General / Off-Topic The SNP is wrong. There has been no material change in circumstances.

Javert

Volunteer Moderator
Seems to me that what Scotland needs is some kind of commitment from the EU that they will be permitted to rejoin very quickly using some kind of fast track process - with that commitment it would open up the choice discussed above. Without it, the UK will argue that Scotland might not be in the EU, or might not be able to rejoin quickly. If

Unfortunately I suspect the EU can't make any such offer for legal / protocol reasons.
 
That is an amazing video. May has all the human warmth and charm of a rattlesnake. How on earth did she even manage to get elected MP?

She's probably the biggest ally of the SNP right now. I swear I'd put in a lot of hours, campaigning to separate Scotland from her UK if I lived there.
A friend of mine who was a very vigorous no voter last time announced tonight on Facebook, to the amazement of all who know him, that he's yes now. He said "I know! It's amazing what a xenophobic referendum and prolonged exposure to Mrs May and her Brexiteer chumps can do to one's political views."
 
The point I made previously though is that in this case, the sovereignty argument is valid. If someone says "I would rather Scotland is an independent sovereign nation even if we are poorer", they actually have a valid argument. You or I may not agree with it, but it's a valid point.

I utterly agree. But at the same time, I am anxious that serious scrutiny goes into the practical impacts of this potential decision.

For some people, governance away from the English will be sufficient and that's okay. I accept that, even if I don't agree with it.

For others, they are concerned about the impact of Tory cuts (like any other government wouldn't have had to do something similar) but on the surface it seems that there is the potential for an independence vote to mean not only that a Scottish government will have to cut harder and deeper than any Conservative government would dream of doing. That has to be examined.

The Scottish economy is perfectly fine. It's almost impossible to accurately calculate the Scottish economy as it currently is, and it's useless to use the currently published figures (while in the union, and much is obfuscated) to try to make claims about the economy of an independent Scotland.

ETA There is no rational case for Scotland staying in the union, the only legitimate card that remains for the vote no lot to play is an appeal to Britishness. They'll use that, plus lies and scaremongering. Hopefully less folk will fall for it this time. I expect many of the same old lies will be regurgitated.

ETA2 This is also relevant.

Jeeez. In a nutshell, there is the problem. In your first two sentences you have utterly contradicted yourself. How can you possibly say that the Scottish economy is perfectly fine when the very sources you call on say that no one knows?

Instead of making so much hay about the grievances in the relationship between Holyrood and Westminster, don't you think it would be a good idea to find out first?

Based on what you've written and the sources you've used, it seems that Theresa May is absolutely correct to say that the Scottish people can't make an informed decision. At least (in the context of the Brexit potential "no deal" scenario) the UK government knows where it's starting from. According to that Wings Over Scotland article, the Scottish government doesn't even know that. That makes a potential referendum even more of a gamble than it already looked based on the data/estimates available.

I have, and it is deeply flawed and biased against Scotland. Just off the top of my head there are quite a few companies registered in England, paying taxes in England, that operate in Scotland. There are also companies working out of London that are owned by mostly Scottish shareholders. And then there is the question of who owns the natural resources in Scotland and in the North Sea. And, of course, there is the fact that Scotland actually has around 90% of the UKs fresh water supply.

I call bull, or at least gross exaggeration. Get some verifiable figures/facts up. Let's talk about some specific companies. I've gone looking for proxy data as a substitute for formal revenue/wealth (business rates/income tax figures released to the media by the SNP government) and found nothing outwith 17% of the GERS data. If the GERS data is so nonsensical, why hasn't the sitting government of the last decade addressed that? This gets vetted by the UK Statistics Authority.

GERs already accounts (via estimate, so certainly not perfect) for economic activity in Scotland (rather than being HQ'd in England) so I'd be interested to see what you've got that suggests the official figures are so wrong. The GERS methodology notes are here.
 
"Scotch Parliament" has to be deliberate trolling = another bigot for the ignore pile.

I've known the person you're talking about there for coming up on five years now and have been on teamspeak with him. I can assure you that whatever else he may be, he is most assuredly a Scot, so your dismissal of him as a bigot is somewhat hilariously wide of the mark.
 
A friend of mine who was a very vigorous no voter last time announced tonight on Facebook, to the amazement of all who know him, that he's yes now. He said "I know! It's amazing what a xenophobic referendum and prolonged exposure to Mrs May and her Brexiteer chumps can do to one's political views."

That's exactly as I would have assumed.
 
That is an amazing video. May has all the human warmth and charm of a rattlesnake. How on earth did she even manage to get elected MP?

She's probably the biggest ally of the SNP right now. I swear I'd put in a lot of hours, campaigning to separate Scotland from her UK if I lived there.

Theresa May really is the biggest asset the SNP have. The nationalists in Scotland will vote for independence whatever. But liberal internationalists will vote for, well, liberal internationalism. The Scottish people who last time voted to remain a part of an international community are now going to be faced with Sturgeon vs May, rather than Salmond vs Cameron. Sturgeon can (and has already started to) paint herself as an internationalist trying to rescue Scotland from rampant English nationalism.

This will appeal to the Scottish liberals who last time voted to remain as a part of the UK, especially as hostile negotiations with the EU start. Sturgeon and the rest of the SNP know this, which is why they're timing the referendum for right when such negotiations will be ongoing. I am 100% certain that someone has attempted to point this out to Theresa May as well.

The second biggest asset of the SNP is Jeremy Corbyn. As I said earlier, the absolute feebleness of Labour under Corbyn allows the SNP to sell the very real idea that it'll be Tories ruling them for well over a decade to come. During the last referendum there was an expectation that Labour would revive, or at least the Tories would be put back into a coalition. Now people are expecting May to have a majority of well over 100.

If a referendum is held before 2022 then I'd say Scottish independence is a virtual certainty.
 
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I've known the person you're talking about there for coming up on five years now and have been on teamspeak with him. I can assure you that whatever else he may be, he is most assuredly a Scot, so your dismissal of him as a bigot is somewhat hilariously wide of the mark.
There are plenty of bigoted Scots.
 
There are plenty of bigoted Scots.

I'm sure there are but in the context of your comment it was fairly clear that you were suggesting he was specifically bigoted against Scots. I mean your comment was pretty clear but if you want to have a go at a retcon be my guest.

Probably also worth me pointing out that my mate doesn't need me to fight his battles for him, I only commented so that you wouldn't be misinterpreting any further comments he may make from the same misinformed starting point.
 
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I'm sure there are but in the context of your comment it was fairly clear that you were suggesting he was specifically bigoted against Scots. I mean your comment was pretty clear but if you want to have a go at a retcon be my guest.

Probably also worth me pointing out that my mate doesn't need me to fight his battles for him, I only commented so that you wouldn't be misinterpreting any further comments he may make from the same misinformed starting point.
Well, he was making derogatory and offensive anti-Scottish comments - that's why I put him on ignore in the first place. Where he was born is irrelevant.
 
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Read the fine print and you don't need to be an expert to see how convoluted it all is.

medium.com/@politicrumb/people-should-treat-gers-with-caution-when-it-comes-to-answers-about-scotlands-economy-14e8f508ffa7
I think I trust the opinions of multiple actual economists more than that of a blogger and amateur, anyway.

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That's exactly as I would have assumed.

He's an archaeologist, and I can only think of one of those I know who is still anti-independence. It's anecdotal, but most of the ones I know were yes the first time anyway. A few, like the friend I quoted, were very passionate no voters but almost all of them have announced that they've changed their minds. The one who is still a vigorous no is doing so largely out of a fierce hatred of the SNP. But he's more of a TV presenter than an archaeologist these days anyway :)
 
Well, he was making derogatory and offensive anti-Scottish comments - that's why I put him on ignore in the first place. Where he was born is irrelevant.

While I probably agree with your decision to put him on your ignore list...lol, I can say with certainty that Red is right in your being comically wide of the mark regarding Deva and bigotry (there's probably only a handful of people on here who fully understand how funny that last bit sounds.... smh).

One of those people will probably be offended by this image, but I'm going to leave it here anyway:
GIzjfv5.jpg
 
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I think I trust the opinions of multiple actual economists more than that of a blogger and amateur, anyway.

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He's an archaeologist, and I can only think of one of those I know who is still anti-independence. It's anecdotal, but most of the ones I know were yes the first time anyway. A few, like the friend I quoted, were very passionate no voters but almost all of them have announced that they've changed their minds. The one who is still a vigorous no is doing so largely out of a fierce hatred of the SNP. But he's more of a TV presenter than an archaeologist these days anyway :)

Your right - it's a conundrum, who to trust the the Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City, University of London or a blogger and amateur.

https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/841594155579105280
 
Theresa May really is the biggest asset the SNP have. The nationalists in Scotland will vote for independence whatever. But liberal internationalists will vote for, well, liberal internationalism. The Scottish people who last time voted to remain a part of an international community are now going to be faced with Sturgeon vs May, rather than Salmond vs Cameron. Sturgeon can (and has already started to) paint herself as an internationalist trying to rescue Scotland from rampant English nationalism.

If the Government is wise this time an independence referendum debate will be held between people who actually live in Scotland and not ex-pat scots with no skin in the game (Sean Connery anyone?) and politicians who've live south of the border for most of their adult and professional life.


The second biggest asset of the SNP is Jeremy Corbyn. As I said earlier, the absolute feebleness of Labour under Corbyn allows the SNP to sell the very real idea that it'll be Tories ruling them for well over a decade to come. During the last referendum there was an expectation that Labour would revive, or at least the Tories would be put back into a coalition. Now people are expecting May to have a majority of well over 100.

If a referendum is held before 2022 then I'd say Scottish independence is a virtual certainty.

I've heard it said over the last few days that one of the reasons that the independence vote lost out was because Scots were under the impression that the tory government would've been swept from power in the last election.

290px-Ed_Miliband_bacon_sandwich.jpg


Almost as ludicrous as the SNP's economic case for independence almost.

Perhaps this time the Nats could write their proposals down on stone as it seemed to work so well for Ed.
 
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Actually, deleted. Not even worth my time. If someone can't differentiate between being 'dergoatory ... anti-Scottish comments' and holding a different opinon about independence, any more nuanced discussion is likely an exercise in futility.

Clearly you were offended but some people wake up offended, that doesn't necessarily mean that a comment was in fact offensive by generally accepted social standards.
 
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Actually, deleted. Not even worth my time. If someone can't differentiate between being 'dergoatory ... anti-Scottish comments' and holding a different opinon about independence, any more nuanced discussion is likely an exercise in futility.
Err, no. His opinion on independence is as irrelevant as where he's from. It's his choice to use offensive, derogatory phrases (like "Scotch Parliament" and "land of milk and haggis") that marks him out as somebody with whom it is pointless to attempt to engage in a grown up conversation.
 
Err, no. His opinion on independence is as irrelevant as where he's from. It's his choice to use offensive, derogatory phrases (like "Scotch Parliament" and "land of milk and haggis") that marks him out as somebody with whom it is pointless to attempt to engage in a grown up conversation.

In fairness, he calls Ireland "one of the provinces" on a frequent basis, and I too choose to get all offended and put him on my igno.... no.... wait. I don't get offended at the slightest thing.
 
From that well known pernicious purveyor of false facts and fake news here's some fodder for Project Fear Mk II (The ScExit returns, (God that reads awful - I promise never to use it again - unless it will wind someone up then all gloves are off))- or could it be informed information - who knows?:

http://http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/breakaway-scotland-may-face-junk-rating-rqsqdxcfm

"An independent Scotland would have to plug a gaping hole in its public finances or face “downward pressures” on its credit rating, according to a senior director at ratings firm Moody’s — a prospect that could see the rating enter “junk” territory.

At the time of the last independence referendum in 2014 Moody’s said an independent Scotland’s rating would have been in range of A to Baa. Since then, a fall in the oil price has left Edinburgh facing a bigger budget deficit, said Colin Ellis, Moody’s chief credit officer for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Sub-investment grade ratings start at Ba, one notch below the lowest Baa rating. A fall into so-called junk territory would leave Scotland on a par with Azerbaijan and Guatemala........"
 
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From that well known pernicious purveyor of false facts and fake news here's some fodder for project fear - or could it be informed information - who knows?:

http://http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/breakaway-scotland-may-face-junk-rating-rqsqdxcfm

"An independent Scotland would have to plug a gaping hole in its public finances or face “downward pressures” on its credit rating, according to a senior director at ratings firm Moody’s — a prospect that could see the rating enter “junk” territory.

At the time of the last independence referendum in 2014 Moody’s said an independent Scotland’s rating would have been in range of A to Baa. Since then, a fall in the oil price has left Edinburgh facing a bigger budget deficit, said Colin Ellis, Moody’s chief credit officer for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Sub-investment grade ratings start at Ba, one notch below the lowest Baa rating. A fall into so-called junk territory would leave Scotland on a par with Azerbaijan and Guatemala........"

Like last time talking about what credit rating an independent Scotland would have is irrelevant.

Splitting up the family possessions and working out Scotlands share of the national debt would have to be worked out first and at this stage its academic as to what that would be.
 
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