Some new, and some old anomalous market behaviour

Two bits of anomalous market behaviour here, which may be of interest.

Behaviour on Zero Demand
The first is to do with the behaviour of commodities when they reach zero demand, and seems to be new in 3.7.05 - if you actually get a commodity down to zero demand, which takes some doing, it stops regenerating the demand normally and stays at zero for a while.

Here's an example with Gold - you can see it being zeroed briefly in early August but recovering on the normal slope, whereas when the same happened on the 11th it pinned to zero for over a day before returning to normal.

To check this wasn't a coincidence, I did the same with Synthetic Reagents
As you can see, they aren't traded heavily, and normally regenerate pretty fast
...but once it hits zero, the regeneration stops. This isn't just demand being a signed value behind the scenes - I only "oversupplied" by about 100t, which shouldn't have kept it sub-zero for more than a couple of hours at most.

Pretty cool addition, I think, to give "met" demand a bit more stickiness and even make it plausibly possible to meet a (small!) station's entire demand. (Does anything happen if you do? If anyone with a fleet of haulers wants to test it, get in touch.) Zeroing supply doesn't do this - it just regenerates as normal - which is fair enough.

Then I moved to another station nearby and tried with Tea
Zeroed the demand in two trips easily enough ... but then it wouldn't stay zeroed - the regeneration stopped, but it consistently rebounded to a floor of 74t. Most of my subsequent sales don't show on the graph, but every single dot between the two zero points is me showing up, dropping >74t on the market, then going back to get some more. But ... as you can see from the later data points and comparing to the earlier regeneration, it has paused the regeneration rate for several hours.

Well, it's not perfect yet, clearly, but still, pretty neat.

Anomalous Behaviour under a Boom+Civil Liberty exact state combination in High-Tech economies
But, why was I looking at behaviour at zero-demand in the first place? It's a pretty rare condition pre-3.7.05 for anything but LTDs (and there's the well-known bug with infinite regeneration stopping the other core gems and Painite being affected by that) and they regenerate slowly enough not to need an explicit zero "hold"

Well, it turns out that a few of the local high-tech stations have permanently zero demand for a small subset of goods when in the Boom+Civil Liberty combination. This behaviour appears to have been going on since Civil Liberty and multistate was introduced in 3.3

Here's Silver at Whirling Station, for an example.
In Boom+Civil Liberty the demand is zero, unchanging. In just Boom, just Civil Liberty, or Boom+Civil Liberty+anything else, the standard market effect multipliers for the Boom and Civil Liberty states are applied.

Another example - Imperial Slaves at Spassky's Prospect

So far all the stations I've found this applies to are high-tech ones. There appears to be no apparent connection between the goods.
[Station, System, Faction]
Whirling Station, Ogmar, GCDC = Beryllium, Clothing*, Cobalt, Food Cartridges*, Gallite, HN Shock Mount*, Power Generators*, Rutile, Silver, Water*, Water Purifiers*
Dervish Platform, Ogmar, GCDC = Clothing, Food Cartridges, HN Shock Mount, Power Generators, Water, Water Purifiers
Spassky's Prospect, Macrath, Sovereignty = Imperial Slaves

Whirling Station's set of 11 is a superset of Dervish Platform's 6 (adding some minerals and metals)
Spassky's Prospect's single commodity is entirely disjoint - though Imp Slaves are outlawed at the other two.

I can't think of a plausible explanation for why the exact combination Boom+Civil Liberty would zero a small random selection of import demands while in effect, but not consistently between stations. If it's a bug, I can think of no plausible mechanism by which it might occur. If it's intentional ... I can think of no plausible reason for Frontier to do it.

Has anyone else got stations outside Colonia in Boom+Civil Liberty right now? If so, are any of your demand levels exactly zero? (If this only happens at three Colonia stations, then it's even weirder, and I'm not ruling out a subtle "have you tried listening to it" tin foil message)
 
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Two bits of anomalous market behaviour here, which may be of interest.

Behaviour on Zero Demand
The first is to do with the behaviour of commodities when they reach zero demand, and seems to be new in 3.7.05 - if you actually get a commodity down to zero demand, which takes some doing, it stops regenerating the demand normally and stays at zero for a while.

Here's an example with Gold - you can see it being zeroed briefly in early August but recovering on the normal slope, whereas when the same happened on the 11th it pinned to zero for over a day before returning to normal.

To check this wasn't a coincidence, I did the same with Synthetic Reagents
As you can see, they aren't traded heavily, and normally regenerate pretty fast
...but once it hits zero, the regeneration stops. This isn't just demand being a signed value behind the scenes - I only "oversupplied" by about 100t, which shouldn't have kept it sub-zero for more than a couple of hours at most.

Pretty cool addition, I think, to give "met" demand a bit more stickiness and even make it plausibly possible to meet a (small!) station's entire demand. (Does anything happen if you do? If anyone with a fleet of haulers wants to test it, get in touch.) Zeroing supply doesn't do this - it just regenerates as normal - which is fair enough.

Then I moved to another station nearby and tried with Tea
Zeroed the demand in two trips easily enough ... but then it wouldn't stay zeroed - the regeneration stopped, but it consistently rebounded to a floor of 74t. Most of my subsequent sales don't show on the graph, but every single dot between the two zero points is me showing up, dropping >74t on the market, then going back to get some more. But ... as you can see from the later data points and comparing to the earlier regeneration, it has paused the regeneration rate.

Well, it's not perfect yet, clearly, but still, pretty neat.

Anomalous Behaviour under a Boom+Civil Liberty exact state combination in High-Tech economies
But, why was I looking at behaviour at zero-demand in the first place? It's a pretty rare condition pre-3.7.05 for anything but LTDs (and there's the well-known bug with infinite regeneration stopping the other core gems and Painite being affected by that) and they regenerate slowly enough not to need an explicit zero "hold"

Well, it turns out that a few of the local high-tech stations have permanently zero demand for a small subset of goods when in the Boom+Civil Liberty combination. This behaviour appears to have been going on since Civil Liberty and multistate was introduced in 3.3

Here's Silver at Whirling Station, for an example.
In Boom+Civil Liberty the demand is zero, unchanging. In just Boom, just Civil Liberty, or Boom+Civil Liberty+anything else, the standard market effect multipliers for the Boom and Civil Liberty states are applied.

Another example - Imperial Slaves at Spassky's Prospect

So far all the stations I've found this applies to are high-tech ones. There appears to be no apparent connection between the goods.
[Station, System, Faction]
Whirling Station, Ogmar, GCDC = Beryllium, Clothing*, Cobalt, Food Cartridges*, Gallite, HN Shock Mount*, Power Generators*, Rutile, Silver, Water*, Water Purifiers*
Dervish Platform, Ogmar, GCDC = Clothing, Food Cartridges, HN Shock Mount, Power Generators, Water, Water Purifiers
Spassky's Prospect, Macrath, Sovereignty = Imperial Slaves

Whirling Station's set of 11 is a superset of Dervish Platform's 6 (adding some minerals and metals)
Spassky's Prospect's single commodity is entirely disjoint - though Imp Slaves are outlawed at the other two.

I can't think of a plausible explanation for why the exact combination Boom+Civil Liberty would zero a small random selection of import demands while in effect, but not consistently between stations. If it's a bug, I can think of no plausible mechanism by which it might occur. If it's intentional ... I can think of no plausible reason for Frontier to do it.

Has anyone else got stations outside Colonia in Boom+Civil Liberty right now? If so, are any of your demand levels exactly zero? (If this only happens at three Colonia stations, then it's even weirder, and I'm not ruling out a subtle "have you tried listening to it" tin foil message)
Let me check later :)
 
for clarification: demand is 0, supply is 0, but commodity shows in the commodity market or not?
Demand is zero, the commodity is on the normal import list for the economy, the commodity shows up on the "Sell" page of the market screen and gets (barely!) profitable prices, not the "half of galactic average" that an irrelevant commodity would have.

Market.png
 
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got something. bester prospect, suhte. a bunch of 0-0 commodities in civil liberty/boom, extraction/industrial economy.
 
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got something. ballard survey, suhte. a bunch of 0-0 commodities in civil liberty/boom, extraction economy.
Water, Food Cartridges, Power Generators, Water Purifiers - in common with Whirling / Dervish
Basic Medicines, Non-Lethal Weapons, Personal Weapons - exported by High-Tech, so can't apply to my examples

Clothing - on the Whirling / Dervish lists, but normal behaviour at Ballard.

Interesting.
 
also note, that an industrial economy - arine, wescott does not show it, but it is also the system the faction is expanding from.

whirling has no expansion originating from it?
 
So, I just checked out an Industrial economy in the bubble. Had numerous things in low demand, nothing at zero though.
 
okay, i can say from suhte, that expansion form another system + civil liberty + boom is not producing those 0-0 demands. i'll check back after the expansion.
 
The "filled" demand effect is certainly interesting and a welcome addition to a more dynamic and realistic trading system. It explains why a trade BGS route I've been doing for days stops with agronomic treatment flooring at a demand of 2, and Inara wasn't prepared to deal with this situation in case of commodities freezing at a demand of 0 so I provided the info on my own some time ago. However due to the multiple states still affecting the price and some commodities just being too good, it may remain very profitable to keep trading.
 
Interestingly, market stock for Synthetic Reagents demand appears to be quantised
Baseline stock for this station in this state is 338 tonnes, and each step appears to be 3 or 4 tonnes. Not clear exactly why

Similarly for Palladium demand - baseline 1213
again, it seems to quantise in approximate steps of 4 (though the baseline is much higher, so it's not that it's recording as integer percent of baseline)

On the other hand Non-Lethal Weapons seem to be regenerating
continuously - plenty of points just 1 apart here. This isn't in Boom+Civil Liberty, so maybe it's another demand weirdness associated with that state pair?
 
Quite interesting, thanks for the research Ian. I would love to see if "filling up the demand" of a station has any effects other than the obvious market ones. If I remember correctly, FDev did mention something like this regarding the new galnet/events/community goals narrative. "Potential to change the diplomatic landscape of the galaxy as we know it" and "reshape corporations and markets".

But carry on, I'm probably not adding anything to the discussion with this speculation :p
 
Well, it took a bit of hauling, but I managed to zero the demand at Damask Rose for every good at once.
MarketZeroesA.png

MarketZeroesB.png

EDDN entry: https://ross.eddb.io/eddn/log/501288649

Based on some occurrences during this effort, I've changed my mind - I think it's just that Demand is a signed integer so if you overfill it it takes a while to recover from negative numbers. e.g.

There also seems to be some imperfect syncing between servers for good sales, so things jump about a bit.

Given the likely explanation of demand being signed and tracked negative, I'm now not expecting anything in particular to happen, but still worth a try. If I get time tomorrow I'll try to re-zero anything that's recovered so it's zero over the tick.
 
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