Looks like we have a couple of us on PS4 who are going to buckball our butts out there in the next couple days. Woo!
Exploration - When worlds colide
- Thread starter Ben Ryder
- Start date
Now I'm curious if the PS4 Galaxy is in sync with the PC Galaxy.
I know there are some differences between the different platforms. Hopefully they aren't too different.
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At ~7 hrs per 0.01ls it should switch over to reading in Mm sometime tomorrow afternoon.
Last time, I calculated 68.7151 hours (2d 20h 42m) from the point where the reading changed to 30.0Mm exactly, which was at 20:11:21 on 12 Oct
The actual collision time ended up being ~90 minutes earlier, at ~15:23 on 15 Oct
This matches up with my calculation earlier today, putting the collision on Monday afternoon. Sorry guys.
But remember, we could be off by >7 hours with the current distance reading and the closing speed is not a constant. I'll have a more accurate prediction tomorrow
As I recall from last time, the reading didn't stay at 0.10Ls as long as it was at 0.11Ls. It switched to 30Mm not long after getting to 0.10ls.
I assume this is due to rounding.
0.10ls = 29.9792Mm
30Mm = 0.100069ls
So I figure at ~0.106ls it rounds up to 0.11 and at ~0.104ls it rounds down to 0.10.
It probably switched to 30.0Mm when it reached ~0.10023601ls, rounding down from 30.05Mm
So we may get increased accuracy by assuming the point when the numbers change are being rounded from the halfway point.
Resources...
Date and Time Calculator
Duration Calculator
Light Seconds to Mega Meters
2C has a radius of 1,108 km. 2B has a radius of 1,347 km
I had a 67.7 hours average speed of 0.001391 Ls/hr or 0.416983 Mm/hr
After the readings changed to Mm, I got a 33.8 hours average of 0.423599 Mm/hr
The 0.423599 Mm/hr speed predicted closer to the actual collision time.
Once you get a distance reading in Mm, subtract the other moon's radius and then divide by the approach speed of 0.423599 Mm/hr to figure out how many hours remain until contact.
You may also want to try to figure the approach speed but remember, it varies, so you need to average over a full orbit which is ~1.4 days
I don't have any reason to think the orbital speeds have changed but it would be good to get confirmation that they are approaching at the same rate as before.
Last time, I calculated 68.7151 hours (2d 20h 42m) from the point where the reading changed to 30.0Mm exactly, which was at 20:11:21 on 12 Oct
The actual collision time ended up being ~90 minutes earlier, at ~15:23 on 15 Oct
This matches up with my calculation earlier today, putting the collision on Monday afternoon. Sorry guys.
But remember, we could be off by >7 hours with the current distance reading and the closing speed is not a constant. I'll have a more accurate prediction tomorrow
As I recall from last time, the reading didn't stay at 0.10Ls as long as it was at 0.11Ls. It switched to 30Mm not long after getting to 0.10ls.
I assume this is due to rounding.
0.10ls = 29.9792Mm
30Mm = 0.100069ls
So I figure at ~0.106ls it rounds up to 0.11 and at ~0.104ls it rounds down to 0.10.
It probably switched to 30.0Mm when it reached ~0.10023601ls, rounding down from 30.05Mm
So we may get increased accuracy by assuming the point when the numbers change are being rounded from the halfway point.
Resources...
Date and Time Calculator
Duration Calculator
Light Seconds to Mega Meters
2C has a radius of 1,108 km. 2B has a radius of 1,347 km
I had a 67.7 hours average speed of 0.001391 Ls/hr or 0.416983 Mm/hr
After the readings changed to Mm, I got a 33.8 hours average of 0.423599 Mm/hr
The 0.423599 Mm/hr speed predicted closer to the actual collision time.
Once you get a distance reading in Mm, subtract the other moon's radius and then divide by the approach speed of 0.423599 Mm/hr to figure out how many hours remain until contact.
You may also want to try to figure the approach speed but remember, it varies, so you need to average over a full orbit which is ~1.4 days
I don't have any reason to think the orbital speeds have changed but it would be good to get confirmation that they are approaching at the same rate as before.
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sadly i will not be able to see the collision because i have other things i need to do
I expect it's reading in Mm by now. Hooman? Anyone else on site to get a distance reading?
I'm at 2C and reading 0.10 LS to 2B.
Close then. Should switch over to 30Mm soon.
If you could get an accurate timestamp when it does that would be great. If you miss 30.0Mm it should tick down 0.1Mm within 12 minutes.
Need the In Game Clock time at the precise point where the numbers change.
From 30.0Mm, we should be looking at between 67.642 hours and 68.835 hours. (Depending on distance rounding error and average speed error)
If you could get an accurate timestamp when it does that would be great. If you miss 30.0Mm it should tick down 0.1Mm within 12 minutes.
Need the In Game Clock time at the precise point where the numbers change.
From 30.0Mm, we should be looking at between 67.642 hours and 68.835 hours. (Depending on distance rounding error and average speed error)
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Currently on my way to the system, about 19000ly away. When I get there we can check how close the PS4 galaxy is to the PC.
Before 1:37 IGT it turned to 30 Mm. Missed the switch because I tried to configure live stream.
Now 29.9 Mm at 1:38.
Not sure if it works: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi0tsyyiQNE
AFK for a bit. Cooking dinner and such. Back later. But check if live stream works.
Now 29.9 Mm at 1:38.
Not sure if it works: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi0tsyyiQNE
AFK for a bit. Cooking dinner and such. Back later. But check if live stream works.
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Watching the stream, but with that resolution, I can't tell an 8 from a 9. Waiting for 29.7
Also, you're 72.3Km? from the surface of C?
Update: Got what I needed. You can end the stream if you want. Thanks a lot for doing that.
The reading changed to 29.7Mm at precisely 1:56:46 on Feb 24 2018 GMT.
29.6Mm at 02:07:47
29.4Mm at 02:29:43
Closing 0.3Mm in 1977 seconds
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The last time the distance was at 29.7Mm was at 20:36:40 on Oct 12 2017
That's 134 days, 5 hours, 20 minutes and 6 seconds
or 3221 hours or 193,280 minutes
Adding that to the date and time of the last collision, I get Monday, February 26, 2018 at 8:43:00 pm
Accounting for the altitude where the reading was taken and the radius of the B moon ...
I get a Surface to surface distance of between 28.4253Mm and 28.4753Mm depending on rounding error, at exactly 01:56:46
Based on the average speed of approach, that would be somewhere between 67.104 hours and 68.289 hours.
Or Monday, February 26, 2018 between 9:02:46 pm and 10:13:46 pm
That's 134 days, 5 hours, 20 minutes and 6 seconds
or 3221 hours or 193,280 minutes
Adding that to the date and time of the last collision, I get Monday, February 26, 2018 at 8:43:00 pm
Accounting for the altitude where the reading was taken and the radius of the B moon ...
I get a Surface to surface distance of between 28.4253Mm and 28.4753Mm depending on rounding error, at exactly 01:56:46
Based on the average speed of approach, that would be somewhere between 67.104 hours and 68.289 hours.
Or Monday, February 26, 2018 between 9:02:46 pm and 10:13:46 pm
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Ugh...that will be 16:00 EST on Monday, which will be tricky for me to make it home from in time.
Time to start scheming....
Time to start scheming....
Remember, I can't guarantee the accuracy of these numbers. Could be sooner, could be later but I have high confidence it will be in the ballpark give or take a couple of hours.
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Same issue for me as I have to be at work about the same time these are colliding. Well, at least I can get a picture of my ship between them this weekend.
Found the geysers on 2C!
And yeah, found them with the SLF with visual detection only (too low for POIs!)
That bit was dumb luck really. I have been searching for the geysers for the past couple of days off and on, and I just finished orbital glide and found nothing, but I came up short of the area that I wanted to scan, so I hopped in the SLF and few low along the ground and dove into this crater/canyon (not a crater, but is more of a hole in the ground than a canyon) along the rim and almost forgot to pull up in time because I was so caught off guard that my quarry was right in front of me!
Here's another img with the coordinates:
Oh and 2b is still 27MM or so away.
And yeah, found them with the SLF with visual detection only (too low for POIs!)
That bit was dumb luck really. I have been searching for the geysers for the past couple of days off and on, and I just finished orbital glide and found nothing, but I came up short of the area that I wanted to scan, so I hopped in the SLF and few low along the ground and dove into this crater/canyon (not a crater, but is more of a hole in the ground than a canyon) along the rim and almost forgot to pull up in time because I was so caught off guard that my quarry was right in front of me!
Here's another img with the coordinates:
Oh and 2b is still 27MM or so away.
Good find, Cmdr! I am onsite (but logged off) now. So will pop up into low orbit to locate and enjoy that site. Thanks for sharing!
Started streaming the approach again, if you're interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmcZks7zqu0
Let's see if I can figure this ....
Ticked to 29.7Mm at 01:56:46
Ticked to 20.9Mm at 22:13:37
That's 8.8Mm in 73,011 seconds or 20.2808 hours
That's 0.4339072Mm/hr, average over ~20 hrs
That's a little faster than my 36 hours average of 0.423599Mm/Hr from last time, but it hasn't been a full orbit yet.
Update: 20.8Mm at 22:34:11, 8.9Mm in 74,245 seconds or 20.6236 hours
Which is 0.4315442Mm/hr, it's slowing down at this point.
Ticked to 29.7Mm at 01:56:46
Ticked to 20.9Mm at 22:13:37
That's 8.8Mm in 73,011 seconds or 20.2808 hours
That's 0.4339072Mm/hr, average over ~20 hrs
That's a little faster than my 36 hours average of 0.423599Mm/Hr from last time, but it hasn't been a full orbit yet.
Update: 20.8Mm at 22:34:11, 8.9Mm in 74,245 seconds or 20.6236 hours
Which is 0.4315442Mm/hr, it's slowing down at this point.
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Yeah. It seems to be slowing down. Well, I'm breaking the live stream for today and will turn it on again about the same time for an hour.
It still looks like collision on Monday 22:30 IGT.
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