General / Off-Topic The safest place

The Vitamin D Hypothesis updated

What is Vitamin D?

Vitamin D penetrates cells, gets 2 stage hydroxylated to an active form, binds to other things to make a big molecular complex, and then taxis pull that into the nucleus, where it sticks to our DNA. Over 2000 genes get affected, and the chemical output of that is then multiplexed out into the cell, affecting God-knows-what else. It is waaaaay more complicated than you can imagine, but things we know for sure are: Calcium metabolism and strengthening of bone, modulation of the immune system, and suppression of cancers. It also improves muscular strength and lowers risks of cardiac disease. Seems generally benign.

There appears to be some evidence that taking modest doses daily works better than one giant monthly dose. Overspill into all tisues leads to local tissue effects better that way. Big bolus doses get stashed in fat. Safe doses daily is <10,000 IU daily for an average adult, but there is no firm guidance. Giant doses seem surprisingly safe, but may not help much. People absorb it better in the morning.

Natural sources are widespread, but animal fat/fish oils are good. Levels are low nowadays because of indoor life.

The characteristics of the victims in the world's ICU's are:
  • obese
  • over 60
  • male > female
  • darker skinned > lighter skinned
  • hypertensive

The one thing they all have in common is lower vitamin D levels.
D is fat soluble, so obese people redistribute the whole body amount into a lower concentration. D is made in the skin by sunlight, so it's levels are likely inversely proportional to darkness of the skin, at higher latitudes. Biosynthesis speed drops with age, partly because older people spend less time outdoors.

Obese men vs Obese women: D level is lower in the men. (Norway)
There is some direct supporting evidence that low Vitamin D is associated with more severe disease. There is a list here. They are summarized in this spoiler.
  • Researchers from the U.K. evaluated the average vitamin D levels and the number of COVID-19 cases, as well as the death rates, across 20 European countries. Countries with low average vitamin D blood levels in the population had higher numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, says study leader Petre Cristian Ilie, MD, PhD, research and innovation director at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Foundation Trust in King's Lynn, U.K.
  • At Northwestern University, researchers used modeling to estimate that 17% of those deficient in vitamin D would develop a severe COVID-19 infection, but only about 14% of those with healthy vitamin D levels. They estimated the association between vitamin D and severe COVID-19 based on a potential link between vitamin D deficiency and C-reactive proteins, or CRP, a surrogate marker for severe COVID-19
  • In a small study, Louisiana and Texas researchers evaluated 20 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, finding that 11 of the patients admitted to the ICU were vitamin D deficient, but only four of those not needing the ICU.
  • Indonesian researchers evaluated 780 documented cases of COVID-19 and found that most patients who died had vitamin D levels below normal.
  • Irish researchers analyzed European population studies and vitamin D levels, finding countries with high rates of vitamin D deficiency also had higher death rates from COVID-19. Those researchers asked the government to raise the vitamin D recommendations.

As the evidence gets collected, the theoretical basis is being examined.
This paper looks at some biochemistry related to it. I'll just pick out one bit:
Vitamin D supplementation also enhances the expression of genes related to antioxidation (glutathione reductase and glutamate–cysteine ligase modifier subunit) [40]. The increased glutathione production spares the use of ascorbic acid (vitamin C), which has antimicrobial activities [41,42], and has been proposed to prevent and treat COVID-19
Glutathione and NAC has been looked at by other authorities, and mentioned in some detail on Medcram. I find this stuff essential to know, but it's probably not for everybody-
Update 69
Update 70

There are some possible projections we can draw:
  • The Muslim world places its women in sun-blocking clothing, and they likely will have very low Vitamin D levels. Look for the male>female ratios to be different in those populations in the ICU's.
  • Southern US states with recreational activity like Florida should do better than expected by the models.
  • Equatorial territories should do best at holding down the death rates.

The amount of benefit from plenty vitamin D might be small, affecting only a few people per 100 population that gets sick. We don't know yet.

disclaimer- no monetary benefit accrues to me from any supplements or medications. I personally take a list of substances daily, which includes NAC, 8000-10000 IU of Vitamin D3 and other things, because of specific goals. I am biased in favor of these substances.
It is likely that having Vitamin D in abundance in your tissues will offer general benefits, which might include a better chance of survival from infections, particularly if you have the risk factors in the ICU list up above. There are no studies that confirm this with certainty. A very few people may have reason not to use Vitamin D, such as Hypercalcaemia, Kidney Stones, etc.
 
The Vitamin D Hypothesis updated

What is Vitamin D?

Vitamin D penetrates cells, gets 2 stage hydroxylated to an active form, binds to other things to make a big molecular complex, and then taxis pull that into the nucleus, where it sticks to our DNA. Over 2000 genes get affected, and the chemical output of that is then multiplexed out into the cell, affecting God-knows-what else. It is waaaaay more complicated than you can imagine, but things we know for sure are: Calcium metabolism and strengthening of bone, modulation of the immune system, and suppression of cancers. It also improves muscular strength and lowers risks of cardiac disease. Seems generally benign.

There appears to be some evidence that taking modest doses daily works better than one giant monthly dose. Overspill into all tisues leads to local tissue effects better that way. Big bolus doses get stashed in fat. Safe doses daily is <10,000 IU daily for an average adult, but there is no firm guidance. Giant doses seem surprisingly safe, but may not help much. People absorb it better in the morning.

Natural sources are widespread, but animal fat/fish oils are good. Levels are low nowadays because of indoor life.

The characteristics of the victims in the world's ICU's are:
  • obese
  • over 60
  • male > female
  • darker skinned > lighter skinned
  • hypertensive

The one thing they all have in common is lower vitamin D levels.
D is fat soluble, so obese people redistribute the whole body amount into a lower concentration. D is made in the skin by sunlight, so it's levels are likely inversely proportional to darkness of the skin, at higher latitudes. Biosynthesis speed drops with age, partly because older people spend less time outdoors.

Obese men vs Obese women: D level is lower in the men. (Norway)
There is some direct supporting evidence that low Vitamin D is associated with more severe disease. There is a list here. They are summarized in this spoiler.
  • Researchers from the U.K. evaluated the average vitamin D levels and the number of COVID-19 cases, as well as the death rates, across 20 European countries. Countries with low average vitamin D blood levels in the population had higher numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, says study leader Petre Cristian Ilie, MD, PhD, research and innovation director at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Foundation Trust in King's Lynn, U.K.
  • At Northwestern University, researchers used modeling to estimate that 17% of those deficient in vitamin D would develop a severe COVID-19 infection, but only about 14% of those with healthy vitamin D levels. They estimated the association between vitamin D and severe COVID-19 based on a potential link between vitamin D deficiency and C-reactive proteins, or CRP, a surrogate marker for severe COVID-19
  • In a small study, Louisiana and Texas researchers evaluated 20 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, finding that 11 of the patients admitted to the ICU were vitamin D deficient, but only four of those not needing the ICU.
  • Indonesian researchers evaluated 780 documented cases of COVID-19 and found that most patients who died had vitamin D levels below normal.
  • Irish researchers analyzed European population studies and vitamin D levels, finding countries with high rates of vitamin D deficiency also had higher death rates from COVID-19. Those researchers asked the government to raise the vitamin D recommendations.

As the evidence gets collected, the theoretical basis is being examined.
This paper looks at some biochemistry related to it. I'll just pick out one bit:


Glutathione and NAC has been looked at by other authorities, and mentioned in some detail on Medcram. I find this stuff essential to know, but it's probably not for everybody-
Update 69
Update 70

There are some possible projections we can draw:
  • The Muslim world places its women in sun-blocking clothing, and they likely will have very low Vitamin D levels. Look for the male>female ratios to be different in those populations in the ICU's.
  • Southern US states with recreational activity like Florida should do better than expected by the models.
  • Equatorial territories should do best at holding down the death rates.

The amount of benefit from plenty vitamin D might be small, affecting only a few people per 100 population that gets sick. We don't know yet.

disclaimer- no monetary benefit accrues to me from any supplements or medications. I personally take a list of substances daily, which includes NAC, 8000-10000 IU of Vitamin D3 and other things, because of specific goals. I am biased in favor of these substances.
It is likely that having Vitamin D in abundance in your tissues will offer general benefits, which might include a better chance of survival from infections, particularly if you have the risk factors in the ICU list up above. There are no studies that confirm this with certainty. A very few people may have reason not to use Vitamin D, such as Hypercalcaemia, Kidney Stones, etc.
Would that explain why Covid hasn't exploded in the hotter regions of the world like Africa and Asia, yet people enthinically of those regions in colder climes (Europe and America) are being hit hard? Edit, I know there are socio/economic reasons as well, but a lot of BAME in the UK hit are doctors and Nurses....not poor.
 
Would that explain why Covid hasn't exploded in the hotter regions of the world like Africa and Asia, yet people enthinically of those regions in colder climes (Europe and America) are being hit hard? Edit, I know there are socio/economic reasons as well, but a lot of BAME in the UK hit are doctors and Nurses....not poor.
If no one is doing the tests - covid doesn't exist

And the only way to spot it would be to compare the monthly average of reported acute respiratory syndromes and compare it with previous years...
...or a more grim approach would be to compare the number of deaths and compare it with the averages from previous years
 
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I have not been following the thread assiduously so maybe this is not relevant but:

So they made an "official'" exception to something that they knew everyone would be doing on the sly anyhow, despite the fact that it absolutely fly's in the face of the science and the purpose of the quarantine (s).
 

LeoBartlet69

Formerly '[MEOW]LeoBartlet'
So they made an "official'" exception to something that they knew everyone would be doing on the sly anyhow, despite the fact that it absolutely fly's in the face of the science and the purpose of the quarantine (s).
When governments model the impact of the virus they also factor in compliance with the lockdown and non-compliance so yes they are aware people will take a cheeky visit to loved ones and stand next to people well within the 2m limit.


Not aware of any data for households of cases. Reasonable to assume a lower adherence in nonsymptomatic household members.
If you search using the keyword compliance you will find the UK government had no expectations that 100% of people will be 100% compliant with the lockdown.

One has to believe that governments on the continent and elsewhere have similar modelling and expectations.
 
Lancet study on Hydroxychloroquine across 671 hospitals worldwide, and a population of >96000 patients ( including control group) who got treated within 48 hrs of diagnosis:
The study cohort included 63 315 (65·9%) patients from North America, 16 574 (17·3%) from Europe, 7555 (7·9%) from Asia, 4402 (4·6%) from Africa, 3577 (3·7%) from South America, and 609 (0·6%) from Australia (details of the number of hospitals per continent are presented in the appendix, p 3). The mean age was 53·8 years (SD 17·6), 44 426 (46·3%) were women, mean BMI was 27·6 kg/m2 (SD 5·5; 29 510 [30·7%] were obese with BMI ≥30 kg/m2), 64 220 (66·9%) were white, 9054 (9·4%) were black, 5978 (6·2%) were Hispanic, and 13 519 (14·1%) were of Asian origin (appendix p 4

Results in short:
  • no benefit
  • increased deaths
  • increased cardiac problems
(Compared to controls.)

This is in agreement with the VA study. Significantly large cohort involved.
Strong evidence against using HOCQ for this purpose, at this dosage. It is hard to justify continuing to try something when the death rate goes up all over the world in many centres, confirmed by 2 studies now.

If it did work, by now we should be able to identify a real benefit vs the controls, but that has not materialized. This is disappointing, as we could really use a break in the fight.
This makes the prophylaxis trial look suspect. If it increases mortality, and some of that group gets the disease(say asymptomatically), is that study going to kill some of them?

(It is still undoubtably better than injecting disinfectant, and NO, I shall never let that one go. It is important to remember how colossally stupid the source of that is, and why it should be permanently discredited in order to save lives. )
 
(It is still undoubtably better than injecting disinfectant, and NO, I shall never let that one go. It is important to remember how colossally stupid the source of that is, and why it should be permanently discredited in order to save lives. )
The "stupidity" is in anyone actually thinking that's what was promoted. He spoke out of turn and provided the perfect sound bite for you guys to run with, I'll grant you that, but anyone who interpreted that as him suggesting people drink disinfectant is just plain goofy.
 
Of course they can.

I can only speak for myself but I've never criticised 'America' on here to my knowledge. I've criticised some Americans for sure (mainly the one we can't refer to) but I've been equally critical of his British counterpart, his British counterpart's previous opposite number who was an utter clown in my opinion, and many, many others.

I'm pretty sure I've said this before on here but having visited your fair country, my impression of Americans is that they're no more (or less) likely to have praiseworthy or negative traits than any other group of 10 or more people that you could find, from any single country or a selection of countries. Some are idiots, some are not, same as Brits and any other nationality you could name.
Red, I'm speaking to other's here who happen to be reading our exchanges, not just you. I know that you were joking, and personally I thought it was funny. But there are others who aren't joking and take every opportunity possible to create negativity and that's where my comments are aimed more so than you which is why I've hit the "like" button on your last few posts.
 

LeoBartlet69

Formerly '[MEOW]LeoBartlet'
Red, I'm speaking to other's here who happen to be reading our exchanges, not just you. I know that you were joking, and personally I thought it was funny. But there are others who aren't joking and take every opportunity possible to create negativity and that's where my comments are aimed more so than you which is why I've hit the "like" button on your last few posts.
Jason have you found that source yet?
 
Jason have you found that source yet?
Not planning on writing an essay for you Leo. There's plenty of info floating around and you know as well as I do that you don't want to discuss it, you just want to see who I'm quoting and go straight to attacking them like your Dr. Shiva "hair dryer" angle. I'd go so far as to say there's so much stuff floating around that paints the Gates' as ominous characters that the burden in all honesty should be placed on proving that they aren't bad actors. Like I said before I'm happy to have a discussion, but that involves both parties acting in good faith and since you literally never act that way rationale discussion and the exchange of ideas is impossible.
 
Probably for the best if its one of your long ones. I'd imagine your neck would not be happy if you fell asleep at the desk :D
It's funny, I realised the other day that I hardly ever do long-form posts on here at least not compared to some of the epics I used to churn out elsewhere. As you know I'm a better writer than I am an editor lol.
 

LeoBartlet69

Formerly '[MEOW]LeoBartlet'
It's funny, I realised the other day that I hardly ever do long-form posts on here at least not compared to some of the epics I used to churn out elsewhere. As you know I'm a better writer than I am an editor lol.
You tailor your responses to your audience which means long form replies are not needed when a simple tissues.gif will suffice.
 
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