Hi. Blind, die-hard bean-counter here. Powerplay is not dead. Powerplay is stagnant.
1. Powerplay is mechanically stagnant. Consolidation is the only significant mechanical change since overheads were adjusted early on.
2. Powerplay strongly favors defense.
3. Participation is low for all powers, and is unevenly spread across powers.
Powerplay's long-term mechanical stagnation is heavily tied to my third point; we all know that the core activities (fortification and undermining) are unpopular. With no real improvement in 97 weeks, veterans are finding it hard to justify continuing. The second result of powerplay's mechanical stagnation is that power leadership teams understand exactly how the system works and how to manipulate it in their power's favor. We don't make decisions based solely on spreadsheets, though. We make decisions based on what we think is possible, and what we think will be interesting. I do not believe that attempting to do something we know is mathematically impossible, or close to, is interesting for anyone. Climbing a hill is one thing. Trying to walk up a wall is another.
The problem is that powerplay is so favorable for the defender. It's not just that targeting specific systems for turmoil is nearly impossible. The bigger issue is that it is easier to fortify a system than it is to undermine it. Yes, there's cost involved, but after a year of stacked scan and massacre missions, veterans and new blood have the deep pockets they need to protect their powers. For a power like Patreus that has had a standing surplus for as long as I can remember, this used to mean fortifying systems to 50% in an attempt to manage our surplus. For other powers it meant building to 0 CC and then fortifying to at least 200 so that you could piggyback on what everyone else was doing in an attempt to avoid ruining your power with bad expansions.
Consolidation helped by giving powers the ability to simply not expand. Some people feel that this is the core problem — that powers need to be trapped, oscillating between surplus and deficit, with everyone constantly trying to scrap to stem the tide. The real problem that consolidation introduced is the defense bonus. Being able to decline to expand was enough. Having an impetus to fortify to 500 CC every single week is too much. It means that powers are habitually covering their best systems and are rewarded by a mechanic that makes it even harder to undermine the rare profitable system that isn't unfortified — and it takes four or five good systems fully undermined to push one into turmoil when powers are forecasting 500 CC weekly.
Some powers are incredibly defensible even without a consolidation bonus, as we saw again last week when Winters fortified out of a -500 CC turmoil by Sunday night. 97 weeks is a lot of time for powers to spend working on their triggers. Powers like Hudson, ALD, and Aisling, which can rely on significantly larger player bases and more fresh blood than other powers, due to strong bonuses, a good starting location, or the waifu factor, have managed to generate the manpower they need to cover their profitable systems even though they have no reduced triggers and a -400 CC deficit. While ending with hundreds of CC to buff their undermining triggers. Aisling in particular is amazing. Their economy is worse than Hudson's and they are still ending with close to 700 CC every week.
The overhead curve is part of the problem, too. Archon Delaine is, once again, almost mathematically impossible to turmoil. Only a few fortified systems will protect him. Yuri Grom is sitting higher up on the overhead curve, but it's a similar story there. Patreus is sitting at 54 systems, which means that putting us into turmoil is more possible — but forcing us to lose more than one system at a time would take a massive effort and would result in that system going to one of our allies anyway, which is, I suspect, directly contrary to our enemies' aims. Think about this: we could lose our absolute best system and have a higher starting balance next week because of it.
Let's step back to point 1: mechanical stagnation and bad gameplay. The core idea behind powerplay attracts people, and the communities that have built up around it keeps them involved. Enough of them, at least. But defense, while mechanically favored, is not fun. It costs money, it costs time, and it is incredibly repetitive.
Power communities do not want to be attacked. No one wants to fortify. Some people prefer it to undermining, but I doubt you will find many people who enjoy moving more than 5k tons a week. This induces some power leaders to stay out of the wider conflict (though some powers are entirely happy playing SimCity, which is fine, but I digress), which in turn induces powers to seek peace if possible. Is this a leadership problem? Are powers making the wrong decisions when they make decisions that are designed to strengthen their communities? Of course not. This is a problem with the game, not with power leadership.
Powers are also induced for this reason and others (basic IR theory) to form alliances. The four Empire powers are allied. This is partly due to mechanics, and partly due to a lot of hard work early on to prevent Frontier from railroading us into civil war (but hey, maybe they'll make it happen the second time! Good luck, Drew!). The two Federal powers are allied. Again, mechanics drove this. I imagine it took less work politically, as Frontier never pushed a narrative designed to force the Federal powers to go to war. I'm sure it took some, though, as there were some very strong personalities in the mix back then. Most of the other powers, who lack pre-built alliances, have worked to remain neutral as a result. Two of the independents have allied with the larger blocs (though one of them, for some bizarre reason, still insists that it is all alone in the galaxy).
I worked very hard on the ZYADA alliance, which tied the Empire powers together with Grom. I've received a lot of flak for that, as though I somehow did it alone (wrong) and somehow killed the last chance Powerplay had at becoming interesting. Some CMDRs in other powers seemed to have had this stupid, hilarious fantasy where the Empire, Alliance and Federation would join hands and fight the "red menace" together. I'm not going to into too much detail about how since-retired Winters leadership made this utterly impossible, but it was mechanically unrealistic as well. What would we have done? All join hands while kicking Grom in the teeth in a pointless attempt at keeping him in his starting systems until the end of time? Where would the fun in that be? Why bully the only truly fresh blood powerplay's ever had? It would have made the game even more static. It wouldn't have moved any systems.
Instead, we built an alliance against the Federation that has been very successful and created more dynamism than we could have otherwise seen. In the last three months, we've fought over weaponized expansions. We've launched incredible offensives. We've seen incredible defenses. Systems have changed hands, and stories have been told.
But it's slow. It's all very slow. Winters and Hudson are now consistently in the bottom half of the galactic standings. We're going to keep them there. Is that stagnation? Maybe. But it's been a long slog, because powerplay is a long slog.
Powerplay is mechanically broken. It's stagnant. It is desperate for attention. But it's not dead.
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I wonder what powerplay would look like without the cutter-billionaire fortification wizards...
Really, really, really bad for Hudson. Really bad for the rest of us.