While I'm sure this is nothing new to reveal since the full-time Elite Dangerous mastermind community solves every puzzle within 1 real day of its launch (except for Raxxla, and the only reason that is still out there is because Frontier has given LITERALLY NO CLUES regarding it), I still wanted to nudge this issue from a new-ish point of view. And specifically, what I've noticed by glancing through the in-game Powerplay board (yes, tangent, I REFUSE to use external third-party sources, as I find them less than 110% reliable, so I will strictly stick to OFFICIAL SOURCES ONLY) is that there is far greater focus on Fortifying than Undermining, across most if not all factions. With seemingly all factions across the board concentrating entirely on defense, any potential for significant offensive maneuvers is now impractical if not absurd, and current projections say it will never be doable (not without some deep retooling by the development team). What this results in is a much more static map that has little to no change at all from week to week, especially from a cursory or casual viewpoint. And I have come up with a few reasons to explain this phenomenon:
1) It's a matter of simple Mathematics. To fortify one star system, the points requirement is in the 4 digits, whereas to undermine one, it is in the 5 digits. On average, it takes 10 to 30 times the numbers of points to undermine a system as it would take to fortify an allied one. So yeah, if one player could choose to either undermine 1 or fortify 30, I think we know where the manpower "efficiency" is going to lean (this is also using veteran standards for frame-of-reference; novice, new, and casual pilots are going to find negligible results on an individual basis). And so long as an offensive push is mathematically uphill, never expect any substantial offensive attempts. Even if hypothetically one system were undermined successfully, without a fortification to negate it, the most that would happen is a dent into the faction's "CC" pool...which, assuming that's not enough to instill the state of Turmoil (it seldom to never IS), then nothing will have changed in the grand scheme of Powerplay, for all that hard work.
2) The process of undermining is much more random, inconsistent, and spotty. While I can only speak for the Alliance faction and my home-boy Mahon, there stands a fair reason to believe that the process is more universal: undermining requires combat against a specific type of Powerplay NPC ship. And, they will spawn sporadically, with numerous times that there wouldn't be any targets to even attempt to catch. That makes the process of undermining feel more like "fishing" than waging war (yes, I wish there was a way players can go into "active military service" in-game, rather than the mere bragging rights of the "Auxiliary Navy", but that is a whole other tangent beyond the scope of this hypothesis). Contrast this with the process of fortifying: you go to a station in a "control system", you load up a cargo hold with a specific arbitrary item found in the Contacts tab, and deliver it back to your Headquarters. The "fast-tracking" credit demand is intended to mitigate bulk fortifications in rapid succession, but this only prevents the aforementioned "novice, new, and casual players" from contributing. I appreciate (if not overtly enjoy) the implications that Elite Dangerous is NOT a "casual game", even if that means demanding a massive time-sink for anyone aspiring to deliver a greater-than-negligible contribution upon the galactic stage. Anyone who's played upwards of months of real-time (or hundreds of hours of in-game time) would have hundreds of millions of credits with nothing else to do but fast-track hundreds of tons of powerplay fortify resources. It's definitely not profitable to do this, given the "weekly powerplay salary" in contrast with the fast-track price of 10k per ton (so a fast-track of 20 units costs 200k credits). Though since I'm speaking as somebody who is never strictly "in it for the money", that means the monetary speed-bump hardly matters from my point of view. What this expenditure gets you is a far faster, streamlined, and most importantly, consistent way of earning Powerplay merits...and in bulk.
3) MOST (or SOME) factions simply are not very coordinated. I know that the most die-hard masters will congregate to these official forums, or potentially any fan-run Discord servers (which is why I came here early in my Elite career...specifically to "learn from the best"). But by and large, that's only a couple dozen out of the 5 digit player population; the rest of them most likely "just do their own thing". I've seen factions fortify a system up to 500% of the trigger requirement, and since you only need to hit 100%, that's a great deal of inefficiency (and the predatory advantages of such inefficiency are still well offset by the mathematical hurdle outlined in Reason #1 above). Given Reason #1 listed above, combine such Mathematics with this lack of coordinated efficiency, and there will never be any major undermining because of how much organization it would require to pull off to any noticeable degree.
4) Star systems no longer give any "Command Currency" (CC) Profitability. Now I did say I'm not "in it for the money", but I am aware other players feel there is no practical or tangible benefit to the Powerplay faction AS A WHOLE with any potential star systems we are able to expand into (even if we could hypothetically take over enemy star systems), so for no apparent reward of claiming new star systems, combined with the greater amount of space needed to defend and fortify (as in, being averse to the classic "spreading too thin" problem), the current state of the galaxy has every incentive to double-down on locking in what factions already have, instead of grabbing new and fresh resources on the fringes of human-inhabited territories. When I say "profitability", I don't just mean credit payouts for individual pilots; I mean specifically logistical benefits to the Powerplay faction up to and including a sense of power-projection. On a final trivial detail, I am not 110% certain what "CC" stands for, other than it is the main Powerplay resource on the faction scale, so forgive me if I've made any initial error. All I know is, its appropriate shorthand is "CC".
In conclusion, with any hypothetical future updates that Frontier may have in store, if they wish to retool Powerplay to make it more engaging, dynamic, and impactful (all of which I feel will make for a richer experience), I suggest taking this feedback into account. There is too great of an obstacle to overcome whenever a single player starts feeling ambitious, and the community has recognized this by going fortifying across the board. Repainting the map would take a lot of work for seemingly nothing in return, especially since falling short will translate to wasted effort in mass quantities. Unless the design was specifically intended to reenact the stalemate conditions on par with trench warfare seen in WWI, I fail to understand why someone would want something so uneventful to remain the norm. Such emphasis on nonstop defense and "consolidation" means we seldom or never see any changes onto the political map, and all this put together is why there is "The Powerplay Stalemate".
1) It's a matter of simple Mathematics. To fortify one star system, the points requirement is in the 4 digits, whereas to undermine one, it is in the 5 digits. On average, it takes 10 to 30 times the numbers of points to undermine a system as it would take to fortify an allied one. So yeah, if one player could choose to either undermine 1 or fortify 30, I think we know where the manpower "efficiency" is going to lean (this is also using veteran standards for frame-of-reference; novice, new, and casual pilots are going to find negligible results on an individual basis). And so long as an offensive push is mathematically uphill, never expect any substantial offensive attempts. Even if hypothetically one system were undermined successfully, without a fortification to negate it, the most that would happen is a dent into the faction's "CC" pool...which, assuming that's not enough to instill the state of Turmoil (it seldom to never IS), then nothing will have changed in the grand scheme of Powerplay, for all that hard work.
2) The process of undermining is much more random, inconsistent, and spotty. While I can only speak for the Alliance faction and my home-boy Mahon, there stands a fair reason to believe that the process is more universal: undermining requires combat against a specific type of Powerplay NPC ship. And, they will spawn sporadically, with numerous times that there wouldn't be any targets to even attempt to catch. That makes the process of undermining feel more like "fishing" than waging war (yes, I wish there was a way players can go into "active military service" in-game, rather than the mere bragging rights of the "Auxiliary Navy", but that is a whole other tangent beyond the scope of this hypothesis). Contrast this with the process of fortifying: you go to a station in a "control system", you load up a cargo hold with a specific arbitrary item found in the Contacts tab, and deliver it back to your Headquarters. The "fast-tracking" credit demand is intended to mitigate bulk fortifications in rapid succession, but this only prevents the aforementioned "novice, new, and casual players" from contributing. I appreciate (if not overtly enjoy) the implications that Elite Dangerous is NOT a "casual game", even if that means demanding a massive time-sink for anyone aspiring to deliver a greater-than-negligible contribution upon the galactic stage. Anyone who's played upwards of months of real-time (or hundreds of hours of in-game time) would have hundreds of millions of credits with nothing else to do but fast-track hundreds of tons of powerplay fortify resources. It's definitely not profitable to do this, given the "weekly powerplay salary" in contrast with the fast-track price of 10k per ton (so a fast-track of 20 units costs 200k credits). Though since I'm speaking as somebody who is never strictly "in it for the money", that means the monetary speed-bump hardly matters from my point of view. What this expenditure gets you is a far faster, streamlined, and most importantly, consistent way of earning Powerplay merits...and in bulk.
3) MOST (or SOME) factions simply are not very coordinated. I know that the most die-hard masters will congregate to these official forums, or potentially any fan-run Discord servers (which is why I came here early in my Elite career...specifically to "learn from the best"). But by and large, that's only a couple dozen out of the 5 digit player population; the rest of them most likely "just do their own thing". I've seen factions fortify a system up to 500% of the trigger requirement, and since you only need to hit 100%, that's a great deal of inefficiency (and the predatory advantages of such inefficiency are still well offset by the mathematical hurdle outlined in Reason #1 above). Given Reason #1 listed above, combine such Mathematics with this lack of coordinated efficiency, and there will never be any major undermining because of how much organization it would require to pull off to any noticeable degree.
4) Star systems no longer give any "Command Currency" (CC) Profitability. Now I did say I'm not "in it for the money", but I am aware other players feel there is no practical or tangible benefit to the Powerplay faction AS A WHOLE with any potential star systems we are able to expand into (even if we could hypothetically take over enemy star systems), so for no apparent reward of claiming new star systems, combined with the greater amount of space needed to defend and fortify (as in, being averse to the classic "spreading too thin" problem), the current state of the galaxy has every incentive to double-down on locking in what factions already have, instead of grabbing new and fresh resources on the fringes of human-inhabited territories. When I say "profitability", I don't just mean credit payouts for individual pilots; I mean specifically logistical benefits to the Powerplay faction up to and including a sense of power-projection. On a final trivial detail, I am not 110% certain what "CC" stands for, other than it is the main Powerplay resource on the faction scale, so forgive me if I've made any initial error. All I know is, its appropriate shorthand is "CC".
In conclusion, with any hypothetical future updates that Frontier may have in store, if they wish to retool Powerplay to make it more engaging, dynamic, and impactful (all of which I feel will make for a richer experience), I suggest taking this feedback into account. There is too great of an obstacle to overcome whenever a single player starts feeling ambitious, and the community has recognized this by going fortifying across the board. Repainting the map would take a lot of work for seemingly nothing in return, especially since falling short will translate to wasted effort in mass quantities. Unless the design was specifically intended to reenact the stalemate conditions on par with trench warfare seen in WWI, I fail to understand why someone would want something so uneventful to remain the norm. Such emphasis on nonstop defense and "consolidation" means we seldom or never see any changes onto the political map, and all this put together is why there is "The Powerplay Stalemate".