In the UK we have a lull, but I can see that is going to rise again. In about 10 to 15 days, we may see the highest peek ever; but at the same time, if everything goes to plan; it could be that last.
General / Off-Topic The safest place
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Health service over here have reported long covid cases with recurring problems with breathing, chest pains, added diabetes and others for a while now. Not so much new, 2nd infections and, along with trauma, mental heath issues and others, we're looking at losing 15% of our health staff, from chair of BMA here but somehow we're getting though it. 1,104 have quit as well apparently...our biggest problem is staff and we already have 4th year students and teachers in now...as well as non-urgent ops cancelled and theatres diverted, private hospital helping. Not much more we can do.
The tighter controls for traveling should help regards new things, which will be plenty..
One thing seems apparent is that the higher numbers aren't transfering as much to the worst cases, maybe because younger...still deaths were rising and monday's are usually under reported.
Our rolling average for cases has dropped by half in a week but needs to come some.
Double post, sorry.
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True enough, but you're starting to see the effects of the lockdown kicking in.
What happened over here was a bit different, we were at 100% occupancy at the start of dec, lockdown till 14th(stayed the same, new variant suspected), xmas shopping(silly), 1 day xmas(silly) and lockdown since then big spike, spike, big spike and the virus no longer confined to hospitals and care homes...some counties joined the 1:1000 club. NY's and BH idiots kept the numbers up.
Yet, as a country, we're starting to come out the other side although our health service is in tatters and probably will be for a while..
I dunno where the rest of the UK is but it seems we're maybe a week or so ahead.
All I'm saying is that we all keep it together, it'll only help. We have to ride it out for now because what was done cannot be changed..
Worst week for nhs incoming here...
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Surveillance of articles on the 452r variant:
First described in Denmark.
Cases in California have no history of travel.
Involved in Christmas Day outbreak at Kaiser Permanente clinic in San Jose. Ca.
Checked with the predictive molecular modelling and found this:
Oh
. That is not good. That's a positive stability change that binds to our receptor. Therefore, MORE infective, by computer modelling.
Is there any evidence of that in real life though?
Ok. Bad enough. But how about lethality?
Ok, still killing people, but no real indication of increased trouble.
Will vaccines cover it?
We don't know yet.
Best guess:
Based on prior success with the same modelling software, the 501 series of mutants performed as predicted. So likely the forecast for the 452 mutant will also be correct. This is probably going to be at least as bad as 501, maybe worse, as it is rated as the MOST free energy changed mutant, so the spike protein is going to be toughened and reinforced, and will not snap off like lesser ones.
More working spikes per virion = higher binding potential = bigger R0.
Also means more places for antibodies to gum it up. I feel that the vaccine will still work fine. That has about zero value as comfort as IANAVirologist.
First described in Denmark.
Cases in California have no history of travel.
Involved in Christmas Day outbreak at Kaiser Permanente clinic in San Jose. Ca.
Checked with the predictive molecular modelling and found this:
Oh
. That is not good. That's a positive stability change that binds to our receptor. Therefore, MORE infective, by computer modelling.Is there any evidence of that in real life though?
Ok. Bad enough. But how about lethality?
.
Ok, still killing people, but no real indication of increased trouble.
Will vaccines cover it?
We don't know yet.
Best guess:
Based on prior success with the same modelling software, the 501 series of mutants performed as predicted. So likely the forecast for the 452 mutant will also be correct. This is probably going to be at least as bad as 501, maybe worse, as it is rated as the MOST free energy changed mutant, so the spike protein is going to be toughened and reinforced, and will not snap off like lesser ones.
More working spikes per virion = higher binding potential = bigger R0.
Also means more places for antibodies to gum it up. I feel that the vaccine will still work fine. That has about zero value as comfort as IANAVirologist.
Reports from UK of increased hospitalisation & death rates after hospitalisation with covid:
www.theguardian.com
They're looking at issues with long-covid, rather than re-infection with covid as I initially thought.
Almost 30% of Covid patients in England readmitted to hospital after discharge – study
Readmission rate for Covid patients 3.5 times greater, and death rate seven times higher, than for other hospital patients
www.theguardian.com
They're looking at issues with long-covid, rather than re-infection with covid as I initially thought.
1,610 deaths from Covid-19 in 24 hours in the United Kingdom 
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Shame !
Italy Lombardy highlights its wealth to obtain more vaccines.
The authorities of the Lombardy region -industrial lung of Italy- provoked an outcry on Tuesday, January 19 in the country, proposing the idea of distributing doses of anti-Covid-19 vaccines according to the wealth produced by a territory.
"In Italy, the health is a fundamental public good, guaranteed by the Constitution, not a privilege for those who have more", immediately ruled the Italian Minister of Health.
Italy Lombardy highlights its wealth to obtain more vaccines.
The authorities of the Lombardy region -industrial lung of Italy- provoked an outcry on Tuesday, January 19 in the country, proposing the idea of distributing doses of anti-Covid-19 vaccines according to the wealth produced by a territory.
"In Italy, the health is a fundamental public good, guaranteed by the Constitution, not a privilege for those who have more", immediately ruled the Italian Minister of Health.
Shame !
Italy Lombardy highlights its wealth to obtain more vaccines.
The authorities of the Lombardy region -industrial lung of Italy- provoked an outcry on Tuesday, January 19 in the country, proposing the idea of distributing doses of anti-Covid-19 vaccines according to the wealth produced by a territory.
"In Italy, the health is a fundamental public good, guaranteed by the Constitution, not a privilege for those who have more", immediately ruled the Italian Minister of Health.
That is obscene.
Not your typical reliable source, but if this is true it's bad:
www.dailymail.co.uk
Covid survivors 'may still be vulnerable to South African variant'
Professor Penny Moore, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa, found in 44 survivors that 48 per cent of them (21) had no immune response to the new variant.
Not your typical reliable source, but if this is true it's bad:
Covid survivors 'may still be vulnerable to South African variant'
Professor Penny Moore, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa, found in 44 survivors that 48 per cent of them (21) had no immune response to the new variant.
Prof. Moore is a world expert on viral escape mechanism & vaccines.
President Trump has rescinded travel restrictions on South Africa as one of his final acts. Not joking.
France advises against fabric face masks due to new Covid variants
With new, more contagious variants of coronavirus circling health officials in France have issued updated advice warning against the wearing of fabric masks. Here is the latest guidance.
www.thelocal.fr
France wants citizens to upgrade protection. New variant risks.
Avoiding people completely is still 100% effective.
That region has the most people and 'has' administered the most vaccines. But only about 20% more, than the other top 5 places in France.Shame !
Italy Lombardy highlights its wealth to obtain more vaccines.
The authorities of the Lombardy region -industrial lung of Italy- provoked an outcry on Tuesday, January 19 in the country, proposing the idea of distributing doses of anti-Covid-19 vaccines according to the wealth produced by a territory.
"In Italy, the health is a fundamental public good, guaranteed by the Constitution, not a privilege for those who have more", immediately ruled the Italian Minister of Health.
That 'is' the definition of a non-reliable source.Not your typical reliable source, but if this is true it's bad:
Covid survivors 'may still be vulnerable to South African variant'
Professor Penny Moore, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa, found in 44 survivors that 48 per cent of them (21) had no immune response to the new variant.
I think he did, everywhere. Well, not sure about those places he banned.
It includes weekend numbers, which is why no-one trumpets low death rates on Saturday and Sunday
That is dubious at best. Any figures that are not correlated, from days before. would not be added to the current days numbers. On the grounds, that they would create an inaccurate record of events. Plus doing so, only make things look worse.
Don't forget, we are talking, international league tables here.
Keeping track of the alphanumerology of variants is impossible now. As it keeps changing, current ones become superceded.
www.bbc.com
These sre the ones tracked by us here. You can see there isn't a standard general naming system.
D614G mutation......... identified early on. World dominant change. All others are superimposed on top.
B.1.1.7 ............ found in Kent, U.K.
501.V2............. found in Cape Town, S.A.
B.1.1.248.......... found in Japan, in Brazillian travellers.
Those are all collectively variants with position 501 substitution.
Unknown(to me) additional variant reported in Manaus, Brazil
L452r.......... found in Denmark, now western USA, California
Not a 501 family mutant.
How will Covid-19 evolve in the future?
Every time the coronavirus passes from person to person it picks up tiny changes to its genetic code, but scientists are starting to notice patterns in how the virus is mutating.
www.bbc.com
These sre the ones tracked by us here. You can see there isn't a standard general naming system.
D614G mutation......... identified early on. World dominant change. All others are superimposed on top.
B.1.1.7 ............ found in Kent, U.K.
501.V2............. found in Cape Town, S.A.
B.1.1.248.......... found in Japan, in Brazillian travellers.
Those are all collectively variants with position 501 substitution.
Unknown(to me) additional variant reported in Manaus, Brazil
L452r.......... found in Denmark, now western USA, California
Not a 501 family mutant.
Don't worry - we top the charts on the 7 day average as well. So chant together : we're number one! we're number one! we're number one!
As expected since "just let it rip and kill the weak and old, the economy will love it" became globally dominant, the Virus does NOT let up, at all, and is actually gearing up .
If only people would get an Idea of the complexities of a given topic before they base Life and Death decisions concerning entire nations on their thoughts and Ideas .
Source: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1351686170044989442?s=20
If only people would get an Idea of the complexities of a given topic before they base Life and Death decisions concerning entire nations on their thoughts and Ideas .
Source: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1351686170044989442?s=20
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