The Spanish Flu originated in Kansas... XD . Brace for bills incoming Kansas .
General / Off-Topic The safest place
- Thread starter Robin of Spiritwood
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The Spanish Flu originated in Kansas... XD . Brace for bills incoming Kansas .
According to the models the Norwegian health authorities are using for forcasts, it seem to me that you can use the number of dead(most accurate number we have) to calculate the number of infected.
If Hospitals still have adequate capacity and it’s not very early in the cycle, 2000 is a fair estimate.
In Norway that means 14*2000=28000 infected. Official numbers are 3200.
this is of course a very rough estimate, but it’s far closer than the official reports.
Actually that is debatable.
Some say it originated in a military hospital / stage camp in France (Etaples)
Kansas, USA or China were also proposed, but not really likely.
Or in France(?) via the UK military. But yes, point taken!
Actually, noone is sure where it originated...its just, the first documented case allegedly was reported at a military base in Kansas .
I'm fairly confident your English is much better than my German.
Anyway, I'm not trying to confuse you, I'm just trying to understand what has you convinced that the statistics for flu cases aren't accurate.
Rapid flu tests aren't particularly accurate (a lot of false negatives), but the tests used for the statistical tracking of flu cases are generally quite accurate and adequately representative.
If someone who has tested positive for coronavirus, who has no other pathogens that would cause pneumonia, then dies of pneumonia characteristic of COVID-19, it's a pretty damn safe bet that COVID-19 killed them.
Crude death rate statistics are easy to find. So, I'm not sure why you are finding it difficult to figure out the impact on overall mortality rates, which is as easy as subtracting the COVID-19 fatalities (which are reasonable well documented in most developed nations) from the rest.
UK Chancellor. If you're self employed and have been understating your profits in your tax returns, this could bite.
Sunak said that the 95% of the self-employed would be able to get 80% of their average monthly profits over the last three years up to £2,500 a month under his scheme to help those who have lost work because of coronavirus. The people who are not covered are the self-employed who make more than £50,000 a year. Sunak said people in this group had average incomes of £200,000. He claimed his scheme was very generous by international standards.
Sunak said that the 95% of the self-employed would be able to get 80% of their average monthly profits over the last three years up to £2,500 a month under his scheme to help those who have lost work because of coronavirus. The people who are not covered are the self-employed who make more than £50,000 a year. Sunak said people in this group had average incomes of £200,000. He claimed his scheme was very generous by international standards.
It was first identified in China. How do you know the Chinese are to blame?
America is 23.6 trillion in debt.
Economies collapse globally but investors around the world still want to make it rain. The only currency that appears to be stable right now is the $.
What do you reckon?
I am not convinced the statistics for flu cases aren't accurate . I do know that they base the numbers on rather small sampe sizes and extrapolate . In fact, I have read the rki documents on the 2017/2018 as well as the 2018/2019 flu season in Germany . I am aware of the sentinel and random testing done all through the year to see which are the emerging virusses which will try to kill people come winter . I know that the "flushots" composition is decided somewhen early fall . I know that for Germany in 2017/2018, the one Virus that killed most people...was not actually covered in the "flu shot" administered to the majority of people . I do know that for H3N2 ( one of the 3 covered in the shot ), you were 21% MORE likely to still get infected after the shot...because it had mutated since they composed the shot . I do know that the efficacy of the yearly flu shot was at around 15% for 2017/2018 . All this, I learned from reading RKI documents .
When I wrote what I did, what I meant to say is : they do not get the flu numbers by actually testing ALL the people . As well as, many deaths attributed to the flu are just that...deaths that are attributet to the flu . For Germany in 2017/18, estimated deaths "attributed" to the flu = 25k. As per RKI numbers, deaths actually confirmed to have been "death by flu" = roughly 1.600 .
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China knew about the outbreak in Wuhan and kept it quiet. This lead to the global spread and is why they are to blame.
It is also overwelmingly likely that the virus originated in a nasty Wuhan food market.
Question : do you think it is helpfull at the moment to ask "who pays the bill" ?
No. That’s why I said ‘when this is over’.
I don’t think it to harmfull to air the question on the Frontier forum though. It’s an interesting dilemma, that I don’t have the answer to.
They don't have to, as very high confidence ratios can be attained from a tiny subset, if the sample size is large enough in absolute terms.
This is a more complex issue and vague or uncertain causes of death have long been the bane of accurate statistics. I'm not sure how the RKI does things, but the US CDC has long published guidelines on how to record cause-of-death to minimize these problems. The IDC codes are the same everywhere, as they come from the WHO, but I am sure there are some procedural differences between, and within, various areas. Still, just looking at the statistics one can see there is often a pretty broad uncertainty interval.
Plenty of blame to go around and pinning everything on China just obfuscates everyone else's screw ups. There were multiple chances to halt or radically mitigate the spread outside of China, and most regions missed the opportunity to do so. So far we have what, South Korea, as the only fairly clear cut containment success story?
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I know .
I know . Also, literally any procedure re SARS - CoV -2 and CoViD -19 - from reporting to protocols on how to turn your hospital into a CoViD -19 ICU emergency unit has been detailled by the RKI . Reporting even made it into a legal text
.Truth .
It's a pretty big thread...I must have overlooked this.
Anyway, the details aren't especially relevant. I was just looking for some clarification on your statements, which you've provided. Thanks.
It came out differently than what I actually meant to say . I edited my post, please check it .
Oh man I just wanted to say you're a very lucky guy, the canary islands are among my favorite places in the world... In fact I had a trip to La Palma island planned for may, if it weren't for this damned pandemic.
I truly hope this pandemic, and the economic recession that will follow doesn't ruin your wonderful islands.
Prove it
The Wu-flu
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