Frontier's Annual Results have been published (June 2018 to May 2019), showing a record year and Elite passing 3 million basegame sales

[Viajero]

This information has nothing to do with traders.

It does 100%. On the other hand you somehow seem to think that traders act in the vacuum as if the recent news were, well, new and that somehow they had not already factored in the previous updates on record profit expectations for this FY issued many months ago. As a side note the update on the 4th is actually slightly better than original estimates.

If you really wanted to see the market and share price reaction to these recent “news” you would be much better off looking into the first notifications about it on expected record profits long ago (or the ones related to the announcement of JWE, announcement of its release date, its initial sales progress etc).

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

I refer the Right Honourable Gentleman to my previous answer:

If Mr B would like to interject at any time with his actual meaning for the phrase...I’m sure that’d clear things right up

The meaning of the phrase is pretty obvious. Someone asked when the thargoids were coming, the reply was "winter is coming". We then get the first thargoid encounters in the winter. Seems extremely straight forward to me.

There was no mention of 2.4 in the question or the reply. You can disagree all you want, but the sequence of events says you are wrong.

 

[Arioch]

The meaning of the phrase is pretty obvious. Someone asked when the thargoids were coming, the reply was "winter is coming". We then get the first thargoid encounters in the winter. Seems extremely straight forward to me.

There was no mention of 2.4 in the question or the reply. You can disagree all you want, but the sequence of events says you are wrong.

StuartGT cleared that one up for me, I shall refer you to post #414

(I originally came into this thread because 2 forumites were arguing Horizons was/wasn’t originally on a quarterly release schedule. They were both a little bit right, and a little bit wrong. When the schedule was first released, I wholeheartedly believe FDev intended to kick off 2.4 from Winter 2016 onwards. Otherwise, I’d have to assume they’d have to be knowingly misleading customers and I don’t hold such a low opinion of them)

 

[StuartGT]

This information has nothing to do with traders. I already explained market beta versus idiosyncratic performance that can mean the share price might still increase. With respect, this is my job mate. You demonstrably don't really get what I was saying. That's fine, it presumably isn't your vocation to understand it. But please can you defer to the fact that I do? This is like me taking my car into a garage and telling the mechanic that all the advisories he's given me on my car are wrong coz I've had a quick look and it seems fine to me.

Huh, why was the linked & quoted information from investment analysts not useful for traders?

You haven't mentioned "market beta" nor "idiosyncratic performance" previously in this thread, so no, you haven't explained them or helpfully compared them.

Indeed it is not my vocation, hence me already having deferred and asking questions on the topic (share price & trading) you brought into my thread (Elite's mentions in FDev's report). You being evasive and apparently unhelpful in your answers won't stop me from continuing to ask questions.

Personally, I always ask knowledgable friends and colleagues their advice on topics (e.g. car repair) prior to hiring outside work - I prefer not being scammed

 

[DeletedUser191218]

It does 100%. On the other hand you somehow seem to think that traders act in the vacuum as if the recent news were, well, new and that somehow they had not already factored in the previous updates on record profit expectations for this FY issued many months ago. As a side note the update on the 4th is actually slightly better than original estimates.

If you really wanted to see the market and share price reaction to these recent “news” you would be much better off looking into the first notifications about it on expected record profits long ago (or the ones related to the announcement of JWE, announcement of its release date, its initial sales progress etc).

Traders act on the behalf of investors. Their concern is execution of the trade. Unless you mean high-frequency traders, which is entirely different.

 

[DeletedUser191218]

Huh, why was the linked & quoted information from investment analysts not useful for traders?

You haven't mentioned "market beta" nor "idiosyncratic performance" previously in this thread, so no, you haven't explained them or helpfully compared them.

Indeed it is not my vocation, hence me already having deferred and asking questions on the topic (share price & trading) you brought into my thread (Elite's mentions in FDev's report). You being evasive and apparently unhelpful in your answers won't stop me from continuing to ask questions.

Personally, I always ask knowledgable friends and colleagues their advice on topics (e.g. car repair) prior to hiring outside work - I prefer not being scammed

I did mate. Read through the thread. I explained that a stock can still follow the market up despite the underlying company fundamentals not being as strong as alternatives.

I haven't been evasive. I've tried to explain as simply as I can.

Lastly, traders are responsible for executing trades. They generally aren't interested in company fundamentals. There are literally two traders sitting right behind me now. They have no interest in company earnings. Their job is to execute trades on the best terms available.

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

StuartGT cleared that one up for me, I shall refer you to post #414

(I originally came into this thread because 2 forumites were arguing Horizons was/wasn’t originally on a quarterly release schedule. They were both a little bit right, and a little bit wrong. When the schedule was first released, I wholeheartedly believe FDev intended to kick off 2.4 from Winter 2016 onwards. Otherwise, I’d have to assume they’d have to be knowingly misleading customers and I don’t hold such a low opinion of them)

Yeah, I think we most of us assumed it was going to be winter 2016/2017 and FDev probably thought the same too at the time. Since then though, they have been pretty good at keeping to their schedule.

 

[Viajero]

Traders act on the behalf of investors

With that I think you already answered your own strawman. Hopefully you can now actually get back on track and address the information availability and discount issue that has been pointed out to you several times already.

 

[StuartGT]

Six short videos of David Braben talking to Liberum about FDev's year and plans:

https://liberum.com/videos/frontierdev19/

 

[sollisb]

Six short videos of David Braben talking to Liberum about FDev's year and plans:

https://liberum.com/videos/frontierdev19/

My partner recently showed me a scheme she was about to get involved in, basically a pyramid selling scheme. She explained to me that her upline was earning a fortune and was recently given an award for being a million dollar earner. I laughed and sat her down beside and then went through the accounts of 5 of these 'million dollar' earners and showed her their company records, history and directorships etc. Not one of them had anything remotely close to 100,000k never mind 1 million. I explained how business works to her.

What has this got to do with the current topics? Well anyone can sit in a chair and sell a dream. David can say anything he likes, but the real crunch is what he actually delivers. I have no great interest in Frontier Accounts, because at the end of the day, me, nor you, nor anyone else can show where the money comes from. It could be from other titles, from investments, from any number of places. And none of that means Elite is doing great or indeed doing bad.

Elite reaching or passing 3 million box sales is in the overall scheme of things, nothing. Minecraft 30 million?

The point I'm trying to make is, none of us knows what is planned for ELite or what will be delivered. Sure there are snipptes and rumours, but we don;t really know until we see it. Which bring me back to an old business axiom.. Show me the money..

Another item worth noting is David telling us how great multiplay was going to be, and if we didn't use it they wouldn't develop it further. What they delivered was rubbish and they have done nothing with it since. So so, much for 'what David said'...

Bottom line here is ELite is what it is, and that is all it is.

 

[StuartGT]

Well anyone can sit in a chair and sell a dream. David can say anything he likes, but the real crunch is what he actually delivers. I have no great interest in Frontier Accounts, because at the end of the day, me, nor you, nor anyone else can show where the money comes from. It could be from other titles, from investments, from any number of places. And none of that means Elite is doing great or indeed doing bad.

Elite reaching or passing 3 million box sales is in the overall scheme of things, nothing. Minecraft 30 million?

The point I'm trying to make is, none of us knows what is planned for ELite or what will be delivered. Sure there are snipptes and rumours, but we don;t really know until we see it. Which bring me back to an old business axiom.. Show me the money..

Elite's sales revenue is known via filings, reports and videos. For example:

Meanwhile, as of May 2019 Minecraft had sold 176 million copies.

 

[sollisb]

Elite's sales revenue is known via filings, reports and videos. For example:

Meanwhile, as of May 2019 Minecraft had sold 176 million copies.

Oh Thanx !

Interesting... According to that; 825 sales = -17.5% growth, but 1180 sales is a +43% growth...

I'm dying to see that explained.. Do we have any accountants in the house?

And do unit sales include Horizons, and are they individual sales. ie; If I buy Elite then buy Horizons, is that 2 sales?

 

[babelfisch]

StuartGT cleared that one up for me, I shall refer you to post #414

(I originally came into this thread because 2 forumites were arguing Horizons was/wasn’t originally on a quarterly release schedule. They were both a little bit right, and a little bit wrong. When the schedule was first released, I wholeheartedly believe FDev intended to kick off 2.4 from Winter 2016 onwards. Otherwise, I’d have to assume they’d have to be knowingly misleading customers and I don’t hold such a low opinion of them)

Absolutely. The debate we had was if the winter is coming quote and the term Season has anything to do with a quarterly releases. It doesn't. That's why my answer was yes and no...

 

[Riverside]

Six short videos of David Braben talking to Liberum about FDev's year and plans:

https://liberum.com/videos/frontierdev19/

Thanks for sharing. Doesn't really say much (imo) but worth watching all the same

 

[NavyBee]

Interesting... According to that; 825 sales = -17.5% growth, but 1180 sales is a +43% growth...

I'm dying to see that explained.. Do we have any accountants in the house?

The growth rates are year-to-year, not total amounts.

 

[Vingtetun]

Oh Thanx !

Interesting... According to that; 825 sales = -17.5% growth, but 1180 sales is a +43% growth...

I'm dying to see that explained.. Do we have any accountants in the house?

And do unit sales include Horizons, and are they individual sales. ie; If I buy Elite then buy Horizons, is that 2 sales?

um - 825 being -17.5% means that the previous result (not shown) was down from 1000?
(1180/825)*100 = 143

 

[thistle]

It depends what the Unit Sales represents. It ranges in that image from 825,000 to 1,180,000 and hovers around the 1,000,000 level for the next few years. So it's presumably an estimate of current units, not refunded or inactive. What it is that causes a reduction I'm not sure - estimates of reductions and increases in active players perhaps.

The %growth is based on those unit numbers, hence the 43% increase from 825,000 to 1,180,000, and -19.5% reducing to 950,000.

 

[DeletedUser191218]

With that I think you already answered your own strawman. Hopefully you can now actually get back on track and address the information availability and discount issue that has been pointed out to you several times already.

I'm not sure an issue around information availability or discount issue (I presume the use of investment terminology is in error) has been pointed out to me. Care to explain?

I'm not sure this hostile and confrontational manner befits someone who is supposed to facilitate respectful discussion. You're supposed to moderate. Thus far your's has been the only unpleasant tone I've encountered in this thread.

 

[Viajero]

I'm not sure an issue around information availability or discount issue (I presume the use of investment terminology is in error) has been pointed out to me. Care to explain?

I was referring to discounting (as in taking account of) already known information in discussions about share price behaviour. A principle that someone in the trading business should be quite familiar with unless that someone willfully decides to ignore it.

That principle, and how it would apply to your comments about the 4th September news discussion (given all pre-existing, quite accurate, FY2019 result estimates from months ago and from different sources, including FDEV itself), has already been pointed out to you several times, not just by me, in previous posts.

 

[DeletedUser191218]

I was referring to discounting (as in taking account of) already known information in discussions about share price behaviour. A principle that someone in the trading business should be quite familiar with unless that someone willfully decides to ignore it.

That principle, and how it would apply to your comments about the 4th September news discussion (given all pre-existing, quite accurate, FY2019 result estimates from months ago and from different sources, including FDEV itself), has already been pointed out to you several times, not just by me, in previous posts.

You'll have to forgive me as I'm not following. What information was already known and why should we discount it from a discussion about share price behaviour? As far as I recall, I mentioned that despite the recent financial results, the share price fell. My view is that it fell due to forecasted earnings that are low relative to the share price (and provided some metrics). I'm not really sure what you're suggesting should be discounted.

Apologies if I'm being pedantic about use of 'trading'. I think of that as one part of the investment process. I realise people might be using that term instead of investing.

I think perhaps what you are misunderstanding is that regardless of historic earnings, investors care more about projected earnings. Incidentally, I have seen gripes on forums from (admittedly anonymous) shareholders regarding the fact despite reasonably strong earnings, there is no dividend being paid. I'm not really sure why they aren't distributing a dividend but it seems an odd decision.