I won't pretend to be a BGS expert, but I did play it a little.
My understanding is if there are no viable systems within 20ly to expand into, we would go into 'Investment' state. The next expansion attempt will be to a system >20ly.
If it works the way I understand it, that could be a good thing?
This is based on pre-3.3 information, and a lot changed in that release.

Since 3.3, Investment has no connection to Expansion any more (it's just an economic state that generally improves import prices but worsens export prices)

Also since 3.3, invasions have become much easier to obtain - they've been around since at least 2.2 but 3.3 got rid of the only major barrier to obtaining them - so it's basically impossible for a faction that's just starting out on its expansion to not have a viable target within 20 LY. (Not, in theory, completely impossible ... but in practice it's not happening)
 
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Hey guys. I see that Solati is on your list of possible expansion targets. I'm trying to push out Hodack Prison Colony there... they are down 0-3 in a war and at 8.2 influence. I expect them to be down to about 3% tomorrow. It'd be a win-win if we could replace a Club faction with TDW... Just something to consider. Thanks.
 
Just posted a little advertisement thread in the PS4 subforum. Perhaps we can recruit s few more CMDRs.
G'day commanders,
Our wing, (PS4), just got back into the bubble last night and have docked our FC in V886 Centauri. We would like to help however we can via BH'ing (turning in to TDW ports) and trading. If there is anything else or specifics let me know. Thx.
 
Hey guys. I see that Solati is on your list of possible expansion targets. I'm trying to push out Hodack Prison Colony there... they are down 0-3 in a war and at 8.2 influence. I expect them to be down to about 3% tomorrow. It'd be a win-win if we could replace a Club faction with TDW... Just something to consider. Thanks.
The extremely large PMF controlling the system probably makes it a very bad system for trying to get future expansions from. Whether it's useful to have a non-controlling presence in would depend on which future expansion sources were used ... though with it also being 20LY further from Sol than the current TDW systems, probably not at the moment.
 
G'day commanders,
Our wing, (PS4), just got back into the bubble last night and have docked our FC in V886 Centauri. We would like to help however we can via BH'ing (turning in to TDW ports) and trading. If there is anything else or specifics let me know. Thx.
BHing is fine, but pls only hand in TDW bounties in the station, other bounties at Interstellar Factors elsewhere. Otherwise inf missions for TDW etc. Feel free to join the discord stated in the OP (https://discord.gg/Wtgnsbq), there you'll see a daily update of the tasks we have (channel "Standing Orders"). Thanks
 
I do think I talk for many of us when I say that I have no idea how BGS works but as long as running INF missions, selling exploration data and such at Meredith it will lead influence of TDW grows to an expansion somewhere and then we rinse and repeat... Maybe one can effect where this expansion takes place, maybe not. I do not know.
Maybe creating chaos in systems that we want to expand TDW into would be a thing, but how? Selling that fancy Vitadyne nanomedicine to places and watch them die?
And just a reminder, when you return to Meredith, fill up your hull with something to sell, even if it does not pay a lot. Every little thing helps.

My personal theory about TDW have to do with LFT 509 and the "Tip Off" missions you get sometimes. I am of the personal belief that if you do enough of them you will get a mission that includes getting a LFT 509 permit.
 
I do think I talk for many of us when I say that I have no idea how BGS works but as long as running INF missions, selling exploration data and such at Meredith it will lead influence of TDW grows to an expansion somewhere and then we rinse and repeat... Maybe one can effect where this expansion takes place, maybe not. I do not know.
Maybe creating chaos in systems that we want to expand TDW into would be a thing, but how? Selling that fancy Vitadyne nanomedicine to places and watch them die?
And just a reminder, when you return to Meredith, fill up your hull with something to sell, even if it does not pay a lot. Every little thing helps.

My personal theory about TDW have to do with LFT 509 and the "Tip Off" missions you get sometimes. I am of the personal belief that if you do enough of them you will get a mission that includes getting a LFT 509 permit.
Yep. New to the BGS thing too. Just a note: only sell commodities at a profit in LFT 926. Selling at a loss lowers our INF.

I have done many Tip Off missions for TDW but they all seem to fit the text format and locations that have been cataloged by many other Cmdrs who have tried the same thing. Some have done 100s and they start to loop if you do enough of them. Not sure they lead anywhere. There is a post on the forums where one of the Devs chimed in and said the theories about them are much more interesting than the truth behind them. I am starting to believe that they may just be fluff immersion play and they don't really lead anywhere... I could be wrong.

I'm going to IRL travel for a few days, call it a 70 inf loss over the next four days. Sorry guys.
Have Fun. Stay Safe! ...
I will try to get some missions done myself but I am heading out to S171 18 for today's installment of the @drew 's Extended Lore tour. It is about 2859 ly away from LFT 926. I should have some UC to sell when I get back. It's 36 jumps away in my Beluga using Neutron Stars (That's my Lore Tour Ship - Not Ideal for jump range but it was built for the tour only)
 
I do think I talk for many of us when I say that I have no idea how BGS works but as long as running INF missions, selling exploration data and such at Meredith it will lead influence of TDW grows to an expansion somewhere and then we rinse and repeat... Maybe one can effect where this expansion takes place, maybe not. I do not know.
Maybe creating chaos in systems that we want to expand TDW into would be a thing, but how? Selling that fancy Vitadyne nanomedicine to places and watch them die?
And just a reminder, when you return to Meredith, fill up your hull with something to sell, even if it does not pay a lot. Every little thing helps.

My personal theory about TDW have to do with LFT 509 and the "Tip Off" missions you get sometimes. I am of the personal belief that if you do enough of them you will get a mission that includes getting a LFT 509 permit.
I used to get so many of these tip-off missions at one point. I attempted one countless times, to scan a data point at a high-security +++ facility in Djabara. I eventually came to the conclusion that it was definitely not solo-able (or my newbiness was never going to wear off), and I just gave up. I just deleted all the other T.O messages that would come in. They don't send them anymore :(
 
Hmm, its 76.02% now, and expansion is not in Pending. Whats blocking the expansion?
I don't know.
Capture (1).jpg

I am not sure if we have to hold above 75% for a day or maybe we have to wait for the ticks to complete - if that is even a thing. I do know that it seems Shin Dez updates before LFT 926 (at least on Inara - may be due to that system getting higher traffic so Inara's API gets hit by Cmdrs more often)

I do know that we are still showing a "Recovering" state from the Pirate Attack last weekend on the Elite BGS app -> https://elitebgs.app/system/59e82a4ad22c775be000d3ab I am not sure if there is a cooldown on pirate attacks. Most of the BGS sites list the cooldowns to things before Pirate Attack was added.
 
We came out of 'Pirate Attack' on Monday, that's four days of cool down so far.
Pirate Attack has 11 days of cooldown, I think.
(And a similar 'pending' period, but like all of the 'event' states the pending period is invisible to make them more interesting)

Ticks at the moment are quite extended and state and influence updates don't necessarily occur at the same time. Other factions have reported states going pending a day later than expected, too. Check back in a few hours and see how things look - the Pending state should show up.
 
I see that pending expansion finally got triggered. Now what?
Now you've got about 12 days to take any actions you want to take to try to direct the expansion in a favourable direction. It is absolutely essential that these actions are fully coordinated on a single plan or you could end up working against yourselves, so you will need to trust your leadership - however that is structured for you - to select a suitable target and develop the appropriate plan.

You will also pay about 15% of your LFT 926 influence to complete the expansion. It's probably worth maintaining influence there at a fairly high level, in case the expansion ends up going the wrong way and you want to try again from there. But you don't need to worry about keeping it over 75% or increasing it further.
 
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