Frontier's Annual Results have been published (June 2018 to May 2019), showing a record year and Elite passing 3 million basegame sales

So if the development took 50 years, there'd still be no way to decide whether it was slow or not? It's kind of sad to see the standard space software that must not be named excuse trotted out to defend Frontier's lack of progress on the updates they said themselves are coming.

Unless of course 2020 vision contains all that was trailed and more. Who knows, because Frontier refuse to let that information slip to their 'vibarant community'.
In any case, the expression "New Age" is strong of meaning.

This expression should not be used lightly.
 
I find the term "New Age" to be rather unfortunate. With all the connotations it has these days, I I consider it Sew Age with defective spelling.
 
Serious question: Why does FDev need to entice existing players to return or keep playing?
I can only just speak for myself but not much. Having a break right now but will go back again after a break regardless. There is lots of things I want if I am to fall in love again tho (funnily enough not necessarily big ticket features like legs or atmospherics for me, they are cool and all but there are loads of little things which would also do it for me)
 
Yep, and Elite Dangerous itself launched on 16th Dec 2014. Neither the basegame nor Horizons 2.0 launched during the week before FDev's Xmas/NewYear break - they launched a week earlier than that, leaving time for post-launch hotfixes.
This is one of those wonderful moments where a statement is open to interpretation -

“...FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break...”

Horizons 2.0 released 15 Dec, so the week before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes false.
Horizons 2.0 didn’t launch during the week, before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes true.

I think you’ve managed a Schrödinger’s Statement :)
 
This is one of those wonderful moments where a statement is open to interpretation -

“...FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break...”

Horizons 2.0 released 15 Dec, so the week before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes false.
Horizons 2.0 didn’t launch during the week, before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes true.

I think you’ve managed a Schrödinger’s Statement :)
Huh?

My two comments were clear:
It won't have arrived before the end of 2016, because Winter begins Dec 21st (a Wednesday in 2016), and FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break (hotfixes they will though).
Neither the basegame nor Horizons 2.0 launched during the week before FDev's Xmas/NewYear break - they launched a week earlier than that, leaving time for post-launch hotfixes.
I haven't made a Schrödinger’s Statement; you changed what I said, altering the wording and punctuation to force different meanings.
 
...I haven't made a Schrödinger’s Statement; you changed what I said, altering the wording and punctuation to force different meanings.
I attempted to simulate how intonation could alter the meaning of the statement by using punctuation and rearrangement. I stand by my post, I can read your sentence both ways. I wasn’t trying to have a dig or anything.

FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break.
FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break.

Is that a better way of showing what I was thinking?

I just thought it was one of those odd quirks of language that crops up now and again.
 
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Serious question: Why does FDev need to entice existing players to return or keep playing?
ARX and "New Era" of course.
From the commentary I've seen across Reddit, Youtube, Twitch, Twitter and Facebook, former CMDRs are very interested in returning to the game for: earnable cosmetics (ARX), Personal Fleet Carriers, and/or New Era (based on the leaks/rumours).
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
It's called acknowledging reality. It's appropriate to point out, in a thread concerning the company's financial position, that the share price has crashed a bit.
I like how you acknowledge reality. Please care to acknowledge and explain your interpretation of the other 25-30 drops noted in the last year or so, one by one if possible. You can thank me later for not charting the last 5 years ;)

 
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I like how you acknowledge reality. Please care to acknowledge and explain your interpretation of the other 25-30 drops noted in the last year or so, one by one if possible. You can thank me later for not charting the last 5 years.

Hahaha! That drop does look a bit unimportant when looking at the bigger chart picture :D

The chart shows a considerable increase since the low in August - and more-so from the very-low in January - to now in September. Can a financial analyst expert-type-person please explain and acknowledge if that is a good or bad thing? TIA
 
I like how you acknowledge reality. Please care to acknowledge and explain your interpretation of the other 25-30 drops noted in the last year or so, one by one if possible. You can thank me later for not charting the last 5 years ;)

Do you seriously wish for me to explain every short term price fluctuation? You've entirely misunderstood what I was talking about. I wasn't referring to the moments of short term vol. But...seeing as you're asking I'll explain some of the concerns I'd have about investing in FDev:

Current EV/EBITDA ratio is over 14. Generally, under 10 is regarded as healthy. Over 14 implies forecast earnings are very low in relation to share price.

Forecast earnings yield around 4.5%. By and large, you would regard under 6/7% to indicate a share to be overpriced for the earnings expected.

Return in invested capital is sitting near 1.08%. As a rough guide, 'quality' companies (ref terminology used in equity investing) have ROIC over 2%. Under 2% means they are eroding value.

There is a mix of the stock still being expensive combined with a low quality tilt. That would worry me as an investor. That's before considering that they still seem incapable of paying a dividend for a reason I'm unfamiliar with.

None of this means the share price is guaranteed to drop. A stock can be rancid and still experience a price increase if the market is up. There is systematic exposure as well idiosyncratic value. As I mentioned, FDev shares have historically been high beta (systematic exposure) with respective industry so when the industry goes up you expect FDev to go up more (and vice versa). That ignores the idiosyncratic element that causes further deviations.

I've not done any in depth analysis on frontier developments. I was simply pointing out that regardless of positive historic earnings growth, there are causes for tempering one's relentless optimism. Make your own mind up of course. I'm not an IFA so my opinions aren't advice. Those would simply reflect my concerns were I invested or considering investing in the company.

Or you could look at a chart with one day volatility and assume that's what I was referring to.
 
Or you could look at a chart with one day volatility and assume that's what I was referring to.
Tbf, it is what you were referring to:
Share price is down 8% on forecast reduced revenues. Just FYI.
Or were you referring to the forecast that FY2020 will have lower revenues than FY2019? Because that forecast was made by Liberum 6 months ago. Are traders often half-a-year behind on their info?
 
Tbf, it is what you were referring to:

Or were you referring to the forecast that FY2020 will have lower revenues than FY2019? Because that forecast was made by Liberum 6 months ago.
My word. Why did I bother providing that explanation? Ok so I just offered metrics indicating there are low earnings (relative to share price) projected. I don't even know if the bit of the chart circled has anything to do with the financial results. I'd have to look at the period of draw-down that was a direct result. It may have even been a more granular time-period than in that chart. The point - and why that move differs from regular daily volatility - is that drop occured BECAUSE of financial results and forecasts released by FDev. That's a more fundamental change than regular price fluctuations that can occur as a result of anything from - trading volume spikes, price retracements, broader market movements, clearing party spread tightening etc.
 
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