We are winning, the tide has turned HIP 23716

It's obvious that Fdev have lowered the targets from the previous week. As the Burrs pointed out in their video, they kind of signposted it with this statement in the Galnet News ;-

The one advantage given to us by the arrival of further Maelstroms is the potential that Thargoid forces will be distributed more evenly across systems. With an expanded front line, defensive efforts may gain additional traction when defending or recapturing systems from the aliens.

I don't think that got through to the rest of the community until people noticed that the progress bar was going up faster than the previous week. AXI have been doing 'gangbusters' as always and even Operation Ida have come back on board but I feel that a liout of game comms could have reassured people and got players back into it quicker.

But here's an interesting thought. Even if we manage to prevent 1 invasion a week and there's a 7 week cycle, that means we stop 7 invasions (obviously), but with present numbers we still lose 35 systems to the Thargoids and the 24 on alert move to invasion.

Ouch!
 
I was wondering... assume for a moment that humanity will have to reach a point where winning this war would be a real possibility; does that mean the entry bar and the difficulty of Thargoid combat will be significantly lowered through adding more and more technological solutions? One could say... Thargoid combat will be trivialised? I can see how it would pee off those who see this as their "end game content" being ruined.

Or will the war be resolved by a mysterious "plot device"? Or will we actually lose and do a Galactica? Curious.
 
Maybe we shouldn't try to win anything for another few weeks so Frontier keep lowering the numbers. Why jump through many hoops when few hoops give the same outcome.

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I was wondering... assume for a moment that humanity will have to reach a point where winning this war would be a real possibility; does that mean the entry bar and the difficulty of Thargoid combat will be significantly lowered through adding more and more technological solutions? One could say... Thargoid combat will be trivialised? I can see how it would pee off those who see this as their "end game content" being ruined.
All the recent content has made thargoids easier (AX Cap ship CZs, station CZs, new weapons, better AX npcs that even limpet you!). That's generally seen as a good move and there's still a need to do it the hard way in the framework of the war in systems without stations and CZs or guaranteed NPC support.

I assume the end game content is inside the maelstroms and unlocked by the narrative eventually - it might be just a harder variation of the currently existing thargoid fights with forced caustic/guardian module damage and mines around, or it might be something entirely new.
 
It's obvious that Fdev have lowered the targets from the previous week. As the Burrs pointed out in their video, they kind of signposted it with this statement in the Galnet News ;-
It's obvious that the targets are lower this week. It's not obvious yet whether that this is a direct Fdev change or just how the Thargoid Simulation always [1] worked and the Galnet statement is just a hint as to what to look for - the specific amount the target appears lower by is interesting: there could just be a constant difficulty of the Thargoids and now they're spread out over more systems.

(More data next week when the remaining three maelstroms are likely to arrive, and then the week after when the number of affected systems shouldn't change by as much but will still increase a fair bit - but it's obviously tough to get good data on this sort of thing)

[1] Yes, yes, since the ancient days of "two weeks ago".

But here's an interesting thought. Even if we manage to prevent 1 invasion a week and there's a 7 week cycle, that means we stop 7 invasions (obviously), but with present numbers we still lose 35 systems to the Thargoids and the 24 on alert move to invasion.
Average invasion cycle is probably about 3 or 4 weeks for most systems - it depends on the system size a bit, but would need an absolutely huge system to take them 7 weeks to capture, if what I'm seeing on what determines it is correct. And not all the alerts move to invasion - uninhabited systems, which are the majority of alerts right now, move directly to Control.

But yes, once all the Maelstroms are set up on current patterns we can expect them to be capturing 60-80 net systems a week, which would - noting that they also go for uninhabited systems - take out the entire bubble in about 20 years on a straight-line extrapolation.

(Obviously the error bars on that estimate are uselessly huge at this stage - anywhere between a year and never is easily possible)
 
Maybe we shouldn't try to win anything for another few weeks so Frontier keep lowering the numbers. Why jump through many hoops when few hoops give the same outcome.

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This will only work if people keep complaining about the numbers at the same time... which will be no problem I guess :LOL:
 
Yay, so we successfully defend this one system, meanwhile Thargs gain other systems because there are not enough of us to defend multiple systems, and they will eventually end up surrounding us :LOL:
 
It'll get reset everywhere else. That's the problem.
Mostly not in a way that will make a difference, though. At this stage, other than a couple of high profile systems, everywhere is so low that:
- if Alert or Control, it's a 1-week timer anyway.
- if Invasion, it's a 3-4 week timer (or at least, that's how the map represents the series of related 1-week timers) which is nowhere near 1/3 or 1/4 complete after one week, so still wouldn't be completed after the full time.

HIP 23716 is being won this week, and without reset it would also be won this week.

HIP 20485 might be lost this week, but no-one expects Alert progress to carry over into the subsequent Invasion anyway.

Longer-term ... well, longer-term we still know virtually nothing about how the thresholds are supposed to work and whether the reset or lack of it during invasions will make a significant difference to the outcome.
 
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