Thanks for that well written explanation, it makes sense to me.What I think he is meaning, is that if you have a restricted network setup (ie non working inbound connections), then you are relying on that the other players in your instance have working inbound, so that your client can connect to them. But if all the players in the instance, have restricted setups, there will be no instance, as you are now unable to establish a connection between the players. This is something we can notice with how long it takes to enter an instance, like jumping into a system, dropping out of super cruise near the space station etc, etc.
So the game detects hey there is already a player in super cruise in the system you are jumping too,a dn that player is in your "part" of the world, like Europe, so lets connect these players, so part of the loading screen, ie the jump animation, is to establish a connection with the player already there.
If that player have fully working NAT setup, then you have no problem connecting to the other player, and you are now both in the same instance. Now the player have reached the station, and drops out of super cruise, and you now becomes the instance holder.
Another player jumps into the system, with a fully working NAT setup, So that player cannot connect to you, but you can connect to the other player, and soon the other player is visible in super cruise, that player is just passing through and is soon jumping away.
Now comes a 3rd player, that have a similar restricted network setup as you, and now that player cannot join your instance, as they cannot establish the connection with you, and you cannot connect to the other player, this will for the other player end up being a longer time to load the instance, as the game will try to establish a connection, and then eventually give up, back in the days, this meant a connection error for that player, or just sitting there in limbo, like forever... now the game seems to realise that connection is not possible, and a new instance is created for the other player...
This is a very simplified version on how this works, and if there are more players, the game try to bounce and share the traffic between those players who can talk to each other. So it is quite possible, that if there already was another player in your instance that have a working NAT, now that player could relay data between you and the newly arrived player, and this of course can introduces lag.
And there are several ways that you can establish connections between two clients behind NAT, and which of these works is highly dependant on your router and what settings your router has. Some are very competent and forgiving, and others are severely restricted. and to make it worse, it is not possible for all to choose their router, as some are forced to use whatever router their ISP is giving them... Hence why this is so complicated.
If you want to dig deeper into what the different variants of "NAT" means, and what restrictions we can encounter here.
I can recommend this page.
https://dh2i.com/kbs/kbs-2961448-understanding-different-nat-types-and-hole-punching/
I thought the port forwarding thing you can do in the ED network settings was supposed to do that though?
If not, what is it for?