Frontier's Annual Results have been published (June 2018 to May 2019), showing a record year and Elite passing 3 million basegame sales

Arioch

Arioch
StuartGT said:
Yep, and Elite Dangerous itself launched on 16th Dec 2014. Neither the basegame nor Horizons 2.0 launched during the week before FDev's Xmas/NewYear break - they launched a week earlier than that, leaving time for post-launch hotfixes.
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This is one of those wonderful moments where a statement is open to interpretation -

“...FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break...”

Horizons 2.0 released 15 Dec, so the week before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes false.
Horizons 2.0 didn’t launch during the week, before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes true.

I think you’ve managed a Schrödinger’s Statement :)
 

StuartGT

StuartGT
Arioch said:
This is one of those wonderful moments where a statement is open to interpretation -

“...FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break...”

Horizons 2.0 released 15 Dec, so the week before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes false.
Horizons 2.0 didn’t launch during the week, before FDev went on holiday. Statement becomes true.

I think you’ve managed a Schrödinger’s Statement :)
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Huh?

My two comments were clear:
StuartGT said:
It won't have arrived before the end of 2016, because Winter begins Dec 21st (a Wednesday in 2016), and FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break (hotfixes they will though).
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StuartGT said:
Neither the basegame nor Horizons 2.0 launched during the week before FDev's Xmas/NewYear break - they launched a week earlier than that, leaving time for post-launch hotfixes.
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I haven't made a Schrödinger’s Statement; you changed what I said, altering the wording and punctuation to force different meanings.
 

Arioch

Arioch
StuartGT said:
...I haven't made a Schrödinger’s Statement; you changed what I said, altering the wording and punctuation to force different meanings.
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I attempted to simulate how intonation could alter the meaning of the statement by using punctuation and rearrangement. I stand by my post, I can read your sentence both ways. I wasn’t trying to have a dig or anything.

FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break.
FDev won't launch a major update during the week before the Xmas/NewYear break.

Is that a better way of showing what I was thinking?

I just thought it was one of those odd quirks of language that crops up now and again.
 
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StuartGT

StuartGT
Riverside said:
Serious question: Why does FDev need to entice existing players to return or keep playing?
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Patrick_68000 said:
ARX and "New Era" of course.
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From the commentary I've seen across Reddit, Youtube, Twitch, Twitter and Facebook, former CMDRs are very interested in returning to the game for: earnable cosmetics (ARX), Personal Fleet Carriers, and/or New Era (based on the leaks/rumours).
 

Viajero

Volunteer Moderator
Viajero
Rambojambo said:
It's called acknowledging reality. It's appropriate to point out, in a thread concerning the company's financial position, that the share price has crashed a bit.
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I like how you acknowledge reality. Please care to acknowledge and explain your interpretation of the other 25-30 drops noted in the last year or so, one by one if possible. You can thank me later for not charting the last 5 years ;)

FLUWddc.png
 
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StuartGT

StuartGT
Viajero said:
I like how you acknowledge reality. Please care to acknowledge and explain your interpretation of the other 25-30 drops noted in the last year or so, one by one if possible. You can thank me later for not charting the last 5 years.

FLUWddc.png
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Hahaha! That drop does look a bit unimportant when looking at the bigger chart picture :D

The chart shows a considerable increase since the low in August - and more-so from the very-low in January - to now in September. Can a financial analyst expert-type-person please explain and acknowledge if that is a good or bad thing? TIA
 

DeletedUser191218

D
Viajero said:
I like how you acknowledge reality. Please care to acknowledge and explain your interpretation of the other 25-30 drops noted in the last year or so, one by one if possible. You can thank me later for not charting the last 5 years ;)

FLUWddc.png
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Do you seriously wish for me to explain every short term price fluctuation? You've entirely misunderstood what I was talking about. I wasn't referring to the moments of short term vol. But...seeing as you're asking I'll explain some of the concerns I'd have about investing in FDev:

Current EV/EBITDA ratio is over 14. Generally, under 10 is regarded as healthy. Over 14 implies forecast earnings are very low in relation to share price.

Forecast earnings yield around 4.5%. By and large, you would regard under 6/7% to indicate a share to be overpriced for the earnings expected.

Return in invested capital is sitting near 1.08%. As a rough guide, 'quality' companies (ref terminology used in equity investing) have ROIC over 2%. Under 2% means they are eroding value.

There is a mix of the stock still being expensive combined with a low quality tilt. That would worry me as an investor. That's before considering that they still seem incapable of paying a dividend for a reason I'm unfamiliar with.

None of this means the share price is guaranteed to drop. A stock can be rancid and still experience a price increase if the market is up. There is systematic exposure as well idiosyncratic value. As I mentioned, FDev shares have historically been high beta (systematic exposure) with respective industry so when the industry goes up you expect FDev to go up more (and vice versa). That ignores the idiosyncratic element that causes further deviations.

I've not done any in depth analysis on frontier developments. I was simply pointing out that regardless of positive historic earnings growth, there are causes for tempering one's relentless optimism. Make your own mind up of course. I'm not an IFA so my opinions aren't advice. Those would simply reflect my concerns were I invested or considering investing in the company.

Or you could look at a chart with one day volatility and assume that's what I was referring to.
 

StuartGT

StuartGT
Rambojambo said:
Or you could look at a chart with one day volatility and assume that's what I was referring to.
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Tbf, it is what you were referring to:
Rambojambo said:
Share price is down 8% on forecast reduced revenues. Just FYI.
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Or were you referring to the forecast that FY2020 will have lower revenues than FY2019? Because that forecast was made by Liberum 6 months ago. Are traders often half-a-year behind on their info?
 

DeletedUser191218

D
StuartGT said:
Tbf, it is what you were referring to:

Or were you referring to the forecast that FY2020 will have lower revenues than FY2019? Because that forecast was made by Liberum 6 months ago.
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My word. Why did I bother providing that explanation? Ok so I just offered metrics indicating there are low earnings (relative to share price) projected. I don't even know if the bit of the chart circled has anything to do with the financial results. I'd have to look at the period of draw-down that was a direct result. It may have even been a more granular time-period than in that chart. The point - and why that move differs from regular daily volatility - is that drop occured BECAUSE of financial results and forecasts released by FDev. That's a more fundamental change than regular price fluctuations that can occur as a result of anything from - trading volume spikes, price retracements, broader market movements, clearing party spread tightening etc.
 

StuartGT

StuartGT
StuartGT said:
Tbf, it is what you were referring to:

Or were you referring to the forecast that FY2020 will have lower revenues than FY2019? Because that forecast was made by Liberum 6 months ago. Are traders often half-a-year behind on their info?
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Rambojambo said:
My word. Why did I bother providing that explanation? Ok so I just offered metrics indicating there are low earnings (relative to share price) projected. I don't even know if the bit of the chart circled has anything to do with the financial results. I'd have to look at the period of draw-down that was a direct result. It may have even been a more granular time-period than in that chart. The point - and why that move differs from regular daily volatility - is that drop occured BECAUSE of financial results and forecasts released by FDev. That's a more fundamental change than regular price fluctuations that can occur as a result of anything from - trading volume spikes, price retracements, broader market movements, clearing party spread tightening etc.
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So you are saying that traders are often half-a-year behind on their info.

FDev's record revenues were higher than previously estimated, meanwhile the next few years' revenues were already forecasted 6 months ago, by FDev's official broker: Liberum.

I would assume that this is good information for said out-of-date traders?

Frontier Developments (LON:FDEV)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by research analysts at Shore Capital in a note issued to investors on Wednesday, ThisIsMoney.Co.Uk reports.​
​
FDEV has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Berenberg Bank restated a “buy” rating and set a GBX 1,350 ($17.64) target price on shares of Frontier Developments in a research note on Friday, August 23rd. Peel Hunt reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Monday. FinnCap reiterated a “corporate” rating on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Tuesday, June 18th. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a GBX 1,453 ($18.99) price target on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Tuesday, June 18th. Finally, Liberum Capital reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Tuesday, June 18th. Six investment analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, The company has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of GBX 1,457.17 ($19.04).​
 

DeletedUser191218

D
StuartGT said:
So you are saying that traders are often half-a-year behind on their info.

FDev's record revenues were higher than previously estimated, meanwhile the next few years' revenues were already forecasted 6 months ago, by FDev's official broker: Liberum.

I would assume that this is good information for said out-of-date traders?

Frontier Developments (LON:FDEV)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by research analysts at Shore Capital in a note issued to investors on Wednesday, ThisIsMoney.Co.Uk reports.​
​
FDEV has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Berenberg Bank restated a “buy” rating and set a GBX 1,350 ($17.64) target price on shares of Frontier Developments in a research note on Friday, August 23rd. Peel Hunt reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Monday. FinnCap reiterated a “corporate” rating on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Tuesday, June 18th. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a GBX 1,453 ($18.99) price target on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Tuesday, June 18th. Finally, Liberum Capital reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Frontier Developments in a report on Tuesday, June 18th. Six investment analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, The company has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of GBX 1,457.17 ($19.04).​
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This information has nothing to do with traders. I already explained market beta versus idiosyncratic performance that can mean the share price might still increase. With respect, this is my job mate. You demonstrably don't really get what I was saying. That's fine, it presumably isn't your vocation to understand it. But please can you defer to the fact that I do? This is like me taking my car into a garage and telling the mechanic that all the advisories he's given me on my car are wrong coz I've had a quick look and it seems fine to me.
 
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