Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?

Aleks Zuno

Aleks Zuno
Indeed; victory in Kaurukat! Attention is shifting to HIP 22524 (76%), and Vasupari joins the fight. The Alert in Nihal (74%) is still progressing just barely beyond the rate needed to complete it; if it is not too late for me by then, I will try running some delivery missions there.

Extra thanks to those who have been maintaining that solid progress in the background which makes it possible to take this many systems in one cycle; you have done much, and I hope we can make it become part of the results.

Top targets at 22:20 4th January 3309:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 2 ports – 76%
Nihal Alert – 74%
HIP 7338 Invasion + 1 port – 46%


CMDR Aldebaran said:
Anyone care to help me with Nihal? I've been plugging away most of the day doing supply missions.. that bar is moving oh so slowly.. (and i'll have to call it a day soon)
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Doing what I can to highlight its viability, and it will have my attention after HIP 22524!
 

Aleks Zuno

Aleks Zuno
A few hours remain, and HIP 22524 (84%) needs just about a few hours of support to complete! It can be done, though it will be closer than Muruidooges was, and it needs Commanders not to abandon it. I was just about ready to recommend against it, but it turned out that my view of its progress was just short of a refresh, after which it looked considerably more possible.

As a fourth Alert system with 392% projected, Nihal will be almost certainly short. I will be emphatically in favour of defending it as an Invasion system if the Alert does not complete, and in the meantime I can only suggest to Commanders there that moving one over to M. Indra and helping at HIP 22524 would be a purely logical action. Given that I have been tentative about Nihal for several days, and given the popularity of Invasion systems, I think also that I should be quicker to recommend leaving an Alert system in favour of an Invasion system if the former does not project a decisive completion.

Top targets at 02:00 5th January 3309:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 2 ports – 84%
Nihal Alert – 78%
 

Kayvan

Kayvan
Aleks Zuno said:
HIP 22524 Invasion + 2 ports – 84%
Nihal Alert – 78%
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Bad news, everyone -- despite a hard effort, we failed to complete either of these systems. :(

Nihal is now being invaded, with 1 port open, 1 under attack (both outposts, so no large pads)

HIP 22524 still has a port under attack, so I predict it will be cleared in a couple of days.
 

Ned Flandalorian

N
Muruidooges is back to a start of alert after being saved in its first week of invasion and going through one week of recovery.

This seems to match a theory: saving systems in early stages of invasion is easier (more functional ports and effective actions are possible) but saving them in the harder later stages gives a greater reward by extending the recovery period (during which they are immune to being reinvaded).
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Ned Flandalorian said:
Muruidooges is back to a start of alert after being saved in its first week of invasion and going through one week of recovery.

This seems to match a theory: saving systems in early stages of invasion is easier (more functional ports and effective actions are possible) but saving them in the harder later stages gives a greater reward by extending the recovery period (during which they are immune to being reinvaded).
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Greater reward depending on the objective, at least - if the aim is to make it slower for them to gain territory in a particular area, then letting the system run down to the last week of Invasion before saving it maximises the time between actions to keep it out of Control. If the aim is to keep the system fully operational, saving it in Alert means there's no interruption. Different systems probably have different aims.
 

Cori

Cori
Hmmm, logged off docked in a LYR control system (don't tell the authorities). Logged on now and it's gone to Thargoid Alert state. Wonder what happens on a PowerPlay level if they invade it?
 

CMDR nighty

C
First of all thanks to @Aleks Zuno for keeping this updated and allowing me to focus my noob powers on smashing some thargoids lately in places where it matters (also lining my pockets, but eh, details). Seeing the numbers of players in the top prio systems in this thread clearly shows that this helps a LOT so thanks four your help.


On topic: Can somebody please confirm if current prio 1 target HIP 22524's status has been wiped to 0 again? was this the regular progress wipe or is something off here? to me it currently shows 0 progress and if this is indeed the case - is it still priority target?
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Cori said:
Hmmm, logged off docked in a LYR control system (don't tell the authorities). Logged on now and it's gone to Thargoid Alert state. Wonder what happens on a PowerPlay level if they invade it?
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There was another LYR Control system invaded previously and it didn't seem to do anything directly.

Powerplay Exploited systems in Thargoid Control state do stop generating CC ... so far no Powerplay Control system has ended up in Thargoid Control so we don't know what happens then.
 

Cori

Cori
Ian Doncaster said:
There was another LYR Control system invaded previously and it didn't seem to do anything directly.

Powerplay Exploited systems in Thargoid Control state do stop generating CC ... so far no Powerplay Control system has ended up in Thargoid Control so we don't know what happens then.
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Presumably because their population goes to zero. I'm tempted to suggest we should try it with this control system, for science, but I suspect that might annoy LYR's people.
 

Dogface

Dogface
I would like to point out that HIP 22524 has no space ports, making supply/passenger runs more difficult. Normally, I would run to the system on the top of the list, but last week I shifted to Nihal, which has 2 ports. If other transport pilots did the same thing that may be why we lost both contests, instead of one.
 

Ned Flandalorian

N
Progress was wiped, squads have refocused and HIP 22524 probably won't be a priority any more (OP hasn't updated the first post since tick). Most active systems will likely be Nihal (AXI), Chinas (PDES/VANG) and HIP 7338.
 

Aleks Zuno

Aleks Zuno
Ned Flandalorian said:
Muruidooges is back to a start of alert after being saved in its first week of invasion and going through one week of recovery.

This seems to match a theory: saving systems in early stages of invasion is easier (more functional ports and effective actions are possible) but saving them in the harder later stages gives a greater reward by extending the recovery period (during which they are immune to being reinvaded).
Click to expand...

I have seen this idea in a few places, and I consider it incomplete—it makes the assumption that we will have fewer total Alerts if some of them are blocked by Recovery systems, whereas another valid hypothesis is that the total Alerts in one cycle are distributed only to normal Human systems, unmodified by Recovery. In the latter case, it matters not whether a new Alert targets a system which recovered quickly, because the alternative is that it targets some other system anyway.

In effect, I think that saving Muruidooges originally has protected some closer system from being targeted now. We completed one system, thus the advance was slowed by one system.


Ian Doncaster said:
Greater reward depending on the objective, at least - if the aim is to make it slower for them to gain territory in a particular area, then letting the system run down to the last week of Invasion before saving it maximises the time between actions to keep it out of Control. If the aim is to keep the system fully operational, saving it in Alert means there's no interruption. Different systems probably have different aims.
Click to expand...

As above, I do not think that will slow the gain of territory; the rate of territory change is simply Alerts minus Completions per cycle. Without a specific equation for Alerts which explains why there would be fewer if we have more Recovery systems (or Invasion for that matter), I think it more likely that one system saved is one unit of advance slowed, regardless of whether new Alerts targets previous systems.


CMDR nighty said:
On topic: Can somebody please confirm if current prio 1 target HIP 22524's status has been wiped to 0 again? was this the regular progress wipe or is something off here? to me it currently shows 0 progress and if this is indeed the case - is it still priority target?
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It has reset; this makes it a suggested opening target based on considering the effort to back a form of vote, insofar as choosing a target that way would best respect the time of those Commanders in the previous cycle. That said, as new effort occurs it would also best respect that time spent by supporting it as well.


I will be making a Week 6 post in a moment, though it is only the suggested previous cycle targets for the moment, and will do its initial progress check a bit later!
 

Aleks Zuno

Aleks Zuno

Week 6, 5th January 3309​

Report
HIP 22524, Nihal, HIP 20719, Luggerates, Chinas, HIP 7338, Patollu defended from Invasion.

Targets updated at 23:40 11th January 3309
Chanyaya Invasion + 1 port – 78%
Yemaki Invasion + 3 ports – 54%
Namayu Invasion + 3 ports – 52%
HIP 21380 Invasion + 2 ports – 50%
HIP 11111 Invasion + 2 ports – 46%
Vogulu Alert – 36%
HIP 116351 Invasion + 0 ports – 30%
Paitra Invasion + 1 port – 30%
Lubal Alert – 22%
Vaipacnali Invasion + 1 port – 18%
HIP 18075 Invasion + 2 ports – 16%
HIP 20485 Alert – 10%
Chnemine Invasion + 0 ports – 8%
Holvandalla Alert – 8%
Col 285 Sector AF-E b13-5 Alert – 6%
Dhang Tzela Invasion + 0 ports – 6%
HIP 38235 Invasion + 1 port – 6%
HIP 20492 Alert – 4%
Jementi Alert – 4%
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-5 Invasion + 0 ports – 4%
Arietis Sector KM-W d1-94 Controlled – 2%
HIP 113535 Invasion + 0 ports – 2%
Pegasi Sector MN-S b4-0 Controlled (empty) – 2%
Trianguli Sector EQ-Y b4 Controlled (empty) – 2%

Week 5, 29th December 3308​

Report
HIP 19198, 70 Tauri, Bi Dhorora, Gliese 9035, Marindhs, Kaurukat defended from Invasion.
Alert repelled in HIP 26688, Huile, Gabia.
 
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Ned Flandalorian

N
Aleks Zuno said:
I have seen this idea in a few places, and I consider it incomplete—it makes the assumption that we will have fewer total Alerts if some of them are blocked by Recovery systems, whereas another valid hypothesis is that the total Alerts in one cycle are distributed only to normal Human systems, unmodified by Recovery. In the latter case, it matters not whether a new Alert targets a system which recovered quickly, because the alternative is that it targets some other system anyway.

In effect, I think that saving Muruidooges originally has protected some closer system from being targeted now. We completed one system, thus the advance was slowed by one system.
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I didn't mention anything about alerts, the theory was about how the difficulty of stopping an invasion (based on how far it has progressed) matches the reward. Alerts being generated would be a completely separate mechanic.
 

Ian Doncaster

Ian Doncaster
Aleks Zuno said:
As above, I do not think that will slow the gain of territory; the rate of territory change is simply Alerts minus Completions per cycle.
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Correct - that's why I said "in a particular area". If it is the case (inconclusive) that Alerts must be generated within X LY of an existing Control system, then blocking their advance in a specific direction is potentially most efficiently achieved (ignoring for now differences in difficulty by stage) by stopping the relevant systems switching to Control in the final week of their Invasion, with the aim of establishing an Orange-Purple wall which they find it hard to put things down beyond, and which costs them 10 weeks per system attempt but only costs us 1 week per system defence.

Their total number of successes wouldn't be affected, so this defence would come at the cost of allowing them freer expansion elsewhere. But depending on what was being walled off from them, that might be considered acceptable.
 
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