General / Off-Topic The safest place

[jasonbarron]

I didn't make the claim that the worst is over....

Without expertise in the matter your opinion is no more correct than his, yours being that the worst isn't over.

Personally, I think its going to prove to be the case that the vast majority of every man, woman and child on the planet is going to catch this and be forced to either survive, or not. The rest of the discussion, every single bit of it, is how best to deal with the fallout.

I definitely do my part to keep from spreading anything in the community, but I am under no illusions and have made peace with the fact that if I haven't already caught it (and I'm about 70% sure that I already have), that I will, and further that if/when I do, there will be no special care waiting for me. That's how I've lived my entire life, and whether that's sooner or later it's the way I assume I'll be going out, too.

 

[AkenBosch]

No one (except @Robin of Spiritwood methinks) has credentials here. I'll just have a look at this from time to time.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Keep tuned!

 

[marx]

The worst is over

For the majority of the world, it has barely even started.

In other words: the worst is probably over, for now, but only in a few places in the world, and nowhere else.
Although I wonder if GJ51 meant this as the worst for the markets.

 

[Xenith]

Without expertise in the matter your opinion is no more correct than his, yours being that the worst isn't over.

Personally, I think its going to prove to be the case that the vast majority of every man, woman and child on the planet is going to catch this and be forced to either survive, or not. The rest of the discussion, every single bit of it, is how best to deal with the fallout.

I'm not making claims which run counter to every scientific institution in the world mate, there's your difference. In fact, I don't know what's going to happen, but the evidence suggests that this is only the beginning. Do you have any evidence which suggests otherwise?

 

[Ian Skippy]

Gotta go to work so I'll just say this and be out until later: we need to look at the overall health from the ground up of the various countries. I haven't time to dig up statistics, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say Germans are healthier overall as a population, probably in any way a direct comparison can be made.

I'm quite confident that you are on to something, but I doubt you'll be able to get 'proper' statistics at the moment. Right now WHO is giving some basic relationships between outcome and single variables: for example 'diabetes is a negative factor'. In truth is all but inevitable that there are a host of interacting variables that increase/decrease the prognosis. In order to find those you'll need things like principle component analysis, factor analysis, multiple regression analysis and so on. To do that you'll need:

1) A dataset with the samples obtained via (approximately) random sampling.
2) A dataset which all contain the same variables, measured in the same way. The number of variables ideally included is staggering.

We have neither for the foreseeable future. What we'll have is a collection of guesses, case studies, best practices and such.

 

[Ian Skippy]

Folks...

Calm down. Have a cup of tea. Take a walk (within local distancing limits).

Cut the sniping, or we'll end up with this in lockdown too.

A walk you say, eh?

 

[Synkreto]

Dr. Campbell's first Video of the day :

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6JrkLvsKtw


Also, New York needs help, pretty urgently . Like, ALL the help they can be given ( well, in fact, they know pretty precisely what they need ) . Have a peek at Gvn. Cuomo's just finished press conference for details .

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2khIjJuLHI


Just to be clear : That is a US Governor, and he makes it pretty clear that to him, EVERY Life is a life to be fought for, and that he is NOT willing to sacrifice human life for economical concerns . You are USAmerican ? Listen to this man's pleas .

 

[jasonbarron]

I love how for some of you it's so simple to extricate the decisions that have to be made at these vast, population wide levels. If someone cares about the economy it must mean that they want people to die.

Just dropped in to grab some stuff for work and now I'm on my way back out and instead of giving in to fear and and negativity I'll just leave you guys with a song that i heard this morning that really resonated with me:

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUB8ogvze_8

 

[Good Whiskey]

The new scenario emerging from Canadian government sources, including several MPs involved in planning discussions, is that 80% of the world will become infected and about 3% of us (higher in developing countries, lower in developed ones) will die. A vaccine will be developed and we will all have to take the shot, possibly each year, and that's just how this will go. There are too many sources for this new scenario to site, and most of them are unofficial, so I won't waste time pretending that this is some sort of official prognosis... but it is a convincing picture of how this will play out.

Let's assume the USA returns to business as usual and does not attempt more stringent containment procedures. How is it possible that other countries could stay free of coronavirus? It simply wouldn't be. There is too much travel for it to stay contained in one country that is content to simply have the disease and not really care how many people get infected, because it isn't worth the economic damage from a protracted shutdown to them.

Like, imagine that the virus is eliminated in the UK, but is just another thing you can get in the US at any time. There are just so many problematic equations involved in that. Same with Europe. I mean, if this definitively can't be contained worldwide, we'd simply be better off pouring billions more into a vaccine and gird ourselves for the incoming losses while it is being tested and eventually deployed.

 

[Synkreto]

The new scenario emerging from Canadian government sources, including several MPs involved in planning discussions, is that 80% of the world will become infected and about 3% of us (higher in developing countries, lower in developed ones) will die. A vaccine will be developed and we will all have to take the shot, possibly each year, and that's just how this will go. There are too many sources for this new scenario to site, and most of them are unofficial, so I won't waste time pretending that this is some sort of official prognosis... but it is a convincing picture of how this will play out.

Let's assume the USA returns to business as usual and does not attempt more stringent containment procedures. How is it possible that other countries could stay free of coronavirus? It simply wouldn't be. There is too much travel for it to stay contained in one country that is content to simply have the disease and not really care how many people get infected, because it isn't worth the economic damage from a protracted shutdown to them.

Like, imagine that the virus is eliminated in the UK, but is just another thing you can get in the US at any time. There are just so many problematic equations involved in that. Same with Europe. I mean, if this definitively can't be contained worldwide, we'd simply be better off pouring billions more into a vaccine and gird ourselves for the incoming losses while it is being tested and eventually deployed.

I posted almost the exact same thing a few pages ago...

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures

www.theguardian.com

...look at the Date of the Article...

 

[Paul_Crowther]

Hey all,
We're in unprecedented waters here and understandably there's a lot of concern and uncertainty right now. We're happy for you to have this thread to talk about things as we know everyone wants somewhere they can share their concerns but please, don't use this thread to target one another, spread misinformation or turn this into a political discussion. If you want to do those things there are other sites that are better suited.

If we can all keep this friendly and civil we'll all have a much greater time.

 

[Kloppage Time]

For the majority of the world, it has barely even started.

Africa & India could make Italy's problems look like a walk in the park due to the special social & economic characteristics of these two Third World behemoths.

On the plus side, I always wondered what it was like to live in North Korea!

Can't leave the country, gatherings are banned, shelves are empty etc etc...obvious differences are that their "Dear Leader" TV shows are more entertaining than the BBC's output, we don't have to worship Boris Johnson morning, noon & night & his dead dad isn't head of state!

 

[Good Whiskey]

I posted almost the exact same thing a few pages ago...

It's one of these global human health situations that will probably all come down to vaccination in the end. I get my flu shot every year with my wife and our two kids. Seems like we'll probably be getting 2 shots instead of 1 in 2020/2021, and that's just how it will go down. In countries without the ability to deploy the shot to the poorest of their populations, well, how would that be any different than it is today?

 

[Stigbob]

Africa & India could make Italy's problems look like a walk in the park due to the special social & economic characteristics of these two Third World behemoths.

On the plus side, I always wondered what it was like to live in North Korea!

Can't leave the country, gatherings are banned, shelves are empty etc etc...obvious differences are that their "Dear Leader" TV shows are more entertaining than the BBC's output, we don't have to worship Boris Johnson morning, noon & night & his dead dad isn't head of state!

What we have in the UK is an attempt to save lives via social distancing, that's had to go from advisory to compulsory because of the people who don't/can't understand (or care) how important it is.

Police states don't care about public health.

 

[Synkreto]

It's one of these global human health situations that will probably all come down to vaccination in the end. I get my flu shot every year with my wife and our two kids. Seems like we'll probably be getting 2 shots instead of 1 in 2020/2021, and that's just how it will go down. In countries without the ability to deploy the shot to the poorest of their populations, well, how would that be any different than it is today?

Ummm...enormous_masses_of_people_dead_before_a_Vaccine_became_available_for_widespread_use could be one of the differences between today and then ?

 

[Stigbob]

Ummm...enormous_masses_of_people_dead_before_a_Vaccine_became_available_for_widespread_use could be one of the differences between today and then ?

The point he was making is that the poorest communities of the poorest countries have far higher death rates than that already from other preventable diseases.

There are also additional complications from refusal to vaccinate in some areas.

That could actually be a (small) silver lining to all this the anti-vaxxer movement could implode.

 

[Han_Zen]

This ^^^

There are far more infected people than the official confirmed numbers (only the tested can be officially confirmed). There are probably large unnacounted numbers of people that only develop mild symptoms (or none at all) and will never know they got the virus (but are still carriers).

Indeed. Norwegian numbers are almost exactly as the German when it comes to mortality. Still I know we are not testing as much as we should. We test far more than most, but number of infected are far lower than it should be. The real mortality rate among all infected, when treatment is available may not be higher than 0.05%.

 

[Synkreto]

The point he was making is that the poorest communities of the poorest countries have far higher death rates than that already from other preventable diseases.

There are also additional complications from refusal to vaccinate in some areas.

That could actually be a (small) silver lining to all this the anti-vaxxer movement could implode.

Any doubt that many of these poorest communities would face even_higher_number_of_enrmous_masses_of_people_being_dead due to THIS Virus ?

 

[Stigbob]

Any doubt that many of these poorest communities would face even_higher_number_of_enrmous_masses_of_people_being_dead due to THIS Virus ?

None at all, but they are already living with exactly that anyway and there isn't the infrastructure in place to do anything about it.

Its truly tragic, but that's the reality of it.

 

[Synkreto]

Indeed. Norwegian numbers are almost exactly as the German when it comes to mortality. Still I know we are not testing as much as we should. We test far more than most, but number of infected are far lower than it should be. The real mortality rate among all infected, when treatment is available may not be higher than 0.05%.

The below calculation is wrong, as has been pointed out in following posts .

You are looking at 234 million dead ( if WorldPop = 7.8 Bn ) people if 60% of the world population get infected, and it turns out 0.05% of infected die .

Ofc, every now and then, here and there, HealthCare will have been totally overwhelmed on the way, driving the number of dead people higher . And ofc. these numbers can change depending on whether/when medicinal treatment and/or vaccine become available .

edit: text in bold