Powerplay Weekly Statistics

Week 36 is the weirdest week to date... but not even that can stop the general advance of 12-way peaceful Powerplay progress.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week37+1
Total System Count11,945+86
Stronghold Count923+27
Fortified Count2,054+51
Exploited Count8,968+8
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)???-???
Cheapest Destruction Cost (i.e. cost to demote all current systems to Exploited)???-???
Stronghold Completion Percentage (current systems, by CP value)???-???
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, system count model)581-503
Projected weeks until all occupied systems are Fortified or better (using last four weeks to extrapolate, control point model)??????
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)18.7 ***+0.3
Acquisition target estimate21,598+228
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)41,557,491 ***-6,604,215
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7+1
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
*** For comparability, excluding the 6 CG systems. See later for details on those...

A substantial rise in completed Fortifications sees the Exploited system count stay almost constant, though the total system count rises by a normal amount. Despite facing the largest Powerplay attack in history, Aisling Duval gains a net 13 systems, and promotes another 23, and everyone else manages to make decent progression too.

The introduction of Decay means a lot of the previous statistics are not measurable properly and are blanked out above. This should stabilise in a bit once I can properly separate Undermining and Decay out. Discounting the CG outliers, the Reinforcement : Undermining ratio for normal activity doesn't change at all, though net reinforcement falls slightly (the -100 million from Decay applies to week 37, not 36)

Some completion of colonies (and/or EDDN data receipt for earlier ones) means that the Winged Hussars overtake Torval again, and Selous Syndicate is still gradually catching up.


So ... the CG?

Splitting the measure up between systems
Code:
+-----------+---------+----------+----------+-------+------------------+
| cg_target | systems | total_r  | total_u  | ratio | activity_per_sys |
+-----------+---------+----------+----------+-------+------------------+
|         0 |   10437 | 43911067 |  2353576 |  18.7 |             4432 |
|         1 |       6 | 16017969 | 15334615 |   1.0 |          5225430 |
+-----------+---------+----------+----------+-------+------------------+
The ratio for non-CG systems was essentially the same as last week, as indeed, were the amounts: Frontier's changes to give a token extra payout for undermining and make reinforcing merits more confusing having had - largely as expected - no effect at all on the control point headlines at all ... while the CG was essentially entirely extra to normal activities.

As noted above, of course, this was essentially entirely irrelevant to Powerplay itself.
- Duval lost two of the four CG systems, but was able to fortify the other four.
- on subsequent Acquisition, it looks like Archer might take Santy, but LYR can't take Gondul and Duval looks comfortably ahead of ALD to retake it
- so the net result of the biggest (non-Thargoid) attack in history is going to be that the defender loses a single system.



Obviously the big news of week 37 is going to be that, as we're not attacking each other at all, Frontier is going to start doing it for us with Decay - carefully calibrated to be even less impactful than the CG was: while 15 million CP from the CG is dwarfed by the estimated 110 million CP from the initial Decay ... at least the CG temporarily dropped two systems and maybe permanently switched one, which is more than Decay will ever do.

Is "lots of Undermining but none of it succeeds" the ideal outcome for Frontier? People hate getting successfully undermined, and don't seem to enjoy trying to undermine others, so now we have a way to have a 2:1 ratio in favour of "undermining" and let Powers continue to rapidly gain net systems - it's win-win!

(I will be separating out Undermining and Decay so far as possible in the stats in future weeks)
 
I wonder when they are going to fix the leaderboard, as it still displaying wrong number of systems... did someone open a ticket for that?
 
Week 37 sees the impact of the CG largely subside as the two main targets become Acquisition contests, but Decay adds a significant change.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week38+1
Total System Count12,006+61
Stronghold Count945+22
Fortified Count2,061+7
Exploited Count9,000+32
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,355,409,098New methodology
Number of Powers gaining systems11-1
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)8.0-10.7
Decay : Undermining ratio (CP)19.1New measure
Acquisition target estimate22,003+405
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)36,811,341-4,746,150
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==

Total systems pass 12,000 and total Exploited systems reach 9,000 with a slightly lower but not unusual amount of successful Acquisition. Promotion of Exploited systems to Fortified falls significantly, though - whether due to adjusted priorities with decay, a lot of gradual fortification failing, or just unusual noise is hard to tell since promotion to Strongholds are proceeding apparently normally.

The reinforcement:undermining ratio returns more towards the 10:1 range (ignoring the CG systems it would be 9.7:1) with a slight rise in general undermining levels and a similar fall in reinforcement levels.

As a new measure, there's also an estimated ratio of decay to undermining, which is starting out at 19:1. As decay is currently significantly outpacing reinforcement, it's likely that the total amount of decay will fall and this ratio will also fall - though it's likely to take quite some time before decay becomes a minority weakening component. Decay also makes some of the previous methods for measurements rather unreliable or difficult to collect, so some previous measures are retired, and total estimated CP value is being counted somewhat differently (only about half of the difference from the previous measure is due to the decay itself)


Edit: looking more closely it seems that the decay estimates being used weren't quite right (2/23 seems a better rate than 2/24 for Exploited decay, but even that seems a slight underestimate) which probably means the undermining estimate was out by a few million. The R:U ratio might still have been closer to the 20:1 region. I'll try to correct for this for next week's stats.
 
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Week 38 is back to a mainly non-PP affecting CG (a free system reinforcement for Kaine, but otherwise no effect), and a generally fairly slow week for both Acquisitions and Reinforcements

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week39+1
Total System Count12,074+68
Stronghold Count961+16
Fortified Count2,103+42
Exploited Count9,010+10
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,294,598,587-60,810,511
Number of Powers gaining systems10-1
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)11.8Methodology change
Decay : Undermining ratio (CP)24.8Methodology change
Acquisition target estimate22,224+221
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)39,668,417Methodology change
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
Two Powers stay exactly level on system count this time, though no-one loses out entirely, while decay takes another 60 million net CP off the total paper system value. Reinforcement levels are still a bit down on historical numbers but closer to normal again.

I've corrected the decay size calculations a bit - though it's still slightly approximate - which brings down the total amount of estimated real undermining somewhat and therefore actually boosts the decay:undermining ratio. The new calculations still aren't perfect but don't appear to be guessing more than a point or two wrong per system, which is good enough given the numbers involved.

Looking at the net impacts of all of Frontier's recent balance changes now that the calculations are a bit more stable:
- total reinforcement remains (when not significantly CG-affected) at around 40-50 million CP per week
- total undermining (likewise ignoring CGs) is a bit over 3 million CP per week - up slightly on the pre-decay numbers even allowing for the lack of separation, but still down on the numbers before they started changing anything
- total decay is presently running at close to twice all player effort in any direction, but this should level off gradually as it continues, though of course not actually changing any system states directly.

The sphere of acquirable systems continues to grow much faster than Acquisition itself is, though Torval is staying ahead of faction #8 for now (the Selous Syndicate, who pre-Colonisation owned a single system, and would be the first non-player minor faction to overtake a Power if they manage it)
 
Week 39 sees Soontill Relics back on the menu and a big rise in new Acquisitions, while reinforcements fall to a relatively low level.
Current valueChange from last cycle
Week40+1
Total System Count12,278+204
Stronghold Count975+14
Fortified Count2,130+27
Exploited Count9,173+163
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,249,538,096-45,060,491
Number of Powers gaining systems12+2
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)20.5+8.7
Decay : Undermining ratio (CP)23.7-1.1
Acquisition target estimate22,636+412
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)66,550,992+26,882,575
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
As a result of the focus on Acquisition, we go back to all Powers making gains in systems. The Reinforcement:Undermining ratio jumps up to 20.5 ... but this is heavily skewed by the CG itself showing that "casual reinforcement" is about 800 times more effective per player than "casual undermining". Taking Minerva out of both sides, it would be 13.6, relatively similar to the previous week, and total net reinforcement would be almost identical as well.

Decay continues to be much larger than player-led undermining, of course - though equally irrelevant in terms of the number of systems actually changing state. It's a little hard to tell at this stage how much it has succeeded in discouraging reinforcement more generally - a little, perhaps, though without moving that activity anywhere else.
 
With Relics staying active essentially all week, Week 40 sees Soontillplay reach new heights of activity.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week41+1
Total System Count13,142+864
Stronghold Count997+22
Fortified Count2,191+61
Exploited Count9,954+781
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,254,610,455+5,072,359
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)36.8+16.3
Decay : Undermining ratio (CP)22.0-1.7
Acquisition target estimate22,541-95
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)117,582,830+51,031,838
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
Acquisition is of course the largest beneficiary, with just over half as many new systems gained for Powerplay (+864) as came into existence (+1635). But Reinforcement benefits strongly too, with total net reinforcements at +83 being one of the highest levels for a while. As a result, the total CP strength actually rises slightly, despite decay, and the Reinforcement:Undermining ratio rises to a record 36.8:1 (assisted by a slight drop in Undermining to its lowest level since the start of July). The CG is still providing some excess (and strategically irrelevant) reinforcement to Minerva but unlike previous weeks this was not as major a distorting factor, and the estimate of 117 million net control points of Reinforcement is only exceeded by Powerplay's first few weeks.

With the heavy bias towards Acquisition rather than Reinforcement, the number of immediately Acquirable systems actually falls slightly - while the bubble as a whole is still growing faster than Powerplay can hope to catch up with, of course.
 
Anyone seeing new acquisition systems being shown as uncontrolled / back to zero?
Yes.
PP 2.0 does not seem to work properly in some colonies:
Crucis Sector GH-M A7-2, Ebanji, HIP 19793, HIP 69838, Hydrae Sector JC-V B2-1, "dozens of systems" for Aisling.
PP 2.0 Acquisition progress looks "wiped" to zero in these colonies after weekly maintenance yesterday, 2025-08-07 (Issues 77599,77600).

Although I am not so sure the progress was actually "wiped", rather, the server data was inconsistent.
I was able to get trade dividends, so the server that hands out trade dividends thought a system was in exploited state.
However, I could not cash the trade dividends in, because the server that pays credits for trade dividends thought a system was in unoccupied state.

 
Yes.
PP 2.0 does not seem to work properly in some colonies:
Crucis Sector GH-M A7-2, Ebanji, HIP 19793, HIP 69838, Hydrae Sector JC-V B2-1, "dozens of systems" for Aisling.
PP 2.0 Acquisition progress looks "wiped" to zero in these colonies after weekly maintenance yesterday, 2025-08-07 (Issues 77599,77600).

Although I am not so sure the progress was actually "wiped", rather, the server data was inconsistent.
I was able to get trade dividends, so the server that hands out trade dividends thought a system was in exploited state.
However, I could not cash the trade dividends in, because the server that pays credits for trade dividends thought a system was in unoccupied state.

We've seen systems show as exploited but with the progress bar at zero unoccupied, so yes inconsistent. Only happens for some people. One of our Cmdrs found that cleaning up some cache files fixed the problem so it appears to have been client side at least for him.
 
For a slightly longer-term look at how that whole "encourage offensive actions" thing is going:
ratio.png

and
amounts.png


Broadly:
- "incentives" to behaviour through merit payouts or decay: no measurable effect
- holding CGs: sometimes significant (usually pro-reinforcement) effects in the host system, unsurprisingly no effect elsewhere
- disabling the most effective undermining method and re-enabling the most effective reinforcement method: pretty effective, just not in the direction they wanted
 
For a slightly longer-term look at how that whole "encourage offensive actions" thing is going:
View attachment 436775
and
View attachment 436776

Broadly:
- "incentives" to behaviour through merit payouts or decay: no measurable effect
- holding CGs: sometimes significant (usually pro-reinforcement) effects in the host system, unsurprisingly no effect elsewhere
- disabling the most effective undermining method and re-enabling the most effective reinforcement method: pretty effective, just not in the direction they wanted
Fundamental problem is the best um activity that exists rn is 2-5x slower than typical reinforcement speed. undermining is a losing battle of attrition. Unless that's fixed don't expect things to be different
 
With Relics staying active essentially all week, Week 40 sees Soontillplay reach new heights of activity.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week41+1
Total System Count13,142+864
Stronghold Count997+22
Fortified Count2,191+61
Exploited Count9,954+781
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,254,610,455+5,072,359
Number of Powers gaining systems12==
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)36.8+16.3
Decay : Undermining ratio (CP)22.0-1.7
Acquisition target estimate22,541-95
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)117,582,830+51,031,838
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
Acquisition is of course the largest beneficiary, with just over half as many new systems gained for Powerplay (+864) as came into existence (+1635). But Reinforcement benefits strongly too, with total net reinforcements at +83 being one of the highest levels for a while. As a result, the total CP strength actually rises slightly, despite decay, and the Reinforcement:Undermining ratio rises to a record 36.8:1 (assisted by a slight drop in Undermining to its lowest level since the start of July). The CG is still providing some excess (and strategically irrelevant) reinforcement to Minerva but unlike previous weeks this was not as major a distorting factor, and the estimate of 117 million net control points of Reinforcement is only exceeded by Powerplay's first few weeks.

With the heavy bias towards Acquisition rather than Reinforcement, the number of immediately Acquirable systems actually falls slightly - while the bubble as a whole is still growing faster than Powerplay can hope to catch up with, of course.
Only 1635 systems came into existence, as in colonized last week?
 
Only 1635 systems came into existence, as in colonized last week?
Yes. An approximation, of course - some of them will have been colonised in previous weeks but not sent through EDDN until now, while some of this week's will have been missed.

That does seem to be an acceleration on recent weeks, though - the Panther is likely speeding up the process quite a bit.
 
Week 41 is the hangover as everyone is either burnt out, taking a break, or has forgotten how to Powerplay if you can't haul relics in ridiculous bulk.

Current valueChange from last cycle
Week42+1
Total System Count13,161+19
Stronghold Count1,004+7
Fortified Count2,206+15
Exploited Count9,951-3
Total Estimated CP Value (approximate cost to build the current structure from nothing)3,252,711,069-1,899,386
Number of Powers gaining systems9-3
Reinforcement : Undermining ratio (CP)17.6-19.2
Decay : Undermining ratio (CP)18.3-3.7
Acquisition target estimate22,555+14
Total net reinforcement estimate (CP)62,451,876-55,130,954
Minor Factions larger than smallest Power7==
Minor Factions larger than largest Power1==
We go from the highest increase in system count, straight to the lowest - and while successful reinforcements are also pretty slow (possibly because all the low-hanging fruit got picked off last week, and all the medium-hanging fruit has been eaten by decay) the net Exploited system count also falls. Of course, ALD not being able to hang on to a lot of their recent Acquisitions also skews that figure quite a bit. As a result, and with Decay still staying at a high though decreasing level, the net CP strength of the bubble does fall slightly. Still, despite the slowness, we now have over 1,000 Strongholds between the Powers - impressive, considering that we only started with just over 100.

Not a lot of change in the effective size of Powerplay - total Acquisition targets only rise slightly, Selous Syndicate breaks 600 systems but isn't really gaining on Torval, the Dukes of Mikunn return to widening their margin over Duval.
 
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