General / Off-Topic The safest place


Researchers in Barcelona examining archived frozen samples of sewage ( Where do you sign up for that job!?) found signs of Sars Cov 2 virus in March 2019.
This dates to the first identification in a ?human source. Raises a big pile of questions. Like how come there wasn't an outbreak in Barcelona if people were shedding the virus a whole year before it hit Europe?

Or was there?


Ok, so these are the numbers from Barcelona. 2018, 2019 and 2020 are marked with arrows.

2019 was not a year with an unusually big number of influenza like cases. 2018 was worse, 2015 and 2016 were about the same. So, where was Coronavirus hiding? Why didn't people get sick?

It seems very unlikely that a virus this infectious would appear in Spain, go underground for a YEAR, travel round the world, and then pop up in Wuhan. Where could it be coming from?
“All samples were negatives regarding the SARS-CoV-2 genome presence except for March 12, 2019, in which the levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive, using two different targets”, says the researcher.
The sample only yielded a positive test for ONE week.
The result could be consistent with a small group or single traveller, not in an infectious phase but still excreting faecal virus. Nobody would get the respiratory illness, but the test would find it. That implies that Sars Cov 2 is not native to Barcelona. Did the traveller/s leave? Did the virus stop being passed? We cannot tell, nor can we detemine the source of the illness. But we do have an important clue - the infected person must have caught it in late Winter, and travelled to Spain in spring. That implies that coronavirus was active somewhere last year in the Winter.

Was it in China?
Well, here is an article
- and the author explains tha tthe 2018-2019 flu season has a surprizingly low number of deaths because basically, they just do not count them. But the article does have the case numbers. So some more digging and....

Gee, it's kinda DIFFERENT to Barcelona, isn't it?


Edit:
This raises ANOTHER pile of questions.
It was in China one year before they detected it, it seems, and infected people were evidently going to Europe with it.
Why did this outbreak not occur sooner? Why did it disappear in China, and then return in Dec-2019-Jan-2020? Was this really Covid, because this is not how it's behaving now.
 
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It seems very unlikely that a virus this infectious would appear in Spain, go underground for a YEAR, travel round the world, and then pop up in Wuhan. Where could it be coming from?


The sample only yielded a positive test for ONE week.
The result could be consistent with a small group or single traveller, not in an infectious phase but still excreting faecal virus. Nobody would get the respiratory illness, but the test would find it. That implies that Sars Cov 2 is not native to Barcelona. Did the traveller/s leave? Did the virus stop being passed? We cannot tell, nor can we detemine the source of the illness. But we do have an important clue - the infected person must have caught it in late Winter, and travelled to Spain in spring. That implies that coronavirus was active somewhere last year in the Winter.
Such an anomalous result is also consistent with a mislabeled or contaminated sample, or some other procedural error. Certainly an interesting possibility, but it will take more than a single pre-review study to convince me that SARS-CoV-2 was in Spain fifteen months ago.
 
Such an anomalous result is also consistent with a mislabeled or contaminated sample, or some other procedural error. Certainly an interesting possibility, but it will take more than a single pre-review study to convince me that SARS-CoV-2 was in Spain fifteen months ago.
Indeed.
If the hypothesis is correct, surely Chinese carriers went to other places. We ought to be able to turn up evidence of the virus from samples in other locales at the least. Moreover, how come only one weekly sample was positive? Nobody with the virus travelled on ANY other week?
An error seems the most likely conclusion, but I had some fun building a hypothetical case.
 
Certainly everybody in Europe would likely know this already. Here is the "safe" countries list:
Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay.

The UK has a special dispensation to permit travel within the EU bloc for now. Interestingly, no Caribbean nations are listed despite having better numbers than the ones on the list. Why is that? Well, reciprocity. If we do not permit EU denizens entry, treatment is likewise.
I wouldn't get hopes up for travel getting started anytime soon along those routes. Our border lockdown is likely going to stand for some time, until the "safe" countries get their cases to zero. 😷
 
Certainly everybody in Europe would likely know this already. Here is the "safe" countries list:
Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay.

The UK has a special dispensation to permit travel within the EU bloc for now. Interestingly, no Caribbean nations are listed despite having better numbers than the ones on the list. Why is that? Well, reciprocity. If we do not permit EU denizens entry, treatment is likewise.
I wouldn't get hopes up for travel getting started anytime soon along those routes. Our border lockdown is likely going to stand for some time, until the "safe" countries get their cases to zero. 😷
The French West Indies should be open, as they are in the EU. I guess that's the place to go, for Euros that need a Caribbean fix?
 
I wouldn't get hopes up for travel getting started anytime soon along those routes. Our border lockdown is likely going to stand for some time, until the "safe" countries get their cases to zero.
Well, Scotland has had no deaths for 3 days , so the Scotland - T&T air-corridor could be happening soon. Don't worry - we won't let the hoards from infested England board the planes - honest ;)
 
It's interesting that talk is arising over the Second Wave of the pandemic arriving. We never really stopped the first wave though?

:D S
In the US, there are several states that are going to have a distinct second wave, but many more where the first wave just hit a bit later, and where mitigations were much softer, who will just have a harsh and protracted first-wave.
 
In the US, there are several states that are going to have a distinct second wave, but many more where the first wave just hit a bit later, and where mitigations were much softer, who will just have a harsh and protracted first-wave.
I think we talk mainly of New York and New Jersey if we talk about a resurgence. Everywhere else is just getting into the first wave now. Feels like a setup for some sort of young adult post-apocalyptic sci-fi. One of my old friends in the US who works at a hospital talks about how everything seem normal, except at work, where everything looks like the end of the world...

:D S
 
Is there something inherently unsafe about Far Eastern / Chinese farming methods that facilitates these zoonotic infections?

In addition to the BBC News item I posted last night, the Guardian covers the same story about this new Swine Flu:

 
Is there something inherently unsafe about Far Eastern / Chinese farming methods that facilitates these zoonotic infections?

In addition to the BBC News item I posted last night, the Guardian covers the same story about this new Swine Flu:

And I think a Swine Flu came from Mexico, BSE from the UK. Basically Meat is Murder, but not the murder you thought they meant :)
 
Is there something inherently unsafe about Far Eastern / Chinese farming methods that facilitates these zoonotic infections?
Domestic and captured wild animals in close proximity to each other and to humans.
The large population in the area does of course make it statistically more probable, as well.
 
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