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[VR Golgot]

I'd rather know what "New Era" is supposed to be about. We know they want to go with a more finished product. Which is good. really good. No roadmap bull, I guess. No season pass of nobody knowing what they get for their buck. Good. But if they still don't know what the core features of Nu Era are gonna bring and share that - I assume there isnt much of core features lining up.
And why that is - I assume they couldnt make it work and had to axe it.

Hell, I want to know what the big DLC is too man. I don’t think that has much of a bearing on the elements above though.

To reveal the main beats early would be pinning them to a roadmap again, no matter how vague, and doing it now would be starting the hype cycle ‘early’, from their perspective.

Your assumption that no reveal of any sort means dev has hit ruin, while possible, also conflicts with the RNS stuff posted earlier in the thread. If dev was going that badly, it’d be a pretty poor idea to tell the stock market that the DLC will be a big deal for FY2021. Like a really dumb idea.

Balance of evidence suggests the DLC work is rumbling along.

And hey, like you suggest, if it turns up at least we’ll be able to see it all up front this time

 

[Sylow]

Who wants to bet that it's not going to drop before Q2 2021?

Actually I think if we are LUCKY it will be moved back to Q2 or Q3. My logic behind that: up to now, anything FD delivered on time had also the flavor of being rushed out of the door. Quality suffered.

I mean, they even did that with stuff that had no external deadline, so no pressure from the public to release exactly on one date.

For me those releases so very much reminded me on a place I worked for a few months: managers got their bonus payments tied to delivery on certain dates. Which made them make sure that software was delivered on time, no matter of bugs, quality and whatever. The owners never figured out why customers would switch to an alternative product, not even when they had to sell the company and somebody else started running it. (That's why I won't give the name. The company by now, from what I hear, works very differently and actually delivers quality. )

A number of releases of this game just felt the very same to me. Some developers even admitted at some time (topic: engineers), that they were implementing something much more complex. But they found that they would've needed more time to implement it. So without having an official delivery date or any deadline, they dropped the concept and within a few weeks implemented what we got instead.

Considering that the next big thing has an official delivery date, I tremble at the thought of what might happen in the last weeks before they'll have to show it to the public. I consider it quite unlikely that they'll decide to delay the delivery to have better quality.

 

[VR Golgot]

Actually I think if we are LUCKY it will be moved back to Q2 or Q3. My logic behind that: up to now, anything FD delivered on time had also the flavor of being rushed out of the door. Quality suffered.

I mean, they even did that with stuff that had no external deadline, so no pressure from the public to release exactly on one date.

For me those releases so very much reminded me on a place I worked for a few months: managers got their bonus payments tied to delivery on certain dates. Which made them make sure that software was delivered on time, no matter of bugs, quality and whatever. The owners never figured out why customers would switch to an alternative product, not even when they had to sell the company and somebody else started running it. (That's why I won't give the name. The company by now, from what I hear, works very differently and actually delivers quality. )

A number of releases of this game just felt the very same to me. Some developers even admitted at some time (topic: engineers), that they were implementing something much more complex. But they found that they would've needed more time to implement it. So without having an official delivery date or any deadline, they dropped the concept and within a few weeks implemented what we got instead.

Considering that the next big thing has an official delivery date, I tremble at the thought of what might happen in the last weeks before they'll have to show it to the public. I consider it quite unlikely that they'll decide to delay the delivery to have better quality.

Thing is, they seem to have moved to an 'all in one' DLC precisely because of the type of issues you describe.

We’ll have to wait and see if it improves on some of those issues. But I think at minimum, suggesting a 2.5yr + production run is likely to be as rushed as the shorter Seasonal deliveries, purely because it hits its deadline, is a slightly odd assumption.

 

[Alien]

FDev manage a hype cycle for their marketing. Loads of games companies do. For the simple reason that it snowballs public and fan attention to be at its largest nearest launch. (Or at least that's the intent). It's a very simple, non-controversial, explanation.

They did reveal the target for the first expansion, but it was way back in the halcyon days of pre-launch (April 2013), when they were a ton more chatty (and chatting about the roadmap was part of the launch hype cycle...)

To reveal the main beats early would be pinning them to a roadmap again, no matter how vague, and doing it now would be starting the hype cycle ‘early’, from their perspective.

Frontier give me the impression that they think they can leave the community hanging for 2 to 2 1/2 years and we'll all come bouncing back when they decide to reveal what this new stuff will be.

What I think Frontier are failing to realise is that most of the community have moved on. There's a few new players, but not many. There's some hanging on, but for most of them, it's make or break time. If this Next Era doesn't meet expectations (and for a lot of people, that's "space legs", which to be fair, they've built up that expectation themselves, not Frontier) .... if it doesn't meet their expectations, it's the end as far as Elite Dangerous goes with them. Given how meh to disappointing Fleet Carriers have been ... I don't have much hope that Frontier can pull this back from the dead. It needs to be the best space game ever made, and I just can't see Frontier pulling that off.

Yea im hoping the nether update for MC drops soon as I have tons of ideas of what to do with the new blocks in creative.

You could start doing that now, if you're playing in creative mode. Just open the world in 1.16 once it's released.

 

[Crank Larson]

Too many ups.

 

[Jaffz]

Coming soon
Delay
No really, coming soon
Actually it's changed now
Delay
Coming the year after next

 

[Viajero]

What I think Frontier are failing to realise is that most of the community have moved on. There's a few new players, but not many.

I think you may be underestimating the new generations of commanders renewing the player base. I can certainly see it among the Spanish community. According to FDEV financials most of the ED related revenue in the past few years comes from sales of new copies (not paintjobs etc), i.e. new players, or relatively recent players if they buy Horizons. The fact available concurrency stats have been rock solid (or even slightly increasing) for years, and including recent historical records suggests also that newer, more recent, players continue taking the relay of older players who stop playing or take a break.

Last, but not least, we know they are aiming for a DLC that also appeals to new entry commanders, as per RNS statements describing this point very explicitely. Last year updates focused on the onboarding experience also attest to that. I highly doubt they would do that and spend resources that way if their sales stats were showing to them that new players were "not many".

 

[Ian Doncaster]

A number of releases of this game just felt the very same to me. Some developers even admitted at some time (topic: engineers), that they were implementing something much more complex. But they found that they would've needed more time to implement it. So without having an official delivery date or any deadline, they dropped the concept and within a few weeks implemented what we got instead.

They didn't have an official deadline set, but on the other hand:
- the original release of Horizons 2.0 set out a schedule where 2.1 Engineers would be a Q1 2016 release, and an implication that Horizons as a whole would be done by Q4 2016 or maybe Q1 2017.
- in Q1 they announced that they needed a bit more time and it would now be Q2 2016 for Engineers. Fair enough, we thought at the time.
- if they'd then announced "sorry, we really underestimated this, it's actually going to be Q4" ... and then what, similar delays to the 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4 releases (which all did take about 6 months rather than about 3 anyway) so the Thargoid invasion finally started in December 2019? Sure, the releases would have been better but on the other hand we might therefore just now be talking about what eventually became Beyond (even assuming it didn't need engineer rewrites, it would still need the other bits it had) with an expectation that the next "season" would start in 2022ish and take another five years to roll out?

Given how twitchy people are getting about not having had any major planned feature updates between Beyond 3.3 (counting Carriers as "should have been in 3.3") and Q1 2021 ... and how upset a lot of LEP owners were at the five year planned gap between Horizons 2.0 and the originally announced 4.0 date? I don't think - even if the expansions had all been really good for having the extra time - they couldn't have easily got away with that either.

 

[Rat Catcher]

What I think Frontier are failing to realise is that most of the community have moved on

I would think that they are able to assess the state of the game far better than any of the uninformed on this forum as they have player metrics whereas all we have is gripes and assumptions, wouldn't you agree?
ETA: Oh, and steam stats

 

[Viajero]

- the original release of Horizons 2.0 set out a schedule where 2.1 Engineers would be a Q1 2016 release, and an implication that Horizons as a whole would be done by Q4 2016 or maybe Q1 2017.

Small correction. 2.1 Engineers was scheduled for Spring (which can go very late into Q2 even) in the roadmap, not Q1. And 2.4 had no release date at all in the roadmap.

 

[Darth Ender]

does it really matter when they say something is going to be released? Some significant proportion of the playerbase will always be disappointed or frustrated at whatever new thing ends up coming out because it either favors a playing style they dont like, lacks something they think should have had priority, or introduces bugs that didn't exist before. If they're gonna get flak about whatever they say, why bother saying anything?

What keeps the game alive is lack of an alternative and effective marketing blurbs like "endless possibilities and billions of systems to explore" etc. Not mentioning the fact that after you've vised 1 empty system, you've basically visited all of them, that there is no activity you need to do or that pays more than the bottom tier grind activities, that nothing is dangerous unless you go out of your way to make it so and there's effectively no organic player content in the game as you (or any group of players) have no real persistent impact on the galaxy that matters.

I will laugh so hard if new era is space legs. It would be less useful than fleet carriers before they included the ability for owners to park ships without the additional shipyard charge. trying to do star citizen better than star citizen or trying to do nms better than nms is destined to fail and disappoint. But hey, those who want it, keep dreaming your little dreams of a game that can't seem to justify why it simulated a 1:1 galaxy 5 years in, would be perfectly capable of adding an additional order of magnitude in what you can interact with any better than the last time they did so (planet surfaces).

 

[Vandaahl]

What I think Frontier are failing to realise is that most of the community have moved on.

Bazmeson and his friend jogged on, and Old Duck took a break, thats 3. Anyone else I missed?

 

[VR Golgot]

What I think Frontier are failing to realise is that most of the community have moved on. There's a few new players, but not many.

.... if it doesn't meet their expectations, it's the end as far as Elite Dangerous goes with them.

It needs to be the best space game ever made, and I just can't see Frontier pulling that off.

Whoops I went off on one

TLDR: I don’t think "the best space game ever made" is required to sustain the franchise.

—

This whole GAAS dead-time is the downstream effect of a series of blunders IMO. (Mainly: Trying to make a far broader game than their resourcing allowed, & thinking that the seasonal system was a win-win model for delivering it). And the result is a bit of a horror show for vets now, I absolutely agree.

Hindsight is 20/20 though, and I still think their course correction of going big on the PDLC is about the only route they had available to resurrect their long game. (IE the expansion model re Atmos & Legs). Whether it irretrievably savages the veteran community in the process we’ll have to see.

It’s worth noting that they’re fairly aware of the gamble they’re taking though. The main updates of 2019 could have been focused on minor additions for vets at the start of the drought proper, post 3.3. Instead they focused on noob onboarding. And note in particular the language used in their biggest RNS filing on the 'New Era':

This will be characterised by significant new features to appeal to existing commanders, whilst being specifically designed to be a compelling, attractive and welcoming entry point for new players.

They’re looking to fresh blood to sustain the franchise easily as much as they’re looking to that 50%+ of the playerbase who bought a DLC.

And as Viajero also mentions, the interim years seem to be a story new uptake being the bread and butter cash:

In FY18 cosmetics brought in £4mil. The majority of their revenue came from new uptake of the game. The overall revenue for ED in FY18 was £22m

The Steam stats still show some bounce over time, and given the obvious veteran discontent, that is suggestive of ongoing intake. (And anecdotally at least, every Steam sales brings plenty of new faces to reddit exuding nooby interest).

And for a final anecdote, I’m a vet who’s not playing. But I’ll be back to check the DLC. It doesn’t have to be 'the best space game ever made' to get me back playing. At all. It’s just got to feature either Legs or Atmos, and be more than what we’ve been getting . They’ve put the resourcing in with this PDLC run to have a stab in those kinds of directions.

We’ve all got our personal caveats. Mine would VR support. Has to be there for me.

But if I don’t come back, a half-decent expansion will see plenty of others, new and old, that will

(Honestly, the biggest fear I’ve got with the whole strategy, beyond general FDev sketchiness, and ED’s natural niche-ness, is how the hell they're gonna price, package and market the core + DLC to brand new players. It’ll surely be at least £60 for the lot. Now for that, as a combo package, it will have to be something of note...)

 

[CMDR Mayhem]

Are you ok?

Run along now, the adults are talking.

 

[Red Anders]

I love that .gif

 

[audiodistortion]

This game is done, the new era will never happen.

 

[audiodistortion]

Are you ok?

I am now

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Small correction. 2.1 Engineers was scheduled for Spring (which can go very late into Q2 even) in the roadmap, not Q1. And 2.4 had no release date at all in the roadmap.

Yes, true. Though the original expected date for 2.1 was March, delayed to May. Technically in that sense it met the original schedule, but in practice it was enough of a slip - followed by the need to then have 2.1.05 to get some initial rebalancing in - that the rest of the schedule was already under serious delay for even what we got.

 

[Viajero]

Yes, true. Though the original expected date for 2.1 was March, delayed to May. Technically in that sense it met the original schedule, but in practice it was enough of a slip - followed by the need to then have 2.1.05 to get some initial rebalancing in - that the rest of the schedule was already under serious delay for even what we got.

There seems to be a bit of personal interpretation there. Lets just stick to the facts as per original roadmap plans for a minute, just so to put things in its actual perspective:

- 2.0 announced in August 2015 for December 2015, released on December 2015: On target

- 2.1 announced for Spring 2016, released on May 2016: On target

- 2.2 announced for Summer 2016 (ends 21 September), released on October 2016: 1 month gap (1.5 month as a compromise if you use methereological calendar)

- 2.3 announced for Fall 2016 (ends in 21st December), released April: 4 months gap (4.5 month as a compromise if you use methereological calendar)

- 2.4 no release date announced in original roadmap. Was actually announced on June 2017 for Q3 release that year: On target. Even if FDEV had announced in the original roadmap a 2.4 for "Winter", ending in March, which it had not, the gap would have been at most 6 months, or 6.5.

 

[Alien]

I think you may be underestimating the new generations of commanders renewing the player base. I can certainly see it among the Spanish community. According to FDEV financials most of the ED related revenue in the past few years comes from sales of new copies (not paintjobs etc), i.e. new players, or relatively recent players if they buy Horizons. The fact available concurrency stats have been rock solid (or even slightly increasing) for years, and including recent historical records suggests also that newer, more recent, players continue taking the relay of older players who stop playing or take a break.

Last, but not least, we know they are aiming for a DLC that also appeals to new entry commanders, as per RNS statements describing this point very explicitely. Last year updates focused on the onboarding experience also attest to that. I highly doubt they would do that and spend resources that way if their sales stats were showing to them that new players were "not many".

I would think that they are able to assess the state of the game far better than any of the uninformed on this forum as they have player metrics whereas all we have is gripes and assumptions, wouldn't you agree?
ETA: Oh, and steam stats

Whoops I went off on one

TLDR: I don’t think "the best space game ever made" is required to sustain the franchise.

—

This whole GAAS dead-time is the downstream effect of a series of blunders IMO. (Mainly: Trying to make a far broader game than their resourcing allowed, & thinking that the seasonal system was a win-win model for delivering it). And the result is a bit of a horror show for vets now, I absolutely agree.

Hindsight is 20/20 though, and I still think their course correction of going big on the PDLC is about the only route they had available to resurrect their long game. (IE the expansion model re Atmos & Legs). Whether it irretrievably savages the veteran community in the process we’ll have to see.

It’s worth noting that they’re fairly aware of the gamble they’re taking though. The main updates of 2019 could have been focused on minor additions for vets at the start of the drought proper, post 3.3. Instead they focused on noob onboarding. And note in particular the language used in their biggest RNS filing on the 'New Era':




They’re looking to fresh blood to sustain the franchise easily as much as they’re looking to that 50%+ of the playerbase who bought a DLC.

And as Viajero also mentions, the interim years seem to be a story new uptake being the bread and butter cash:





The Steam stats still show some bounce over time, and given the obvious veteran discontent, that is suggestive of ongoing intake. (And anecdotally at least, every Steam sales brings plenty of new faces to reddit exuding nooby interest).

And for a final anecdote, I’m a vet who’s not playing. But I’ll be back to check the DLC. It doesn’t have to be 'the best space game ever made' to get me back playing. At all. It’s just got to feature either Legs or Atmos, and be more than what we’ve been getting . They’ve put the resourcing in with this PDLC run to have a stab in those kinds of directions.

We’ve all got our personal caveats. Mine would VR support. Has to be there for me.

But if I don’t come back, a half-decent expansion will see plenty of others, new and old, that will

(Honestly, the biggest fear I’ve got with the whole strategy, beyond general FDev sketchiness, and ED’s natural niche-ness, is how the hell they're gonna price, package and market the core + DLC to brand new players. It’ll surely be at least £60 for the lot. Now for that, as a combo package, it will have to be something of note...)

What can I say? I agree with all of you.