General / Off-Topic The safest place

[Stigbob]

BBC has a positive story about the effect of this crisis on consumer patterns:

Has coronavirus made us more ethical consumers?

Studies show shoppers on both sides of the Atlantic are more ethically and environmentally minded.

www.bbc.com

Would you say there's a difference in our own households?

I think it's made a difference in the local community.

There's a small local grocery shop popped up where everyone used to use the big supermarkets, run by a laid off teaching assistant selling locally grown produce and the most marvellous bacon in the universe sold prior to being adulterated in a factory. Which has become a bit of a (socially distanced) local hub and gossip centre. It's now got a book and plant exchange as well (I'm dubious about the books myself don't know who's been licking them).

The local pubs doing business in takeout food, lots of the same faces turning up to collect and everyone thinks they need our support. Pie night has become almost impossible to get a collection booking time anything less than a week in advance on a Wednesday which is usually the graveyard shift in pub terms.

When we were in isolation the village hall went shopping for us, so I've signed up as a volunteer to deliver prescriptions for the vulnerable as I feel I have to give something back.

It's come together in a fairly marked change from how we usually are.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Again, it's getting drowned out by other events, but US data has over 3800 dead today, and a grim total mounting easily to cross 400,000 dead by the end of this week. At 220,000 per day new cases, we are not going to see this decline anytime soon. Here's the data:
total cases-todays cases- total deaths-todays deaths

23,600,451

+220,400

393,631

+3,801

The thing we should be doing is trying to stop this from worsening.

Having hundreds of troops camping within the Capitol is a nightmare situation for them, regarding the infection. Somehow, it's doubtful they are thinking of that a whole lot. What happens if the National Guard gets taken out of service by an epidemic of contagious illness this next few days?

3 Members of Congress are positive so far.

There still isn't any coordinated effort to sequence variants within the country, and zero interest in trying to suppress a 501 mutant outbreak.
This is a gigantic oversight, and it is multiple orders of magnitude bigger as a threat to life than anything else. There's no press coverage, no indication that leadership even acknowledges the issue. No plan.

Distractions couldn't be worse timed.

Update:
By midnight: US data.

Wednesday 4,098 dead - 236,462 new cases.
Tuesday 4,491 dead - 230,098 new cases.

According to Worldmeters, more than 1500 dead for the United Kingdom yesterday In other countries it is not better.

And now we learn that the South African and Brazilian variants have the potential to be resistant to antibodies.

COVID Live Update: 141,994,885 Cases and 3,032,671 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Patrick_68000]

Situation Normal.

Yes, people get used to everything

 

[Factabulous]

UK Report saying 'protection' rate from covid infection similar to a vaccination

Recovering from Covid gives similar level of protection to vaccine

PHE found immunity from earlier infection provided 83% protection against reinfection for at least 20 weeks

www.theguardian.com

They only have 5 months data, and there are re-infections. They didn't check that these were not recurrences of the original infection, so that is possible. Some commentators were adding today that other studies in Brazil have found similar studies, but in that case they found at least one person who died from the re-infection (the UK study believes the re-infections were less severe, so maybe a sample size issue).

Looking more and more like any vaccine will be a regular thing rather than a one-off - which is not surprising given other Corona viruses like the flu. ofc the advantage of a vaccine over infection is they you won't die. Though you may grow a 5G mast out of your head, or something.

 

[Patrick_68000]

UK Report saying 'protection' rate from covid infection similar to a vaccination

Recovering from Covid gives similar level of protection to vaccine

PHE found immunity from earlier infection provided 83% protection against reinfection for at least 20 weeks

www.theguardian.com

They only have 5 months data, and there are re-infections. They didn't check that these were not recurrences of the original infection, so that is possible. Some commentators were adding today that other studies in Brazil have found similar studies, but in that case they found at least one person who died from the re-infection (the UK study believes the re-infections were less severe, so maybe a sample size issue).

Looking more and more like any vaccine will be a regular thing rather than a one-off - which is not surprising given other Corona viruses like the flu. ofc the advantage of a vaccine over infection is they you won't die. Though you may grow a 5G mast out of your head, or something.

If the virus ultimately becomes like a seasonal flu, not many people will be vaccinated each year.

 

[Factabulous]

If the virus ultimately becomes like a seasonal flu, not many people will be vaccinated each year.

Doesn't it depend on how much it affects people? It is judged that the risk from flu is not enough to vaccinate everyone - and I could see us offering yearly vaccinations covering flu + covid to the elderly. In the UK the flu vaccine is offered over 50, similar to where covid is more problematic.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Doesn't it depend on how much it affects people? It is judged that the risk from flu is not enough to vaccinate everyone - and I could see us offering yearly vaccinations covering flu + covid to the elderly. In the UK the flu vaccine is offered over 50, similar to where covid is more problematic.

In France for the 2019-2020 season, only 45% of people over 65 and people at-risk had been vaccinated, including just over half of those over 65 (52%), and less than one-third of those under 65 with a long-term illness (31%).

A Covid + Flu vaccine cocktail is an interesting idea. It could significantly increase the mortality

 

[Ralph Vargr]

Covid-19 infection grants immunity for five months, UK study suggests

People who have been infected with Covid-19 are likely to be protected against catching it again for at least five months, according to a new study led by Public Health England (PHE).

www.cnn.com

 

[Patrick_68000]

Covid-19 infection grants immunity for five months, UK study suggests

People who have been infected with Covid-19 are likely to be protected against catching it again for at least five months, according to a new study led by Public Health England (PHE).

www.cnn.com

5 months is not much.

 

[Factabulous]

5 months is not much.

At least 5 months. The story was only for 5 months .. so far.

 

[Patrick_68000]

At least 5 months. The story was only for 5 months .. so far.

Yes, lack of hindsight.

 

[Patrick_68000]

We just passed the 2 million dead.

 

[metatheurgist]

We just passed the 2 million dead.

View attachment 204292

It's just a mild flu, stop panicking.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Mutant 501 doing its thing.

Geneva, Switzerland:

The coronavirus mutation first found in Britain has now spread to 50 territories, according to the World Health Organization, while a similar South African-identified strain has now been found in 20.

The UN body also noted a third new coronavirus "variant of concern" found in Japan may impact upon immune response and needs further investigation.

The Japanese report was on a Brazilian group of travellers.

Hospitals in the Brazilian city of Manaus have reached breaking point while treating Covid-19 patients, amid reports of severe oxygen shortages and desperate staff.
The city, in Amazonas state, has seen a surge of deaths and infections.
Health professionals, quoted by local media, warned "many people" could die due to lack of supplies and assistance.

Amazonas state is the locus of the Brazilian version of the 501 mutant found in Japan, as far as was reported yesterday, but this quote below leads to some confusion:

The WHO said researchers in Brazil had additionally reported the emergence of a similar variant, which had likely evolved independently of the variant detected in Japan

UK Covid Strain Now In 50 Countries, South African Variant In 20: WHO

The coronavirus mutation first found in Britain has now spread to 50 territories, according to the World Health Organization, while a similar South African-identified strain has now been found in 20.

www.ndtv.com

That seems to suggest that there are TWO different Brazilian 501 mutants.
That means they are well and truly in a jam. Amazonas can't produce the oxygen needed now.

Hope you folks are tracking this with the usual interest and will update us here. I'm pressed for time these days with non Covid work and can't research.

Edit: eh, who needs sleep.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Spoiler: Clipping from virology journal

Convergent mutations shared between P1, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 lineages

Spoiler: Clipping from virology journal

The newly described P.1. lineage from Manaus and the B.1.1.7 first described in the United Kingdom (Rambaut et al. 2020 16; https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.1.7.html 15) share the spike N501Y mutation and a deletion in ORF1b (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF).

The P.1. lineage and the B.1.351 (also known as 501Y.V2) lineage described in South Africa (Tegally et al. 2020 4; https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.351.html 21) share three mutation positions in common in the spike protein (K417N/T, E484K, N501Y). Both the P.1 and the B.1.351 lineage also has the orf1b deletion del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF).

The set of mutations/deletions shared between P.1, B.1.1.7, and the B.1.351 lineages appear to have arisen entirely independently. Further, both mutations shared between P1 and B.1.351 seem to be associated with a rapid increase in cases in locations where previous attack rates are thought to be very high. Therefore it is essential to rapidly investigate whether there is an increased rate of re-infection in previously exposed individuals.

From https://virological.org/t/genomic-c...-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586

Some details about the 3 new variants. sources- Kent, UK. & Amazonas, Brazil & South Africa. Names of variants keep changing. What's really going on? Looks like pointless variants keep happening until 501 changes. Then it changes infectivity, and becomes a dominant variant. The others are somewhat less important, imagine them as passengers, with 501 driving that bus.

The press reports a case of reinfection with the P.1 variant from Brazil. Disease was worse second time.

Cannot find any other suggestions of "2" main new variants out of Amazonas in Brazil, likely a lay press misunderstanding of the story. Still trying to catch up.

Our repatriation flights are on hold here in Trinidad. Nobody goes in or out now.

Won't lie, considering the little I know of the molecular characteristics of S protein variants. I am amazed that a 501 mutant variant has not simultaneously already appeared in the biggest human reservoir of disease and misinformation in the world, but just looking at the rising death toll and infection rates in the USA, it has probably simply gone undetected. In any case, the B.1.1.7 variant is having community spread there.
Epidemiological guessing is our only recourse till a sequencing programme gets started up. New management might do it, data could take 3-4 months to arrive.

Humanity has never before been able to realtime sequence variants as a pandemic grows. It is quite a feat. The UK is the very first country to likely save lives with it, which is medical history making.

 

[Patrick_68000]

It's just a mild flu, stop panicking.

Not even a flu, just a cold.

 

[Ralph Vargr]

Some hope for the US Thursday night. Attention is now being paid to helping vaccine distribution after 20 JAN 2021. The next 90 days will show if it works.

St. Louis weather is proving itself wackier than ever. Large numbers of Canadian geese were heard in my area today, and snow is forecast for tomorrow.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Some hope for the US Thursday night. Attention is now being paid to helping vaccine distribution after 20 JAN 2021. The next 90 days will show if it works.

St. Louis weather is proving itself wackier than ever. Large numbers of Canadian geese were heard in my area today, and snow is forecast for tomorrow.

But the main problem at the global level remains the production capacity, no doubt.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Oxygen shortage in Amazon city forces mass patient transfer

SAO PAULO (AP) — Dozens of COVID-19 patients in the Amazon rainforest's biggest city will be flown out of state as the local health system collapses, authorities announced Thursday as dwindling stocks of oxygen tanks meant some people were starting to die breathless at home.

apnews.com

Manaus is the nightmare we were talking about at the beginning of this.

...as the local health system collapses, authorities announced Thursday as dwindling stocks of oxygen tanks meant some people were starting to die breathless at home.

Doctors in Manaus, a city of 2 million people, were choosing which patients to treat, and at least one of the city’s cemeteries asked mourners to line up to enter and bury their dead. Patients in overloaded hospitals waited in despair throughout the day as oxygen cylinders arrived to save some, but came too late for others.

As we suggested:

A positive COVID-19 test doesn’t reveal which variant of the virus the patient has, but it is likely that the new strain has been partially responsible for driving Manaus’ second wave, according to Pedro Hallal, an epidemiologist

Epidemiology is weak proof, we require statistically significant positive sequences in a representatative sample size to really say so. But it's most likely true.

 

[Factabulous]

Manaus is the nightmare we were talking about at the beginning of this.

I'm not sure even that paints the full horror, this report sounds even worse:

Covid eruption in Brazil's largest state leaves health workers begging for help

Governor of Amazonas says situation critical as alarming details emerge about breakdown of health system in state capital Manaus

www.theguardian.com

“There is no [oxygen],” added Orellana, who has been calling for a local lockdown since September. “Colleagues of ours – nurses, doctors and even social workers – are being called in to perform manual ventilation on people. A single human being is only capable of performing manual ventilation for about 20 minutes, so if you want to save one life without oxygen you are going to need at least three or four people per patient.”