That was amazing! Teng-hui Hub

[Deleted member 182079]

As I said in my other thread, I suspect that FC owners will hoard their Tritium now instead of trading as it is so rare for fuel.

I was doing this since day one - well 'hoarding' is relative, the highest tonnage I had in stock was around 4,000, it's now down to about 1,500t.

It'll be interesting to see what those who have dozens of billions will do though - the margins are less now, and as long as they won't use it up themselves by going on prolonged exploration trips/Colonia, who would want to buy on their carriers unless prices are reasonable (30k-ish), which also assumes they bought it for cheaper otherwise why make a loss on it. Which I have my doubts about, given the insatiable greed on display for many of those players.

 

[RiotRabit]

Nope, it wont
Tritium supply are being replenished at a puny rate - so a market with 450000 tons supply can fill 20-25 carriers and that's all, see the OP.
Pre Patch 3, a system with 4k price will be stuffed with carriers (100+ carriers at any moment, no free slots) and the nearby systems would be pretty much the same.

As i said in my previous post - current supply replenish rates are making sense in a 30 players game, not in a game where thousands of players were trading tritium splitting profits between carrier owners and pure haulers.

Tritium mining was killed too - not like it had any noticeable impact on trading, tho

Sounds like players will have to resort to mining to me. And with it being 'killed', it sounds like market demand will go up. Sounds suspiciously like a wholly player-driven market/"gold rush".

 

[Deleted member 182079]

Sounds like players will have to resort to mining to me. And with it being 'killed', it sounds like market demand will go up. Sounds suspiciously like a wholly player-driven market/"gold rush".

I honestly can't see players starting to mine Tritium for others - for their own carriers, sure, but the prices aren't high enough to motivate them to mine for profit. They'll just mine LTDs or Painite instead.

 

[catanonia]

I was doing this since day one - well 'hoarding' is relative, the highest tonnage I had in stock was around 4,000, it's now down to about 1,500t.

It'll be interesting to see what those who have dozens of billions will do though - the margins are less now, and as long as they won't use it up themselves by going on prolonged exploration trips/Colonia, who would want to buy on their carriers unless prices are reasonable (30k-ish), which also assumes they bought it for cheaper otherwise why make a loss on it. Which I have my doubts about, given the insatiable greed on display for many of those players.

I move my FC a lot for my type of play. I managed to get 6500t in reserve and for one I won't be selling even when I bought at 4k. As for mining Tritium, tried it straight after the patch for my own fuel reserves and just was not worth the time. Time will tell what happens.

 

[Northpin]

Sounds like players will have to resort to mining to me. And with it being 'killed', it sounds like market demand will go up. Sounds suspiciously like a wholly player-driven market/"gold rush".

Nope, we had a player driven market with traders filling up carriers in 4k tritium systems, then traders emptying carriers in 52k tritium systems - splitting profits.
This won't happen if tritium is not available in large quantities.

And no, nobody will mine tritium to sell it at 30-50k per ton. It didnt happened pre-patch 3 when tritium was abundant and it certainly wont happen now when tritium mining gives puny yield - so small that DSSA is in deep trouble mining tritium in the black.

 

[RiotRabit]

I honestly can't see players starting to mine Tritium for others - for their own carriers, sure, but the prices aren't high enough to motivate them to mine for profit. They'll just mine LTDs or Painite instead.

I suppose you're right. Players would never be willing to pay someone else to do the work for them if they had the credits...

 

[RiotRabit]

Nope, we had a player driven market with traders filling up carriers in 4k tritium systems, then traders emptying carriers in 52k tritium systems - splitting profits.
This won't happen if tritium is not available in large quantities.

And no, nobody will mine tritium to sell it at 30-50k per ton. It didnt happened pre-patch 3 when tritium was abundant and it certainly wont happen now when tritium mining gives puny yield - so small that DSSA is in deep trouble mining tritium in the black.

As scarcity increases, demand increases. If FC owners want to move their carriers, they'll either end up increasing their buy price for tritium, mine it themselves, or buy it from stations. If a station can only fuel ~25 carriers at best, I don't imagine that last one will go over well. Especially if non-FC owners get involved and start buying it, too.

 

[Deleted member 182079]

I suppose you're right. Players would never be willing to pay someone else to do the work for them if they had the credits...

The problem is that the outrageous numbers of the past couple of years from mining income have become the standard in most player's minds, you can still make profit in the current economy but most won't bother because they're focusing on min-maxing. Just the way (most) players are, and I'm no exception even though I didn't engage in the mad rush to get excessively rich by trading/hauling Tritium 24/7 - got my fix doing half a dozen hauls then got bored so moved on to something else.

And when I say "excessively rich" I mean making dozens (or even hundreds) of billions of credits - there's literally no use to them in the game once you own all ships, modules and fully fitted FC other than satisfying a number fetish.

 

[askavir]

It's far simpler to do something else to earn the money to buy Tritium at 40k/ton, than mining the Tritium.

Honestly I disliked the infinite supply handwavium, I prefer supply and demand to apply to all goods, no exceptions. But with only a handful of stations selling cheap Tritium at any given time, it will be a constant race and many will never get there in time to get a single load.

But if I have to occasionally spend a few hours mining painite / doing palladium haul missions / ferry some tourists to refill the carrier with 25k of Tritium at 40k/ton, I can perfectly live with that.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

As i said in my previous post - current supply replenish rates are making sense in a 30 players game, not in a game where thousands of players were trading tritium splitting profits between carrier owners and pure haulers.

The bubble as a whole had about 275 million tonnes of Tritium pre-patch day.

Regeneration rates seem to be about 60 days for full recovery (my early estimates were a bit pessimistic).

That's ~4.5 million tonnes per day, bubble-wide, of Tritium, or enough to completely fill up ~180 carriers a day

That doesn't seem like it's going to be a problem, especially since (in the long term, when they fix it) mining can top that up.

(Now, if you want to fill up for just 4k/tonne rather than 40k/tonne, then the early bird gets the worm, as it should be for anything sold at a 90% discount)



As an aside, as this shows and the Great Palladium Shortage showed, there are basically two settings for "supply and demand": generous enough that no-one notices it's there, and "low enough to matter" which means, yes, sometimes you won't be able to get your cargo because someone else has bought it first. (Personally I find the latter sort of economy more interesting, which is one reason I'm out in Colonia with its higher player:economic-unit ratio)



EDITs: might actually be a 45 day regeneration cycle - finally found some clean-ish data - which would be closer to 6 million tonnes per day or ~250 carriers.

Also corrected extra zero on carrier/day figure above - sorry, typing too fast there.

 

[Defacto]

Does someone have any data on production rates?
Say that you have a 1 million population refinery economy. How many tonnes of Tritium (for example) would be produced per hour? How much production will the station store before supply is fully filled up? Ian Doncaster! Help!

I have been told that economy size increases with the square root of the population. Is that correct?

We're very far from running out of Tritium. 4k Tritium, sure, but that is expected for a trade good that is demanded (because Fleet Carrier is apparently useless, no one will ever use them, maintainance is a feature-destroying punishment, and yet, in defiance of all this, players keeping zoom-zooming around...). I can see several Megatons just in Cemiess/Achenar. For ~40k, sure, but if that price is so low that no one bothers mining it...

Edit: Wow, and Ian Doncaster arrives and provides an answer literally the same moment that I press the 'post' button. Thank you!

 

[Kamiyoda]

Sounds like players will have to resort to mining to me. And with it being 'killed', it sounds like market demand will go up. Sounds suspiciously like a wholly player-driven market/"gold rush".

They won't. 1 ton of Painite is worth 10 tons of tritium, and much easier to find. It's still better to just mine other stuff, sell it, then buy tritium for 40k/t

 

[RiotRabit]

And when I say "excessively rich" I mean making dozens (or even hundreds) of billions of credits - there's literally no use to them in the game once you own all ships, modules and fully fitted FC other than satisfying a number fetish.

That's the point I've been trying to make. I can think of a purpose for all those billions of credits. Set a Tritium buy price that will actually entice miners to make money getting you Tritium.

 

[Deleted member 182079]

Ian Doncaster! Help!

Edit: Wow, and Ian Doncaster arrives and provides an answer literally the same moment that I press the 'post' button. Thank you!

Am I the only one here thinking that Ian should start charging a fee for his services?

 

[MarkyH]

As scarcity increases, demand increases. If FC owners want to move their carriers, they'll either end up increasing their buy price for tritium, mine it themselves, or buy it from stations. If a station can only fuel ~25 carriers at best, I don't imagine that last one will go over well. Especially if non-FC owners get involved and start buying it, too.

There is no scarcity of Tritium in refinery systems in the bubble, only scarcity of "cheap , 10 x under market rate" Tritium. INARA listed as a "Buy" via "Supply" shows top 100 Tritium supply systems, each with 300k-550k tons of supply. That's 35m tons, enough to fill 35000 FC tanks at one time, or 1750 FC in one go each with 20,000 tons.

The rub is the price. which range from 41k ton to 44.4k ton.

The new reality, those that are not willing to work hard to direct fuel or rean credits to buy fuel, for their FC, wont be going very far.

I have 7000T, will last me months in the bubble doing stuff. So lets see how it pans out.

 

[Deleted member 182079]

That's the point I've been trying to make. I can think of a purpose for all those billions of credits. Set a Tritium buy price that will actually entice miners to make money getting you Tritium.

Not sure I follow... If I own a FC, and am swimming in billions of credits, why would I set high buy order prices if I can just buy the Tritium at 40k at various stations in the bubble? Unless I'm a philanthropist that is... and I reckon that's a rare breed....

 

[RiotRabit]

Not sure I follow... If I own a FC, and am swimming in billions of credits, why would I set high buy order prices if I can just buy the Tritium at 40k at various stations in the bubble?

I suppose you won't, based on what one of the above posters said. You'll just have to hunt for it every once in a while.

 

[Kamiyoda]

Not sure I follow... If I own a FC, and am swimming in billions of credits, why would I set high buy order prices if I can just buy the Tritium at 40k at various stations in the bubble?

Because I want to do other things besides refuel my carrier for 20 minutes and I have the money to incentivise(Spelling?) other people to do it for me?

 

[Deleted member 182079]

There is no scarcity of Tritium in refinery systems in the bubble, only scarcity of "cheap , 10 x under market rate" Tritium. INARA listed as a "Buy" via "Supply" shows top 100 Tritium supply systems, each with 300k-550k tons of supply. That's 35m tons, enough to fill 35000 FC tanks at one time, or 1750 FC in one go each with 20,000 tons.

The rub is the price. which range from 41k ton to 44.4k ton.

The new reality, those that are not willing to work hard to direct fuel or rean credits to buy fuel, for their FC, wont be going very far.

I have 7000T, will last me months in the bubble doing stuff. So lets see how it pans out.

Presumably "your" loyal worker bees have already left the sinking ship then?

 

[Deleted member 182079]

Because I want to do other things besides refuel my carrier for 20 minutes and I have the money to incentivise(Spelling?) other people to do it for me?

How much would you want to pay for it though? 50k? 100k? Suppose my question is what price do you put on your own laziness... I'd say if 40-50k/t profits are desirable enough for traders to play along, it could still work, but that means it'll cost you 2bn for say 20k tons of Tritium @ 100k credits. How many times will you likely do it, and how many others would before that 'market' dries up for haulers... Interesting to see how this will work out though. Could certainly be a nice earner for less advanced players.

Another question is how do you advertise your demand if you're not parked in a busy system - do haulers check Inara for FC demand/supply? I tend to filter them out because I don't trust other players by default