Actually they did think of that, that's one of the hypotesis made so far, dust ejected from the outer shells of the star was a most likely candidate. That, or an enormous "sunspot", probably no way to know with our current means.
Actually our "current means" can image the Betelgeuse's surface features just fine.
The problem with all the predictions and interpretations isn't that we don't know what it looks like or what's around it but rather that we lack any kind of reference for modelling.
It's not even remotely spherical, it doesn't have a stable photosphere (nor any other layer we could model by what we know about "normal stars"), it's extremely violent and unstable.
Basically it's not a "star" at all, just a giant angry blob of nuclear fusion.
So the fact that there is an actual predictable periodicity in its luminosity is almost unbelievable.
But it also kind of rules out the occlusion theory. I mean, of course that it's possible something traveled across it, but imho most likely the side facing us just had a streak of bad weather
In any case, it's bouncing back towards its usual luminosity already so unfortunately we're probably going to miss the show of our lifetimes.