Influence caps/gains and the wine analogy

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Jane Turner
This was written in 3.2 - the basic principles seem to be consistent in 3.3, but there are differences, notably in the amount of work required to hit the caps

NOTE - the Carriers update has changed the way influence is redistributed. It is no longer pro-rata to starting influence but appears to be uniformly taken from factions regardless of their starting influence. If this update becomes permanent new tables and graphs will be produced. And it appears to have reverted.

I just found myself explaining how influence gains are calculated in Elite to someone else, who was having trouble with the maths, using a wine-based analogy. It breaks down in a couple of places but it sort of works.
  • In each tick the factions present "compete" over a bottle of wine. That bottle of wine is formed by taking a fraction of a bottle of wine proportional to the percentage of system's wine that they own... so a faction with 75% influence provides 75% of the bottle.
  • If there is no activity in the system, then the wine is returned and nothing happens.
  • If one faction records 10** or more net BGS "points" (ie the difference between +ve and -ve activities) and no one else does anything, they get the bottle of wine added to their cellar.
  • If that faction does fewer than 10 BGS"points" and no one else does anything, then they get x/10 of the bottle of wine, and the rest is returned pro-rata to how it was initially staked.
  • It doesn't matter how many commanders contribute or the types of activity they do (so long as the activity type contributes in the state the faction is in).
  • The bottle that is played for is the same size regardless of the total wine production of the system, consequently the % gain is smaller in large population system. This is both how caps arise and why they are related to 1/log population
  • If more than one faction has net positive BGS points, then their % of the total points determines how much of the bottle of wine returns to them. This is why there is a diminishing returns effect, getting closer to, but never quite as much as the unopposed gain, even with very high BGS transaction counts
  • Since the end result is expressed as a % change, this explains why the amount gained decreases as the starting influence increases. It also explains why it takes fewer BGS points to raise a low starting influence faction when more than one faction has positive points.
Table Showing Influence Possible Through Positive Action Depending on System Population and Starting Influence
iL1PwgF.png




Notes
  • This is the maximum achievable by completing positive actions for one faction.
  • If there is any positive activity for any other faction in the system it will not be possible to reach this the quoted value, though with very high levels of positive transactions it is possible to get close. The relative starting influence of the factions with positive transactions affects the number of transactions needed, with much higher numbers needed if the faction you are supporting has much higher starting influence (think of it a being like a lever)
  • If a different faction loses influence through net negative transactions (Black market, murder etc), it is possible to exceed the quoted value by a considerable margin. The amount will depend on the level of negative activity and the starting influence of the affected faction. The lost influence is redistributed pro-rata to starting influences of the other factions.
  • In 3.3 the effort to achieve a full swing is increased and it is no longer possible to reach without using multiple BGS "levers". All activities have stongly diminishing returns.
These graphs are from a slightly different model, but the big picture is still the same

wlUS8Tp.png


https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/215554088820015104/440537340998582274/unknown.png


Transactions v gains in a Large population system. Unopposed, with 10 transactions to 1 low influence faction, 2 with 10 points to all other factions
GuX4qZw.png




Effort Required to Break Even v 10++ activty into a rival faction v the Influence of that faction in a two faction system
apQJFX9.png
 
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Deareim

Deareim
It is not the first time i see +ve _ve. What does it mean please ? And why fewer than 10 and not 15 or 5?

Thanks for the analogy.
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Jane Turner
+ve is positive -ve is negative. The cap is reached at 10 transactions unless there is other activity - anything more than that is wasted effort.

(in our model - which gives very close correlations to what we see in game.)
 
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Deareim

Deareim
Jane Turner said:
+ve is positive -ve is negative. The cap is reached at 10 transactions unless there is other activity - anything more than that is wasted effort.

(in our model - which gives very close correlations to what we see in game.)
Click to expand...

Thanks!
And is it valid for all type of wine ? or only one specific (these 10 transactions) ?
 
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Deareim

Deareim
Jane Turner said:
All transactions count together as far as we can tell
Click to expand...

1 CB redeemed = 1 transaction
1 BH redeemed = 1 transaction
1 trade = 1 transaction
and so on....

If it is that,indeed I have lost A LOT of time until now....so THANK YOU !!

EDIT : how does it work transaction for carto then ? Especially when you do system by system, it is more than 10....
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Jane Turner
BH is 2 and 4 in Civil Unrest, Trade is 2 in Boom, data is 1, missions are what they say on the tin. Remember if there is any other activity there is a heap of benefit in going past 10.

The value of a transaction was posted by Frontier in Jan 2016 - (linked above in sticky) there have been some changes - notable Murder, fines and explo data nerfed (as far as we can tell proviso)
 
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Deareim

Deareim
Jane Turner said:
BH is 2 and 4 in Civil Unrest, Trade is 2 in Boom, data is 1, missions are what they say on the tin. Remember if there is any other activity there is a heap of benefit in going past 10.

The value of a transaction was posted by Frontier in Jan 2016 - (linked above in sticky) there have been some changes - notable Murder, fines and explo data nerfed (as far as we can tell proviso)
Click to expand...

Thanks. Now everything is adding up in my head.
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Jane Turner
Limoncello Lizard said:
So what is the point of doing Inf+++++ missions, especially at the pay cut they have?
Click to expand...

Very little point in doing more than 2 if there is no one else active in the system, but even a little bit of background traffic makes it worthwhile - hang on I will graph it. Will take a few minutes

There:

Large population system, faction under examination starts at 60%. Scenario 1 is 10 transactions for a low influence faction, scenario 2 is 10 points fo all other factions.
unknown.png



https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/215554088820015104/438218998669377546/unknown.png
 
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Deareim

Deareim
Jane Turner said:
Very little point in doing more than 2 if there is no one else active in the system, but even a little bit of background traffic makes it worthwhile - hang on I will graph it. Will take a few minutes

There:

Large population system, faction under examination starts at 60%. Scenario 1 is 10 transactions for a low influence faction, scenario 2 is 10 points fo all other factions.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/215554088820015104/438218998669377546/unknown.png
Click to expand...

Very useful information ! But question about traffic : you can have people jumping in the system just for going to another one and it counts as traffic isn't it ? It doesn't mean something has been done.
Or you assume that more traffic in the system, higher the probability is that someone has done something in system. And even if, you need to correlate with the population size no ? Traffic of 2 in pop of 100 is more important than in a system of 5 billion.
Does the traffic report refresh every hour such as top 5 bounties ?
 
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Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Jane Turner
Traffic that interacts with the BGS by doing something in the system - in scenario 2 with all factions and in scenario 1 with just one faction - say a commander spotting an outbreak and completing a few missions
 
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