Thargoids taking over the bubble in 3.. 2...

Given that around 70% of players don't care too much for Thargoid content* the new incursion state (which lasts indefinitely) might actually become a big deal.

Worst case scenario: Requirement to fend-off Thargoids in a system is way too high, eventually there will be damaged stations all over and noone bothering to repair.


The bubble 6 months from now:






All I'm saying is, historically speaking, FD sometimes often needs a little time to get the balance right. I fear for the bubble.

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[SUP]*10k votes, and yes, it's only OA viewers but it's still a good estimate[/SUP]
 
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How long is Elite:Dangerous likely to remain a widely played game? 3 years...5 years? Its not open to modding so is unlikely to have a essentially unlimited lifespan in the vein of Falcon 4.0 or Rome:Total War...is it?
Even if EVERY Station Defence Fails (Unlikely) and NONE are ever repaired (equally unlikely) that gives you between 300 and 500 Stations in the remaining lifespan of the game out of how many Thousands in the Bubble???
Not something you need to lose sleep over...
Besides don't worry the 2.8% (TM) that do care about Thargoid content will protect at least SOME of you snowflakes...
 
Wow - that poll is interesting - thanks for the link:)

It seems bizarre to me that 17% of people would choose that "I've never seen a Thargoid and don't know anything about them." on an OA video - given he's talked about them a reasonable amount, but as you say it's a pretty big sample size.
 
It was once said that we players play a marginally low role at the overall grand scheme, yet the thargoid stuff is 100% influenced by players. But if we are just small in the grand scheme why would fending off and repairing stations be a player only task? feels rubbish and badly designed.

also the poll is skewed because people completely not interested in thargs simply ignore to poll so they don't even participate in saying "nope, don't care don't matter, don't want"

lore wise it doesn't even make sense, the thargs couldn't even take colonia and co, and now they set up a large scale bubble attack? This design choice is giant frozen pile of biowaste floating through space. And I blame mostly the pregrind for proper anti xeno stuff that FD implemented which made people not care much about it.
 
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Given that around 70% of players don't care too much for Thargoid content* the new incursion state (which lasts indefinitely) might actually become a big deal.
There's a lot of parameters to balance, but I wouldn't expect it to cause problems for the bubble as a whole. Even if they went from the current 3 Thargoid groups to 30, and set the thresholds to "unbeatable in practice", it'd be a decade before they'd caused serious damage. With a fairly long series of existing data they can probably make a good guess at what the thresholds need to be to hit the "possible but not guaranteed" range.

Some of the other new/modified BGS states might have potential to cause rather more significant disruption to the bubble - we'll see what happens there.
 
Worst case scenario: Requirement to fend-off Thargoids in a system way is too high, eventually there will be damaged stations all over and noone bothering to repair.
Worst-case scenario: everyone drops dead tomorrow in real-life. Then what?

The point being there is currently zero information available, at all, on how this will play out. Making worst-case scenarios is pointless when it is based on nothing, especially when the entire process is under full control of FD. So whatever 'the worst case' you can imagine is, it'll only happen if FD wants that. The bubble wont burn overnight, so if it goes to slow/fast they'll adjust it.
 
Worst-case scenario: everyone drops dead tomorrow in real-life. Then what?

The point being there is currently zero information available, at all, on how this will play out. Making worst-case scenarios is pointless when it is based on nothing, especially when the entire process is under full control of FD. So whatever 'the worst case' you can imagine is, it'll only happen if FD wants that. The bubble wont burn overnight, so if it goes to slow/fast they'll adjust it.
But rampant speculation is a long and glorious tradition on the FD forums.
 
It was once said that we players play a marginally low role at the overall grand scheme, yet the thargoid stuff is 100% influenced by players. But if we are just small in the grand scheme why would fending off and repairing stations be a player only task? feels rubbish and badly designed.
Interesting idea, if FD had made it so that the repair totals were also influenced by NPCs (i.e. RNG) then that would have covered up the errors they have in registering player repair shipments.

I think I'd rather have more concrete numbers than less - we would have less people getting confused about how to repel the Thargoids if we had the actual numbers.
 
And if the whole bubble is burning to the point that players run away in droves, FD can always tune down the requirements to fight thargoids/repair starports by 90% or any other number.
It's not that there is no precedent to that. So the scenarios of the bubble's demise are greatly exaggerated :D
 
So....
- I don't repair stations, because they're not stations I care about.
- I don't fight Thargoids, because they're not in systems I care about.

As soon as that changes, you'll see me there, and I don't really mind if it's "just me" repairing any stations I do care about, and fighting off Thargoids in systems I care about.

Personally, I'd be much more involved in Thargoid stuff if there were missions to collect tissue samples or hearts from the various Thargoid types, or scans, probes/links/sensors and the like.

UA interference already got switched off, so I'm not worried about FD letting it run rampant anyway.
 
And if the whole bubble is burning to the point that players run away in droves, FD can always tune down the requirements to fight thargoids/repair starports by 90% or any other number.
It's not that there is no precedent to that. So the scenarios of the bubble's demise are greatly exaggerated :D
Yeah, worst case scenario is that everyone disengages completely from the 'story' - those 30% who have been following have had a year of trying to repair stations on minimal pay for shipping goods long distance or repeatedly fighting Thargoids from a pretty predictable (often repeated) set of systems. I wouldn't be surprised if they all just stopped soon (once the AX CZ lose their freshness), especially if the plan is 'keep doing this for another year while we make the next version'.

The story needs to move on from repeated defending to either more research / narrative options or an offensive / player-led defence - the lack of player agency is this area is disappointing.
 
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The point being there is currently zero information available, at all, on how this will play out. Making worst-case scenarios is pointless when it is based on nothing, especially when the entire process is under full control of FD. So whatever 'the worst case' you can imagine is, it'll only happen if FD wants that. The bubble wont burn overnight, so if it goes to slow/fast they'll adjust it.
Well, it's based on the low interest for Thargoid content + FD's game balancing history and the fact that the incursion state doesn't expire. You're right though, the final and most important variable is how exactly it'll be implemented.
I don't exactly share your optimism regarding FD "adjusting" things though. But who knows, even if it turns out this way it could actually be interesting – maybe this exactly what FD is going for and they already have future plans? It's gonna be interesting either way.
 
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... Making worst-case scenarios is pointless when it is based on nothing, especially when the entire process is under full control of FD. So whatever 'the worst case' you can imagine is, it'll only happen if FD wants that. The bubble wont burn overnight, so if it goes to slow/fast they'll adjust it.
This.

If the "wors't case" happens, FDev will add an automatic station repair mechanism that doesn't require player involvement.

Non-issue solved.
 
The main issue I see with the Thargoid incursion BGS state - and with famine and outbreak - is that, from what I've read, it's based on RNG.
As a result predicting how often this will happen is impossible at this time.

I guess that FDev aims to get one or two systems into Tharogoid incursion BGS state (TIBS) every week as an automated way to do what they, apparently, currently do by hand.
In this scenario nothing would change - if nothing goes wrong with the RNG.

The problematic aspect of this is, that FDev has a solid track record of completely misjudging player involvement in various activities and a tendency to put to much emphasis on new additions to the game.

I won't be surprised if FDev at first has the chance of a system going into TIBS to high and the requirements to get the system out of TIBS and repair it to high (not enough materials getting produced in the bubble to repair stations comes to mind).

But as others already pointed out, there is no need to worry about something that might, or might not, happen. We will see what happens in the months after 3.3 gets released.
 
...and with famine and outbreak - is that, from what I've read, it's based on RNG.
Not true.

Outbreak and Famine have a natural uptick which is easily countered by most player interaction. So when a faction goes into Outbreak or Famine, it's because:
- The natural uptick to one of those has occurred without player interaction; or
- Deliberate actions have been taken to cause those states.

... where Outbreak can be caused by Deliver Biowaste Missions[1] and Famine can be caused Kill Skimmer missions.

[1] Not to be confused with the urban legend that trading biowaste on the commodity market can cause outbreak.
 
I would be happy with a more intense Thargoid assault.

Back when the Thargoid attacks began advancing toward through the bubble toward Sol, I headed out in my FGS and Corvette and did some battle. It was some great combat practice (which I sorely needed), and decent fun for a short session. Almost no money, though. Missions were unreliable, and pay was tiny per Thargoid kill.

To finance my futher focus on AX play, I had planned to get heavy into post 3.3 mining. I got my Corvette all set, even bought a few paints for it. But after playing the 3.3 beta... I think the Exploration updates are going to be more appealing to me, than what they've done with mining. I'll have to await the final release to see where things fall, of course. With Exploration being a bit more time intensive (compared to mining for income), I may get less time on the AX combat front than I hoped, but we shall see.

Overall, I say bring on the Thargoids. Give me some stations to fight for, some sort of front line to push back. I personally find this aspect of combat far more appealing than doing battle with/against most of the minor faction squabbles.
 
Not true.

Outbreak and Famine have a natural uptick which is easily countered by most player interaction. So when a faction goes into Outbreak or Famine, it's because:
- The natural uptick to one of those has occurred without player interaction; or
- Deliberate actions have been taken to cause those states.

... where Outbreak can be caused by Deliver Biowaste Missions[1] and Famine can be caused Kill Skimmer missions.

[1] Not to be confused with the urban legend that trading biowaste on the commodity market can cause outbreak.
That's how it currently works. If I did understand the comments correctly by FDev about the BGS this will change.
 
The mission system should spawn lucrative delivery missions to star ports impacted by Thargoid activity to aid the repair.
 
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