General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Morbad]

95% of our country is doing an awesome job

No they aren't.

when the rate of positive test results rises at a slower rate than overall testing, that's a good thing

But that's not what's happening, nor what the linked graph indicates.

That blue line on the unedited graph is actually showing what your arrows are supposedly showing (why are those arrows there again?), and it shows an increasing trend of positive tests, relative to total number of tests, which is especially disturbing as the scope of testing (e.g. more than just critical workers and symptomatic individuals) broadens.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

(soon we'll be testing over 1 million per day)

It is currently averaging > 8 days to get the results.
That makes contact tracing impossible.

The practical value of that is unfortunately zero.

This isn't fixing the problem, it is taking a selfie. Unless the behaviour is adapted before the infected transmit it, it will remain in uncontrolled exponential expansion. That is no longer possible to do by conventional public health methods because the numbers are too big. How to track down contacts for thousands and thousands?

Testing does not "create cases" of course, but it does illuminate them. Viral transmission between people is how that happens, as we all know. At this point, with 77,000 cases per day found, we can estimate 0.7 to 0.8 million infected based on the 10:1 CDC estimate. Per day.

If that accelerating rate is not frozen, your entire population will be infected in weeks, and the disease will become endemic.

This is "awesome" performance for blind quadriplegics, but really no one else. We have awesome performance: scaled up to 330 million pop., our total case count would be around 39 000, for the whole epidemic. (Total dead would be 2400.)
And all of those were cases we imported into quarantines. I believe you roughly doubled that, today, within the community and cannot track the contacts.

Turkey is the only country AFAIK that will still accept Americans. In case anybody wants to bug out. They have few things open there, but prison visits are now permitted I hear. Not on my bucket list.

I'm afraid we can't allow anyone past our borders for now.

 

[Synkreto]

Its good to put stuff in perspective .

New Zealand : 1.470,7 tests per confirmed case .
USA : 11,77 tests per confirmed case .
- July 15th

New Zealand : 90,46 tests per 1.000 people
USA : 128,46 tests per 1.000 people
- July 15th

New Zealand : 0,1 % test positive rate
USA : 8,5% test positive rate
- July 15th

Great page to look stuff up/research:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing

Here we show the share of reported tests returning a positive result – known as the positive rate.

ourworldindata.org

I will make this bold statement :

New Zealand has A LOT less people infected with SARS - CoV -2 than the US .


Germany has not really done stellar in terms of dealing with SARS - CoV -2 ( compared to other countries ), but considering location, population density, very strict legal frameworks/requirements making many things others were able to do literally impossible...Germany did pretty well . This is what a good repsonse looks like :

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-02-01..&country=~DEU

( 5 weeks to break its back . Starting before the situation went out of control )

It does not look like this :

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-deaths?time=2020-02-01..&country=~USA

( The Situation is out of control . )


Btw, nice writeup by the head of RKI, Prof. Wieler :

Emerging COVID-19 success story: Germany's push to maintain progress

Germany is one country which has responded well to the Coronavirus pandemic. How did they do so? In-country experts provide key insights.

ourworldindata.org

.

 

[Morbad]

It is currently averaging > 8 days to get the results.
That makes contact tracing impossible.

The practical value of that is unfortunately zero.

This isn't fixing the problem, it is taking a selfie. Unless the behaviour is adapted before the infected transmit it, it will remain in uncontrolled exponential expansion. That is no longer possible to do by conventional public health methods because the numbers are too big. How to track down contacts for thousands and thousands?

Right now testing is mostly used to indicate which areas have transmission more or less under control and what areas do not, as well as identifying problem demographics or specific clusters, so that mitigation policies can be adjusted accordingly. Actual contact tracing will be important for areas that get things under control to keep them under control, but no one expects to be able to perform useful contract tracing in areas where the infection rates are high; to do comprehensive contract tracing in the US now would require nearly 350k personnel devoted to it, which is clearly impossible.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Yeah, it's the same in many places in the USA.

Sad, but if it helps I'm very cool with it - I have a nice mask with the American Flag on it

Yes, the mask is always better than being confined to the house for several weeks.

 

[sewerratuk]

For my part I am not so sensitive to this.

If a catastrophe happens, it will be a redemption for the humanity.

At least let’s hope so.

As to which side of the barrier each human will find himself, and well to each his reward.

I’m with you on this, there are a some people in this thread getting overheated about the world population reducing due to the virus, that were in another popular thread in this sub forum prior to this one, lamenting on how things needs to change if the world is to go on

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

CDC data has now gone bye bye.

You don't hide the report card from Mummy when you do well at school.

As data is now restricted from the people on the ground, expect planning to worsen, and deaths to directly increase.


Since it's apparently wrong to care about people dying, I'll just read the paper with a nice cuppa. No doubt the world economy will improve as all those jobs in refrigerated trucking and gravedigging open up. Global pandemics and mass death- we should just take it in stride. It's not a Big Deal. Just ask someone who knows, like Chuck Woolery. No problem is real till it affects me personally.

Now, where are those ginger biscuits?!

 

[Demascus]

Since it's apparently wrong to care about people dying, I'll just read the paper with a nice cuppa. No doubt the world economy will improve as all those jobs in refrigerated trucking and gravedigging open up. Global pandemics and mass death- we should just take it in stride. It's not a Big Deal. Just ask someone who knows, like Chuck Woolery. No problem is real till it affects me personally.

See, the grass is greener!

 

[Synkreto]

I’m with you on this, there are a some people in this thread getting overheated about the world population reducing due to the virus, that were in another popular thread in this sub forum prior to this one, lamenting on how things needs to change if the world is to go on

Some interesting stuff re "if the world is to go on" can be looked at here :

Home - Global Footprint Network

Global Footprint Network is a research organization that is changing how the world manages its natural resources and responds to climate change.

www.footprintnetwork.org

The solution does not necessarily need to be "X amount of people need to die so that we can go on living our normal as we please." Seems to me a good place to start is to work at how we can stop using up our years budget by end 3d week of August .

 

[sewerratuk]

The bottom line is the planet is overcrowded and it’s getting worse. Nature will try and find a way to rebalance itself
All that would happen if everyone reduced overconsumption is the planet will become even more overcrowded and it still wouldn’t be able to handle it.

 

[Synkreto]

The bottom line is the planet is overcrowded and it’s getting worse. Nature will try and find a way to rebalance itself
All that would happen if everyone reduced overconsumption is the planet will become even more overcrowded and it still wouldn’t be able to handle it.

Your first sentence is an opinion . Looking at various, differing data sources, one can just as easily get to the conclusion that too few use/gobble up too much - resources, living space, energy, wealth, you name it . Your second sentence simply enforces what I wrote above, albeit in other words .

People need to understand that various global Problems are not, in the first place, driven by number of humans alive . They are driven by, simply put, what those humans do, and how they live .

 

[sewerratuk]

It’s a great ideology but I can’t see it happening in my lifetime without a big push from something beyond our control

 

[Synkreto]

It’s a great ideology but I can’t see it happening in my lifetime without a big push from something beyond our control

As with so many things, communicable diseases or even Pandemics for instance...a lot of what happens on the Big Stage comes down to what individual actors do . So, in fact, the push can start at a place where one can exert at least some measure of "control" .

 

[Patrick_68000]

The bottom line is the planet is overcrowded and it’s getting worse. Nature will try and find a way to rebalance itself
All that would happen if everyone reduced overconsumption is the planet will become even more overcrowded and it still wouldn’t be able to handle it.

According to a new study (In the review "The Lancet"), the Earth will have about 8.8 billion inhabitants by 2100.

They are two billion fewer people than the UN predictions.

Better than nothing ...

 

[metatheurgist]

The bottom line is the planet is overcrowded and it’s getting worse. Nature will try and find a way to rebalance itself
All that would happen if everyone reduced overconsumption is the planet will become even more overcrowded and it still wouldn’t be able to handle it.

Read this last week but since it wasn't directly related I didn't post it.

World population growth is expected to nearly stop by 2100

For the first time in modern history, the world’s population is expected to virtually stop growing by the end of this century.

www.pewresearch.org

Solar flow battery breakthrough combines PV generation and storage in one device

Australian researchers contribute to US-led research breakthrough on ultra-efficient way to generate, store and re-deliver renewable electricity from the sun in one device.

reneweconomy.com.au

So, it looks like if we can hang tough for one lifetime, stuff will get better. And, morbidly, pandemics are going to help. For the first time I actually see that people might make it as long as we survive to get to that point. Of course, this is going to do terrible things for the economic fantasy of infinite growth.

 

[ZeroAi]

It is currently averaging > 8 days to get the results.

Where are you getting that number?

It does not match up with what I am seeing in the real world, and it's in stark contrast to what the CDC officially states on their website (between 1 hour and 2 days):

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

This data is reported daily to the government.

If that accelerating rate is not frozen, your entire population will be infected in weeks, and the disease will become endemic.

I respect your opinion, but it doesn't seem even remotely plausible to me.

First, the small areas with the outbreaks are (for the most) part being caused by young people not following social distancing guidelines.

Adults, workplaces, and homes for the elderly are all taking this seriously.

So I find it hard to believe all these little hot spots are going to spread into a country wide epidemic.

But all we have to do is wait three weeks and we'll see who's right - I have no issue waiting.

Up here in the Northeast of the USA we're doing very well.

We recently had an outbreak of 19 cases in NH which was quickly traced to a baseball team that had come up to take part in a competition.

So contact tracing does work in most places, because most places have extremely low case numbers.

This is "awesome" performance for blind quadriplegics, but really no one else.

We are testing more people a day than any other large country (any of the largest 8 countries)

We are exporting more ventilators and other equipment than any other free country.

The majority of the country has met the challenge, and will continue to do so.

I'm afraid we can't allow anyone past our borders for now.

The majority of Americans could care less if they can travel overseas right now.

Hopefully we can continue to stop people from coming into the country until we snuff Covid out.

o7

 

[Patrick_68000]

I like this statement by Antonio Guterres Secretary General of the United Nations.

"We were brought to our knees by a microscopic virus. The pandemic demonstrated the fragility of our world."

So true and a great lesson for all the arrogant people on the planet.

 

[Patrick_68000]

How many will be living in the belt and on Mars?

Not me.

 

[Para Handy]

Where are you getting that number?

It does not match up with what I am seeing in the real world, and it's in stark contrast to what the CDC officially states on their website (between 1 hour and 2 days):
......
This data is reported daily to the government.
.......

'The virus doesn't care about excuses': US faces terrifying autumn as Covid-19 surges

The breathing space afforded by lockdowns in the spring has been squandered, with new cases running at five times the rate of the whole of Europe. Things will only get worse, experts warn

www.theguardian.com

"But in America, the large laboratories that process Covid-19 tests are unable to keep up with demand. Quest Diagnostics announced on Tuesday that its average turnaround time for test results was a minimum of seven days for most patients. "


BTW - you quote the CDC figures but:

White House Freezes CDC Out Of Covid Data Reporting, May Ask States To Use National Guard To Help

The administration has tweaked its data reporting guidelines, effectively freezing out the CDC.

www.forbes.com

White House reportedly orders hospitals to bypass CDC during COVID-19 data collection

The Trump admin may be trying to cut out health officials.

www.theverge.com

Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data (Published 2020)

Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.

www.nytimes.com

Trump administration tells hospitals they should NOT send data to CDC

The HHS has set up a new system to gather data from hospitals and told them they should no longer report COVID-19 information to the CDC in a move experts worry will impair transparency.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Trump administration orders hospitals to bypass CDC in reporting COVID data

The White House Coronavirus Task Force is instructing hospitals to submit COVID data to the Health and Human Services Department instead, prompting concerns about transparency.

www.cbsnews.com

.. so the national administration is filtering / bypassing / controlling data flow to CDC.

 

[Gortron]

I'm sure someone else must have already brought this up? I've thought for a long time the UK figures are too high. Look back and you'll see I've said I think they are being over reported before. The UK is doing a really crap job of managing this pandemic; mostly because we have an extremely incompetent bunch of (insert insult here).... running the show, that think we are better than everyone else. I'm not defending the government, they are near useless. However, the problem also is we have quangos that are even more useless than the government. They are so busy covering there own backsides they have lost any form of common sense.

Thus I present what I suspected for a long time... https://www.theguardian.com/society...covid-19-deaths-paused-amid-accuracy-concerns

Why this is happening I don't know, but I'm sure it will come out in the inquest about the epic disaster that is the UK governments handling of the pandemic.

My mum said to me the other day that she gets annoyed with people attacking the government because they are 'doing their best'. I said to her, 'They might be, but it isn't good enough'.