More NHSS Threat 3 and 4 signals after Incursion state?

Xeno noob here!
Pleiades Sector HR-W d1-41.
On Thursday (today) the system turned from, I think it was Incursion, to happy Investment state.
Though Thatgoids' NHSS remained in large numbers, I kind of noticed that there are now more Threat 3 and 4 signals than higher ones. This is because in past few days I struggled to find 3 and 4, but today they are almost everywhere.

This does make sense, like, 'Goids lost a battle here so bigger ships are retreating, but could someone please confirm that this really works that way on server side?
Or the quantity of each NHSS Threat <level> is pure random on daily basis, not affected by system state?

No, I don't have a ship fit for Interceptors, Scouts only.
Good to know.
I'm useful in an AX wing for Interceptors, but solo I can only take on Scouts.

Hey here's a question.

In AX CZs - After about 8 scouts, two interceptors drop in, and I have to abandon the CZ.
Do those count as battles lost?

Would I be better off, not "joining the fight" and just collecting bounties?
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