price, so you never see the 'full' price, but as there is only a single price you can see this is somewhat moot
[5] Note that the line does not actually go towards 0 tax for 0 cargo, but it is close enough that I have ignored this

Still to do
  • Look at where the Demand starts be high enough that the Bulk Tax only applies fully 'above' Cutter cargo load sizes. ('somewhere between 500 and 1,500 looks likely')
  • Collect more data points and try to work out what is influencing the 'knee' point (and what isn't). Maybe.

That's all I have for now. So shoot me down - for science!
 
Last edited:
That's all I have for now. So shoot me down - for science!
Nice!

Things that I can think of which could make a difference:

1) Where is the current demand? Is it at 100% of baseline or not? [1]
2) What proportion of current demand is 100t?
3) How much discount does the good suffer at 0% demand? (Palladium and Silver seem to be barely affected by demand%, in my experience, whereas Non-Lethal Weapons and Consumer Tech have significant variation)


(It certainly explains why, whichever of Coffee and Animal Meat I haul, they always have better prices for the other one when I get there. I shall have to try hauling half-each...)

[1] If it's not at baseline, for faster goods it may change over the course of the experiment.

I'm working on regenerating baseline data for Colonia after the 3.6 changes at the moment, but I need a lot more data for that - though the new disasters are helping by mixing up the states a bit more.
 
[1] If it's not at baseline, for faster goods it may change over the course of the experiment.
Yeah - I'm in a rarely travelled area to try and reduce external effects and the chance of drive-bys and tend to check the '0 cargo' price at the start and the end - if I saw it (or demand) move I would consider the data flawed. Checking the markets takes a while (around 40 minutes), but that's not long in the scheme of things.
 
Some more data points added:

1580810343250.png


Interesting (well, to me!) is the last row - the Bulk Tax only kicks in at 700+ units (I tested a few locations which had 1500 demand and could not find 'top' of the bulk tax). While I had 700+ T onboard the Animal Meat (which was showing the top demand bracket) was selling for a loss because the Bulk Tax took so much off the price (later on when I had less Animal Meat on board I could see a profit).

I'm tempted to say that the cargo level where the Bulk Tax flattens out is set per commodity, with commodity groups mostly having the same multiplier. If you check the last column 'Max Cargo / Demand' you can see the (yellow) Food commodities all reach their bulk taxed minimum price at around 0.5 (and Mined Minerals (blue) are at 0.75). This means (for example) that with a foodstuff at 100 demand then you reach the full bulk tax at with a cargo of 50. Food Cartridges (which should be under Food) have a different multiplier - and the processed metals (Palladium / Silver) also look different, so at the moment I'm thinking each commodity can be tweaked (by fdev) by itself (also explains I guess why LTD were accidentally excluded from the 'nerf').

Still not seeing what affects the taxation rate - similar demands and commodities show different rates.
 
Nice work @Factabulous - I'm deeply intrigued by all this despite myself.

Have you done any research on that stuff from 2015 about the tax not applying at Shinrarta? What happens if you sell VO's at Jameson Memorial. Does it make any difference there how much you have in your hold?
 
Nice work @Factabulous - I'm deeply intrigued by all this despite myself.

Have you done any research on that stuff from 2015 about the tax not applying at Shinrarta? What happens if you sell VO's at Jameson Memorial. Does it make any difference there how much you have in your hold?
Easy enough to test - get a VO - look at the market price. Discard the VO and wait 10 minutes, then check the price again - if it went down the you are being taxed. I'm not investigating edge cases like that at the moment - still need to work out what influences the tax rate as that seems all over the place so need more data to understand it.

Edit: Of course I meant UP, not down - if you have less cargo then you should be offered more CR/T.

I'm going to go totally 5D and ponder if the bulk tax has a hook into the economic BGS states.
The basic prices of commodities are already affected by the BGS states, soI guess the tax rate could be as well. I'm planning more research where I will collect more details of the markets so I can look at that type of correlation.
 
Last edited:
If it's based on where the good is on the demand line, then by default it does, since the economic states (and the others, for that matter) may rescale the demand line, so that selling the same number of tonnes has a greater or lesser effect on position.

What I mean is, with things like bust, boom and the newer 'unconnected' states (i.e. we don't know what inputs they take). It would be interesting to see if paying more tax increases the chances of a state, and paying less influences others. Although a nonsense example, like paying more tax leading to a public holiday (i.e. the tax being a secondary effect has implications for secondary states).

But then it is probably that its all built into selling right now as you say.
 
Easy enough to test - get a VO - look at the market price. Discard the VO and wait 10 minutes, then check the price again - if it went down the you are being taxed. I'm not investigating edge cases like that at the moment - still need to work out what influences the tax rate as that seems all over the place so need more data to understand it.
Fair enough. Alas I'm currently engaged in another planetary circumnavigation but I'll add "test taxation at Jameson Memorial" to my list of things to do.

Sheesh ... "test taxation" ... has it really come to this that my todo list reads like the opening crawl of Phantom Menace?

:ROFLMAO:
 
I wondered if the bulk tax differences represented how the commodity responded to being between 0% and 100% demand - that also does flatten out the price before hitting 0%.

Natural experiments at stations with sufficient traffic are rare, unfortunately.

Here's a small Animal Meat one.

Interestingly - and contrary to what I previously thought - the bulk tax hits do seem to show up in the journal. Some noticeable spikes downwards there.

Also interestingly, the price with the bulk tax is significantly lower than the price after the sale takes place - it's not just trying to simulate "well, you won't get the same price for the last tonne that you get for the first", it appears to take considerably more than that, at least for Animal Meat, almost as if the entire lot was being sold for 0 demand, even though less than that is actually being sold.

(It could be bugged, of course!)


This one may also be interesting for Personal Weapons:
You can see the price responding to small sales and recoveries - now that someone has completely filled the demand, however, the price isn't moving at all in the early stages.

I've seen similar elsewhere - though with supply rather than demand - for the flattening happening before 0%
The price maxes out once it gets down to about 25% supply, and doesn't start dropping again until it gets above that
 
Top Bottom