Expansion - Number of minor factions in target system

Greetings,

haven't been at BGS for quite some time and can't find an answer on this question:

Previously there was (IIRC) some 'rule' about a triggered expansion going to the nearest system with 6 or less minor factions. <- Right?

Can't find any systems with less than 7 minor factions around. Was there an increase in minor factions in the last months per system or is this coincidental?

How can I determine which system my 50.000 inhabitants will force their will on?

Thanks a lot!
 
How can I determine which system my 50.000 inhabitants will force their will on?
The expansion order is as follows:
1) Systems with <7 factions, you have not previously retreated
2) Systems with <7 factions, you have previously retreated
3) Systems with 7 factions, you have not previously retreated
4) Systems with 7 factions, you have previously retreated
5) No expansion, range boost for next time
Within each category, pick the closest system in a straight line distance

If the system has 7 factions already, then this is an Invasion, rather than a normal Expansion - and you will immediately enter a conflict with a non-native faction in that system. If all non-native factions in that system are already in conflicts, then you skip the system and go elsewhere instead.

Your normal expansion range is a 20LY cube, centred on your expansion source, and aligned to the map grid. This means that you can have a system on a diagonal of the cube be "in range" at a much larger straight line distance than one on an axis of the cube is - which can mean you appear to skip a closer system in favour of a more distant one.

If you happen to be in the Colonia region - just guessing based on the 50,000 population, which is extremely common in Colonia and extremely rare in the bubble - you can ask CensusBot to calculate this all for you.

Was there an increase in minor factions in the last months per system or is this coincidental?
There have been a few effects which can all lead to this:

1) More PMFs have been added to the game, so the average number of native factions per system has risen a bit, and as PMFs tend to be expansionist, so probably has total factions per system.
2) The changes in 3.3 have made Retreats harder to get to stick in high-traffic systems (though in some ways easier in low-traffic systems), especially without specific support so in the busier parts of the bubble systems are likely to stay fuller
3) At least a few PMFs have been deliberately trying to fill up space around their systems to restrict the possibilities for new PMFs to be added or existing PMFs to get closer.

Or it might, depending on where you are, just be coincidence.
 
Oh, I should add that there's a couple of exceptions, which may or may not be important to you:

- permit-locked systems are much harder to expand into. Exactly what this means hasn't been properly tested, to my knowledge.
- certain systems (superpower capitals, Shinrarta, Colonia, Ratraii, detention centres, almost certainly the new player zone that got added a couple of months ago, maybe a couple of others) are impossible to expand into (but some can be expanded out of)
 
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