General / Off-Topic The safest place

See, that is the thing : we can not even reliably say how bad the seasonal flu season is . Does anyone really think when a Nation reports 6, or 8, or 10 million people infected during a flu season, it is based on accurate testing ?
It's quite possible to get accurate figures from a limited sample size.
 
And you don't think the testing being done is accurate?
You are discussing semantics with a non native english speaker . Could we just quickly switch to German for this discussion ? I would feel more comfortable, and probably would make less mistakes when conveying my thoughts .
 
People die every day

Some of them also have Covid-19 when they pass

No one is telling us how much impact this has had on total global death rate or even within a given country compared to the normal daily death rate.

If that doesn't give you some idea what's going on here...

Go ahead - enlighten me

The US just hit 1k over the last 3 months Let's call it 1200 by end of Q1

Assuming all would have survived and not passed except for infection consequences, are we talking about an extra 15/day out of 350 Million?

The reduction in vehicle traffic covers that. Roads are empty.
 
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Do we send the bill to China, when this is all over?
Accidental or not, this is their fault.
Well that's quite the question. I'd say yes, although I'm not sure how that's enforced! Somewhat ironically, if the animal markets were the origin, the cause was a lack of severe regulation in a country known for its highly regulated systems and draconian punishments. I read (not saying its true) that they were 'worried' that banning outright such markets would drive them underground where they'd be harder to keep track of,so thru were somewhat tolerated.

What's really needed is a large social change in their attitude towards animals and the weird beliefs they have in their healing powers. It's just bonkers and clearly dangerous. Maybe this will be a wake up call. Maybe not...
 
Well that's quite the question. I'd say yes, although I'm not sure how that's enforced! Somewhat ironically, if the animal markets were the origin, the cause was a lack of severe regulation in a country known for its highly regulated systems and draconian punishments. I read (not saying its true) that they were 'worried' that banning outright such markets would drive them underground where they'd be harder to keep track of,so thru were somewhat tolerated.

What's really needed is a large social change in their attitude towards animals and the weird beliefs they have in their healing powers. It's just bonkers and clearly dangerous. Maybe this will be a wake up call. Maybe not...
The Spanish Flu originated in Kansas... XD . Brace for bills incoming Kansas .
 
It's quite possible to get accurate figures from a limited sample size.
According to the models the Norwegian health authorities are using for forcasts, it seem to me that you can use the number of dead(most accurate number we have) to calculate the number of infected.
If Hospitals still have adequate capacity and it’s not very early in the cycle, 2000 is a fair estimate.

In Norway that means 14*2000=28000 infected. Official numbers are 3200.

this is of course a very rough estimate, but it’s far closer than the official reports.
 
Actually that is debatable.
Some say it originated in a military hospital / stage camp in France (Etaples)
Kansas, USA or China were also proposed, but not really likely.
Actually, noone is sure where it originated...its just, the first documented case allegedly was reported at a military base in Kansas .
 
You are discussing semantics with a non native english speaker . Could we just quickly switch to German for this discussion ? I would feel more comfortable, and probably would make less mistakes when conveying my thoughts .
I'm fairly confident your English is much better than my German.

Anyway, I'm not trying to confuse you, I'm just trying to understand what has you convinced that the statistics for flu cases aren't accurate.

Rapid flu tests aren't particularly accurate (a lot of false negatives), but the tests used for the statistical tracking of flu cases are generally quite accurate and adequately representative.

People die every day

Some of them also have Covid-19 when they pass

No one is telling us how much impact this has had on total global death rate or even within a given country compared to the normal daily death rate.

If that doesn't give you some idea what's going on here...

Go ahead - enlighten me
If someone who has tested positive for coronavirus, who has no other pathogens that would cause pneumonia, then dies of pneumonia characteristic of COVID-19, it's a pretty damn safe bet that COVID-19 killed them.

Crude death rate statistics are easy to find. So, I'm not sure why you are finding it difficult to figure out the impact on overall mortality rates, which is as easy as subtracting the COVID-19 fatalities (which are reasonable well documented in most developed nations) from the rest.
 
UK Chancellor. If you're self employed and have been understating your profits in your tax returns, this could bite.

Sunak said that the 95% of the self-employed would be able to get 80% of their average monthly profits over the last three years up to £2,500 a month under his scheme to help those who have lost work because of coronavirus. The people who are not covered are the self-employed who make more than £50,000 a year. Sunak said people in this group had average incomes of £200,000. He claimed his scheme was very generous by international standards.
 
Do we send the bill to China, when this is all over?
Accidental or not, this is their fault.
It was first identified in China. How do you know the Chinese are to blame?
America is 23.6 trillion in debt.
Economies collapse globally but investors around the world still want to make it rain. The only currency that appears to be stable right now is the $.
What do you reckon?
 
I'm fairly confident your English is much better than my German.

Anyway, I'm not trying to confuse you, I'm just trying to understand what has you convinced that the statistics for flu cases aren't accurate.

Rapid flu tests aren't particularly accurate (a lot of false negatives), but the tests used for the statistical tracking of flu cases are generally quite accurate and adequately representative.

[...]
I am not convinced the statistics for flu cases aren't accurate . I do know that they base the numbers on rather small sampe sizes and extrapolate . In fact, I have read the rki documents on the 2017/2018 as well as the 2018/2019 flu season in Germany . I am aware of the sentinel and random testing done all through the year to see which are the emerging virusses which will try to kill people come winter . I know that the "flushots" composition is decided somewhen early fall . I know that for Germany in 2017/2018, the one Virus that killed most people...was not actually covered in the "flu shot" administered to the majority of people . I do know that for H3N2 ( one of the 3 covered in the shot ), you were 21% MORE likely to still get infected after the shot...because it had mutated since they composed the shot . I do know that the efficacy of the yearly flu shot was at around 15% for 2017/2018 . All this, I learned from reading RKI documents .

When I wrote what I did, what I meant to say is : they do not get the flu numbers by actually testing ALL the people . As well as, many deaths attributed to the flu are just that...deaths that are attributet to the flu . For Germany in 2017/18, estimated deaths "attributed" to the flu = 25k. As per RKI numbers, deaths actually confirmed to have been "death by flu" = roughly 1.600 .
 
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It was first identified in China. How do you know the Chinese are to blame?
America is 23.6 trillion in debt.
Economies collapse globally but investors around the world still want to make it rain. The only currency that appears to be stable right now is the $.
What do you reckon?
China knew about the outbreak in Wuhan and kept it quiet. This lead to the global spread and is why they are to blame.
It is also overwelmingly likely that the virus originated in a nasty Wuhan food market.
 
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