There's always a pretty general mix of both "casual" and "invested" players on both sides, with the winning side usually having significantly more of both: a mid-range "top 10%" player is outfighting about 20 casual "top 75%" players; it's the top 10% players on the other side that stop them walking over the competition. If you had a CG which was genuinely split so that the top 25% of high-performance players were almost all on one side and the bottom 75% were almost all on the other side, the minority would win and it wouldn't even be close. Top 10% versus bottom 90% would still be a close win for the top 10% in most CGs. If you lose by more than 2:1 (and almost all losses are!) which side the casual players picked was utterly irrelevant.
This CG was highly unusual in that the more invested players fought slightly harder on the losing side - but even then, a top 10% Chapters player was only a few million better than a top 10% Federal player, and the Federation had a lot more players working at that top 10% level.
I don't think Frontier are pretending that the other factors aren't there at all. They're very definitely setting up situations where there's not an obvious good option: do you back the creepy scientist who is very definitely not telling us something important, or the loose cannon military officer taking it upon himself to be judge, jury and executioner? Do you back the self-avowed terrorist group blowing up starports in the name of democracy, or the totalitarian but stylish dictatorship they're fighting against? Can you make a decision without having the full information, based on hints and subtext?
It's not likely that the alternative they had sketched out if Tanner had won would have been a good outcome - it would just have e.g. led to a different crisis where something else goes wrong, the Thargoids set fire to Sol to stop Aegis collecting artifacts there, and a dying Salvation says "if you'd just let me build the superweapon I could have stopped this!"
In last week's CG, of course, Hudson is playing the role of the hot-headed militarist launching an illegal [1] attack based purely on suspicion, and the Far God Cult are playing the role of the weird but harmless defenders. So who knows where people think the nuance is pointing here?
(As an aside on the nuance, I think the ability of players to generate large amounts of tinfoil often gets in the way of spotting the actual subtexts Frontier are putting in. Blaming everything on The Club, especially...)
[1] Well, probably not technically illegal by 3308 laws.
Hmm, I'm not sure how much story investment can be assumed from all that but I see where you are coming from and appreciate the insight as always. I realise there's no way to ultimately balance it with the structure we have, just find it a shame that when there is a clear effort on the part of a smaller group it can be so easily dismissed. I do think that sometimes Frontier pretend other factors didn't exist, as do players, and present a choice later on as more binary than it was at the time. There have been comments in their streams to that effect before.
On Tanner my point wasn't to suggest that going the other way would result in a more moral outcome, just that it's wrong to spin it later as if those complexities of right and wrong didn't exist. That was my only point there.
In answer to the question "Can you make a decision without having the full information, based on hints and subtext?" I can but I find that unsatisfying if the process doesn't at least inform a little. Clues and hints are one thing but there could be more balance there, having a bit more to make a judgement with so it feels less like being led by the nose and trying to decide what is genuine in the first place, only to have to jump to conclusions in any event which makes such an exercise feel a bit pointless. There's a middle ground between drip feeding the bare minimum and spoon feeding. It could use some work.
I don't know how much tinfoil gets in the way but it's an interesting point. I can only say that for me if The Club is still around then they haven't exactly had a lot of success in the current narrative, especially if we assume they are behind Sirius particularly. On the contrary has anything Sirius done worked out for them lately?
- They host a superpower conference to thrash out a common AX strategy and it gets put on hold after the NMLA attack and never resumed, leaving the superpowers as useless as they were without the effort the players made to deliver goods and fight pirates to make the conference happen. Sirius also fought tooth and nail to hold the conference instead of anyone else doing it, and it all came to nothing in the end. Since then almost the diametric opposite has happened with one superpower going full on isolationist, another helplessly lashing out at its own citizens in a tacit admission that they have no answers for the bigger problems and the third in a partnership with a company whose CV is a catalogue of plans that came to nothing. None of which inspires me that any of them have a clue. If that's the point consider it received loud and clear.
- Delaine is also at the conference and there are hints that he and Sirius have some kind of business arrangement but if they do it doesn't appear to benefit either of them. Sirius seem to do little if anything to help him grow and his best chance is undercut by a pharmaceutical company and his own people.
- The terraforming of ammonia worlds in the Coalsack sector was an unmitigated failure, whether we believe the aim really was terraforming or if it was a smokescreen for capturing a live Thargoid/other Thargoid stuff. Either way it was another project that went nowhere and again was well supported by players.
- Sirius have yet to prove themselves with their AX partnership, I suppose this week will be the first step to seeing how well it works out for them, but even if they can repel the odd Interceptor fleet they have nothing that independent AX pilots cannot already do. On that note I find it ironic that we have gone from the admission that megaships were not the best thing to fight Thargoids with a few years ago to 2 of the superpowers pinning their hopes on them now, apparently without a hint of self awareness.
So unless I am missing something it would seem that the entirety of The Club's achievements, and by extension those of Sirius, in the last few years can be summed up as "much ado about nothing."