General / Off-Topic Is a global recession on the way?

I live in the Thames Valley, the water is operated by Thames Water (imaginative), they posted a leaflet through the door (or it was an email, cant remember) telling me about putting bricks in the cistern and other water saving ideas. Their pipe in our road was leaking for 2 months. Jokers.
 
If you do find yourself in exotic places where civilisation barely exists avoid eating 'long pig'

As long as you stay away from brain/nerve matter (those prion diseases are scary) and make sure it's cooked well, you'll probably be fine.

Public services are the cement of a civilized society.

Ultra-liberalism and the law of the jungle have no future.

Unfortunately, most governments aren't any better at providing public services than ultra-liberal capitalism or the 'law of the jungle'.

One issue with my part of the world. I have to declare that I have a rain barrel and it is against the local law, to sink a well or take ground water, in any way. I don't just require permission and then a licence: I have to record my usage and pay accordingly. Just one, of the wonderful things about the U.K. water, being in private hands.

Regulations against drawing ground water in densely populated areas make sense and people should be careful about taking too much or contaminating such sources, but many of these laws are absurd. 'Prior appropriation' doctrine in particular is widely abused.

However, it's always good to be aware of applicable laws, if only so that one knows what needs to be done to get away with ignoring the unjust ones.
 
It depends on the country.

Look at the Nordic countries very social.

France is not bad too.

Nordic model economics are an exception. Might work in some other places...Soviet Union probably would have adopted it if 60+ years of mismanagement hadn't lead to it's collapse first...but it's not likely to be applicable everywhere, and the overwhelming majority of the world has never even tried anything similar.
 
Nordic model economics are an exception. Might work in some other places...Soviet Union probably would have adopted it if 60+ years of mismanagement hadn't lead to it's collapse first...but it's not likely to be applicable everywhere, and the overwhelming majority of the world has never even tried anything similar.
In any case the ultra liberal capitalist system and the law of the jungle is not a model to adopt and anyway it is condemned.

No credible future for this system
 
In any case the ultra liberal capitalist system and the law of the jungle is not a model to adopt and anyway it is condemned.

No credible future for this system

That's as subjective and uncertain as anything.

Most of the problems people try to pin on liberal economics are actually examples of command economics/centralism, not functioning free-markets.

Take Koch Industries, for example. Despite the Koch brother's claims to free-market ideals, the main reason they have been able to be so successful is that they have a virtual monopolies in many ares of their business...monopolies enabled and enforced by regulation. For decades they have one of the most profitable and most polluting petroleum refinery businesses around and, ironically enough, EPA regulations they helped get passed are responsible. Virtually no new refineries had been built in the US for decades because they couldn't be profitable. They couldn't be profitable to build because environmental regulations (which are rational and necessary) aren't applied fairly. Old refineries were grandfathered in and didn't need to meet modern standards. Loopholes allowed these old refineries to be dramatically expanded, while still not being required to meet modern standards. Thus, owners of these grandfather refineries can refine more oil for less, and have an nearly unassailable advantage over anyone that would try to compete in this area.

Find an example of the evils of free-markets and nine times in ten you'll be able to find some corrupt regulation that gave someone an unfair advantage over potential competition...the exact opposite of what's supposed to happen in a liberal economy.
 
That's as subjective and uncertain as anything.

Most of the problems people try to pin on liberal economics are actually examples of command economics/centralism, not functioning free-markets.

Take Koch Industries, for example. Despite the Koch brother's claims to free-market ideals, the main reason they have been able to be so successful is that they have a virtual monopolies in many ares of their business...monopolies enabled and enforced by regulation. For decades they have one of the most profitable and most polluting petroleum refinery businesses around and, ironically enough, EPA regulations they helped get passed are responsible. Virtually no new refineries had been built in the US for decades because they couldn't be profitable. They couldn't be profitable to build because environmental regulations (which are rational and necessary) aren't applied fairly. Old refineries were grandfathered in and didn't need to meet modern standards. Loopholes allowed these old refineries to be dramatically expanded, while still not being required to meet modern standards. Thus, owners of these grandfather refineries can refine more oil for less, and have an nearly unassailable advantage over anyone that would try to compete in this area.

Find an example of the evils of free-markets and nine times in ten you'll be able to find some corrupt regulation that gave someone an unfair advantage over potential competition...the exact opposite of what's supposed to happen in a liberal economy.
This story of the Koch brothers is specific to the United States, I suppose.

In other countries the monopolies are fought by mandatory calls for tenders for the public contracts.
 
This story of the Koch brothers is specific to the United States, I suppose.

There is corruption anywhere there is power. Some places have more, some have less, but degree of it is a far better indicator of economic equality and mobility than how liberal the economy is or is not supposed to be.

In other countries the monopolies are fought by mandatory calls for tenders for the public contracts.

The United States has as much public procurement regulation intended to prevent corruption as almost anywhere.

However, it matters little if the rules regarding public tenders are followed if the company with the lowest bid and greatest ability to fulfill that contract got that way by using unrelated legislation to outcompete others in the first place.

Additionally, public expenditure as portion of GDP, is fairly low by Western standards. Even a public procurement system that excluded monopolies couldn't deter monopolies from forming because most business wouldn't come from the government.
 
This story of the Koch brothers is specific to the United States, I suppose.

In other countries the monopolies are fought by mandatory calls for tenders for the public contracts.
Tenders for public contracts, are corrupted each and every day. Between, using insider information, back handers and corrupt officials that are dealing with the tenders. The legitimate, honest businesses, don't stand a chance.

Examples from the U.K.: G4S. Carillion. The U.S. Boeing. Both are examples, of having the government, in their pockets.
 
Nordic model economics are an exception. Might work in some other places...Soviet Union probably would have adopted it if 60+ years of mismanagement hadn't lead to it's collapse first...but it's not likely to be applicable everywhere, and the overwhelming majority of the world has never even tried anything similar.
The Nordic countries are homogenous, or was now its changing and so are the laws and regulations. I visited Scandinavia 20 years ago, and was there for a short visit 2 years ago and the difference is mind boggling. Maybe Iceland is still as it was but Sweden and Denmark is not how it was 20 years ago, didn’t go to Norway.
 
There is corruption anywhere there is power. Some places have more, some have less, but degree of it is a far better indicator of economic equality and mobility than how liberal the economy is or is not supposed to be.



The United States has as much public procurement regulation intended to prevent corruption as almost anywhere.

However, it matters little if the rules regarding public tenders are followed if the company with the lowest bid and greatest ability to fulfill that contract got that way by using unrelated legislation to outcompete others in the first place.

Additionally, public expenditure as portion of GDP, is fairly low by Western standards. Even a public procurement system that excluded monopolies couldn't deter monopolies from forming because most business wouldn't come from the government.


Tenders for public contracts, are corrupted each and every day. Between, using insider information, back handers and corrupt officials that are dealing with the tenders. The legitimate, honest businesses, don't stand a chance.

Examples from the U.K.: G4S. Carillion. The U.S. Boeing. Both are examples, of having the government, in their pockets.

Yes, I know that corruption is everywhere.

I would not want to see what happens in the CAC 40 companies in France.

:)
 
The Nordic countries are homogenous, or was now its changing and so are the laws and regulations. I visited Scandinavia 20 years ago, and was there for a short visit 2 years ago and the difference is mind boggling. Maybe Iceland is still as it was but Sweden and Denmark is not how it was 20 years ago, didn’t go to Norway.
Scandinavian's are dismantling their culture at an astonishing rate.
 

Multiple stock markets have fallen on jitteriness over bad economic data. The fall itself doesn't matter as much as the bad data.

It's looking gloomy overall, with no safe haven. Bonds are being artificially propped up by Central Banks buying debt, and Stocks are inflated by artificially depressed interest rates, Precious metals just went through a trading scandal, so that leaves us with, LOL, currencies. And there's a race to the bottom there.

On the concrete side, we have Real Estate(falling) and Commodities, which drop in value as demand declines.

Much of this is being worsened by trade war and Brexit, but the underlying weakness isn't "political", it is systemic. There are things going on that just have not been factored in: like the Chinese Health Crisis.

You must be now thinking "WHAT??" Because its not making the news yet. All the particulate smog in their cities coupled with the Tobacco Market shift of the last ten years is going to give them a gruesome harvest of cardiovascular and cancer deaths, which will heavily impact growth, and drive up health expenditure.The most productive city cohort in their 40s to 60s is going to get culled going forward, and it is already started, which is why China is scrambling to electrify all her vehicles.

It is as obvious and predictable as the 3000 surplus automobile deaths in the year following the 9/11 catastrophe. Masses of people drove instead of flying, increasing the risk of death, and finally killing as many of themselves as bin Ladin.

As their best die off, expect the predicted growth numbers to start falling short over there.
 
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