I have a sneaking suspicion that, not only will we receive the ‘big’ Q4 update. But in addition a sizeable DLC also !
Because +100 dev team.
Flimley
Should be before the end of this year:I agree that devs are working on DLC, but I doubt it will be released this year. More like next spring or summer.
premium content as part of their lifetime expansion pass before the end of 2018
I hope that is the case. I would have assumed that such sizeable DLC (aka Premium Content) would be promoted during Gamescom, along with more 3.3 specifics, but tbf that assumption is based on FDev's prior marketing strategy for Elite's major updates (which may have changed).I have a sneaking suspicion that, not only will we receive the ‘big’ Q4 update. But in addition a sizeable DLC also !
Because +100 dev team.
Flimley
Not convinced. Most people want their changes, not just more changes.
Should be before the end of this year:
Not convinced. Most people want their changes, not just more changes.
And you should look at books on productivity in s/w teams - Mythical Man Month by Fred Brooks is a classic. Costs of communication follow a power law, so adding more people doesn't necessarily increase output.
I am not convinced either way on that one, overall it does not matter when it happens in essence providing it is delivered in a reasonable state of quality. I can understand the impatience of some but personally I would rather a release be delayed than a release be of shoddy quality. Too many AAA developers do the latter.I think what Zac meant is that we will get some small taster of premium new content, but not much else.
But it is as good speculation as yours. Fact FD hasn't removed that comment from Zac - they have done that in the past - indicates that *something* is coming this year. I just doubt it is anything big.
Yep, same here: Quality > Punctuality.I am not convinced either way on that one, overall it does not matter when it happens in essence providing it is delivered in a reasonable state of quality. I can understand the impatience of some but personally I would rather a release be delayed than a release be of shoddy quality. Too many AAA developers do the latter.
I believe that FD's focus and strategy regarding Elite changed when the Horizon didn't meet their expectations in terms of sales.
The only problem is we were not told what the strategy was (and still is). What to expect, when and with what effort...
I agree with your assessment of FDev's strategy change, it's the most sensible explanation given what has transpired. Regarding Horizons' 2.x development itself, I would add this speculation:I believe that FD's focus and strategy regarding Elite changed when the Horizon didn't meet their expectations in terms of sales. What they did at that point was to DOWNSIZE the team/effort and push the 2.x content with less manpower effort but on a longer timeline to compensate. Probably even drop some features or QoL additions in the process. And divert efforts to PC, JW, the PS4 release, etc.
This is the only reasonable explanation regarding what we got versus our expectations (the realist ones, not the fantasist ones).
In the beginning, FD needed to push the game for sale with limited resources and without knowing (besides the KS success) how well it will sell. That's why they planned a staged release, in order to recover the costs of development ASAP. Based on the initial sales, they started working on Horizon, only to be somehow underwhelmed by its (not so warm) receiving. Do not forget also that they were split into PC, Mac, Xbox One and the projected PS4. It must have been some heavy meetings in the board room.
Remember "the season model is dead" sentence? That was the point that signaled the new strategy for ED. The only problem is we were not told what the strategy was (and still is). What to expect, when and with what effort...
This is it.
My theory? The Playstation 4 port was the major cause of the delays, first 2.2 (1 month), then 2.3 (4 months) and consequently 2.4 (6 months). Why I think this:
Now that the PS4 Elite release was successful, Beyond 3.0 fixed beige planets, Jurassic World Evo release was successful (PC/Xbox/PS4), and Elite's DirectX10 and OS X's OpenGL support are both killed with 3.3 in Q4, I think the cross-platform/API development issues are now behind them.
- Cobra was already ported to Xbox, which itself is practically a spec-locked Windows PC anyway.
- Elite Dangerous was FDev's first Playstation game.
- The PS4 uses a custom OS based on FreeBSD, radically different to Windows.
- The PS4 uses a custom graphics API named GNM/X, differing to DirectX11 on a similar scale to OpenGL 4.5 (while all three APIs have similar functionality, their implementations of features are different).
- With the PS4 port launching June 2017, it's likely that the bulk of its beta testing was done using the 2.2 branch of Elite, released Oct 2016.
- Following this train of thought, 2.2 was probably the first Elite version to be "Playstation compatible".
- Here's an interesting tidbit: 2.2 was the update that brought us the beige planets plague, which then took FDev sixteen months to fix (3.0).
- Note that during this time, FDev's Cobra team were working hard to keep Elite compatible with 4 graphics APIs: DirectX10 (PC), DirectX11 (PC/Xbox), OpenGL 4.2 (OS X), and GNM/X (PS4). That's a large range of supported features and implementations.
- Not only that, but the Cobra team (around 30 staff according to FDev's games' credits; see Shared Tech Group and Tools Development) were simultaneously tasked with creating devtools for Planet Coaster's game and content creation, thereby preventing the full-strength engine team from combating the unexpected PS4 port difficulties.
- FDev want to maintain platform parity wherever possible, and Sony's certification process won't allow a bug as prevalent as beige planets to be released on their console, so FDev made the hard business choice: make all platforms have beige planets, until they can fix them on PS4.
Here's hoping we receive the Exploration Focused Feedback, new roadmap for Premium Content and 2019's updates, and Soon™.
I am not explicitly against this BUT I do not believe it should be expected - the average person in the gaming community seems to be demonstrably incapable of reacting well to changes in plans... unless it is to their advantage.Open communication of what is happening, i.e. if planned timeframes change, are very welcome too.
Remember how during 2016 when people asked what are Horizons exclusive things when reading release changelogs?
FD did not decrease workload, they just made core gameplay improvements a much bigger focus. Also it is possible Horizons plan involved to dedicate another team at FD for it. When Horizons low sales came, that plan was scrapped.
Not convinced. Most people want their changes, not just more changes.
And you should look at books on productivity in s/w teams - Mythical Man Month by Fred Brooks is a classic. Costs of communication follow a power law, so adding more people doesn't necessarily increase output.
...
did I actually just read a post from you that DOES NOT proclaim "FDev are amazeballs, everything they do is amazing and you are all wrong" ?
...
By far the biggest reason why Star Citizen is taking so long is