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What 2020 Update "Red Flags" would concern you?
- Thread starter Andro
- Start date
Not really. Currently it seems like there is a big number of unreported cases because the majority of infections are absolutely harmless. Official numbers for mortality are 0.3-0.7% (which is pretty similar to a flu), ignoring the unreported cases.
Hmm...business decisions that would spook the consumer...
I like these sorts of questions.
Well, let's start with what already has happened:
That last one is particularly worrying. This isn't 'we promise to do X, Y, Z'. A vision is fairly simple, only about a paragraph at most, that easily conveys what the product is about and where it is going. A vision needs to precede nearly all communications so as to consistently hammer home what the product is about to the consumer.
An example would be, "We envision Elite Dangerous as a cutting edge space-flight simulator that sees commanders (the players) operating diverse and complex craft in a wide array of industries and professions largely represented by the core aspects of Combat, Trade, Exploration, and Competition."
Without a consistently telegraphed vision, not only are employees left unsure of "where are we going?" but so, too, are consumers. That's a surefire way to scare consumers off, especially in this growing age of Games as a Service where, increasingly, consumers are asking the all important question, "Where will this product be in two years? Five years?" More and more consumers see these games as long-term investments. Onboarding is easiest at the start, when the vision is fresh and new, but becomes harder and harder as time goes on.
"Have I missed too much?" or "Will I be behind?" (EVE Online, Warframe)
"How much will this cost me?" or "How much grinding?" (No Man's Sky, Star Citizen)
"Is this game going anywhere?" or "Is the community thriving?" (Elite Dangerous, Minecraft)
These are just some examples. Many, many games fit some or all of these questions. Without a consistently telegraphed vision, FDev is scaring off not only new consumers but existing ones as well. The attrition rate matters as much as the onboarding rate. Cycling in 100 new players a day is meaningless if overall retention is dropping 5% a month.
Now then, back to the OP...what to look for going forward?
For me, the biggest concern is that there continues to be a failure to communicate anything of substance on a regular (monthly) basis. Why FDev is fearful of sharing progress reports for large, anticipated or desired features, is beyond me. Even slow progress is a welcome sight to a consumer-base starved for information. There are thousands of studios that have struggled with development and did not lose their consumer-base sharing those struggles. If anything, many of these studios produced astounding products with the financial support of a dedicated consumer-base. FDev is, potentially, missing out here.
On the flip-side, the harsh reality could be that Elite Dangerous is simple not a large enough product to warrant strong development strategy. It doesn't matter it's "where it all started". If Elite lacks the pull of other products, it won't get the resources that could make it great because the other products already are great. That's just business. Which leads to the final point:
- If nothing changes: if the current cycle that has existed from Day 1 continues, that's the worst news.
It means Elite will get better, slowly. The community will remain frustrated but only slowly bleed out. The product will be in its maturation stage and heading into decline, milked until the black ink starts to get a little dry. It's just business, and Elite might be there. If 2020 is like 2019, like 2018, 2017, and 2016...
Then 2021 will be the same, too. Bail now, if you're wanting more. If you're satisfied, Elite will likely continue on for many more years as other products sail past it. Just like many other products sailed past World of Warcraft, never killing it because it didn't need to be killed. WoW is dying a slow death for purely business reasons. It's not sad or unfortunate. It's actually quite a solid strategy, just frustrating for die-hard fans that can't say goodbye and support a new product. That may very well be Elite, too.
I like these sorts of questions.
Well, let's start with what already has happened:
- Multiple failed launch dates for center-piece feature (FCs)
- Public-facing financial reports highlighting lackluster investment in product
- Very Poor Communication that creates wide gaps for assumptions and guessing by consumer
- Failure to consistently telegraph vision for product or development roadmap
That last one is particularly worrying. This isn't 'we promise to do X, Y, Z'. A vision is fairly simple, only about a paragraph at most, that easily conveys what the product is about and where it is going. A vision needs to precede nearly all communications so as to consistently hammer home what the product is about to the consumer.
An example would be, "We envision Elite Dangerous as a cutting edge space-flight simulator that sees commanders (the players) operating diverse and complex craft in a wide array of industries and professions largely represented by the core aspects of Combat, Trade, Exploration, and Competition."
Without a consistently telegraphed vision, not only are employees left unsure of "where are we going?" but so, too, are consumers. That's a surefire way to scare consumers off, especially in this growing age of Games as a Service where, increasingly, consumers are asking the all important question, "Where will this product be in two years? Five years?" More and more consumers see these games as long-term investments. Onboarding is easiest at the start, when the vision is fresh and new, but becomes harder and harder as time goes on.
"Have I missed too much?" or "Will I be behind?" (EVE Online, Warframe)
"How much will this cost me?" or "How much grinding?" (No Man's Sky, Star Citizen)
"Is this game going anywhere?" or "Is the community thriving?" (Elite Dangerous, Minecraft)
These are just some examples. Many, many games fit some or all of these questions. Without a consistently telegraphed vision, FDev is scaring off not only new consumers but existing ones as well. The attrition rate matters as much as the onboarding rate. Cycling in 100 new players a day is meaningless if overall retention is dropping 5% a month.
Now then, back to the OP...what to look for going forward?
- Center-piece feature FCs delayed again. Three times is a charm for bad juju.
- Communication lockout (which we're possibly entering into. A lockout is usually 6+ months.) This means even the ceasing of standard streams and social media communications at superficial levels. Total lockout. This can build significant hype for a healthy product that usually enjoys positive, transparent communication. That's not this product. A Lockout will build hype for die-hards, but it's a very bad sign from a business perspective.
- Rapid-Fire Patching. A mad dash to clean up ancient bugs implies inability to plan out maintenance. That doesn't spell doom for the product, but it does clearly telegraph the business leadership doesn't have a flying clue of how to do maintenance the right way. That years-old bugs currently exist makes this that much worse.
- New Era Details kept until Q3. This is a big no-no. We're already in crisis mode for information and communication. Holding your cards makes it far worse. Transparent communication, including development struggles, will drastically reduce consumer anxiety. Companies struggle and the gaming industry is well aware of that. Communities are, too. Choosing to hide those struggles clearly transmits lack of trust or engagement with the consumer. If October arrives with no concrete information on New Era, it will do more harm than good regardless of the expansion's actual content.
For me, the biggest concern is that there continues to be a failure to communicate anything of substance on a regular (monthly) basis. Why FDev is fearful of sharing progress reports for large, anticipated or desired features, is beyond me. Even slow progress is a welcome sight to a consumer-base starved for information. There are thousands of studios that have struggled with development and did not lose their consumer-base sharing those struggles. If anything, many of these studios produced astounding products with the financial support of a dedicated consumer-base. FDev is, potentially, missing out here.
On the flip-side, the harsh reality could be that Elite Dangerous is simple not a large enough product to warrant strong development strategy. It doesn't matter it's "where it all started". If Elite lacks the pull of other products, it won't get the resources that could make it great because the other products already are great. That's just business. Which leads to the final point:
- If nothing changes: if the current cycle that has existed from Day 1 continues, that's the worst news.
It means Elite will get better, slowly. The community will remain frustrated but only slowly bleed out. The product will be in its maturation stage and heading into decline, milked until the black ink starts to get a little dry. It's just business, and Elite might be there. If 2020 is like 2019, like 2018, 2017, and 2016...
Then 2021 will be the same, too. Bail now, if you're wanting more. If you're satisfied, Elite will likely continue on for many more years as other products sail past it. Just like many other products sailed past World of Warcraft, never killing it because it didn't need to be killed. WoW is dying a slow death for purely business reasons. It's not sad or unfortunate. It's actually quite a solid strategy, just frustrating for die-hard fans that can't say goodbye and support a new product. That may very well be Elite, too.
My biggest concern would be if Frontier didn’t charge us for the update and didn’t have some new form of monetisation. I’ve been enjoying free updates, content, and thousands of hours of fun virtually for free now. If they keep this up I will have grave concerns about how they are making their money and whether this is some massive front for the Chinese Triads or something sinister
Deleted member 38366
D
Let's discuss this in 8-12 weeks. If you're still able to, that is.
What you wrote is one of the prime examples why the Virus can spread onto what can only be described as an optimal Biomass. Uninformed, unprepared, vulnerable.
Perfect breeding grounds, doesn't get any better than this.
Deleted member 38366
D
Oh don't worry... I will do exactly that.
Don't know if you remember this, but back in the days of the the Dangerous Games, the contest that allowed player groups to vie to become a powerplay power, a streamer "Chaos Wolf" and his group, the Wolves of Jonai, were in the running, and they won, rather than EGP + Russian support giving us 'Grom, the wolves power specific module would have been a powerdistributor that had an extra pip. I have also seen CMDR's admit to multicrewing with their alt accounts for that extra pip, which I think is cheating.
@sandkid that was an epic piece of writing, as someone who is passionate about elite dangerous, reading your post gave me a chill... It would be grim reading for the died in the wool "FDev can do no wrong" fanboys, but as somehting of a pragmatist, regretably I have to say your logic is impecable.
@FalconFly - I think you are missing the point, most of the players of this game are mature gamers, Elite has an older demographic. Which means most of us are less intersted in social media trends and more interested in keeping up to speed with world affairs. As such I think most elite players, especially "forum dads" are all too well aware that California has burnt to a crisp, as has australia, which is now getting flooded, the UK is running out of alphabetically ordered names for all the storms we are getting, there is a plague of locusts working their way up from Africa, across Eurasia, and about to hit China. China being a country which has their own problems in the form of yet another nasty flu variant that they are sharing with the world.
None of these current events can be solved by any player of elite, so, speaking for myself here, but I suspect my sentiments echo with other forumites, we come here looking for a way to unload our brains, most often in the times where we have ten minutes to kill, not enough time for a meaningful play session. So we are not really interested in a reminder that we are living on a planet with potentially ireversable climate damage, on which there is a full house of biblical punishments running concurrently. Actually the polaric opposite is true, we are here trying to escape that reality.
I mean, come on man, its not like we come here for "the news and happenings in and around elite dangerous" - where there is only radio silence from the developers, and no community engaged activities, Community Goals or Interstellar Initiatives etc. Really, I think a lot of current forum traffic is just people looking for light escapism with like minded people (fellow space game nerds if you will). Look at the utterly nonsensical breaking news / blame TJ thread thats up at over forty pages now, forty pages of witty nonsense.
If you want to go doom monger about just how badly fragked the world is, maybe it owuld be best if you found a more suitable community of nihilists for your existential threat conversations...
Does the daily express have a forum?
None of these current events can be solved by any player of elite, so, speaking for myself here, but I suspect my sentiments echo with other forumites, we come here looking for a way to unload our brains, most often in the times where we have ten minutes to kill, not enough time for a meaningful play session. So we are not really interested in a reminder that we are living on a planet with potentially ireversable climate damage, on which there is a full house of biblical punishments running concurrently. Actually the polaric opposite is true, we are here trying to escape that reality.
I mean, come on man, its not like we come here for "the news and happenings in and around elite dangerous" - where there is only radio silence from the developers, and no community engaged activities, Community Goals or Interstellar Initiatives etc. Really, I think a lot of current forum traffic is just people looking for light escapism with like minded people (fellow space game nerds if you will). Look at the utterly nonsensical breaking news / blame TJ thread thats up at over forty pages now, forty pages of witty nonsense.
If you want to go doom monger about just how badly fragked the world is, maybe it owuld be best if you found a more suitable community of nihilists for your existential threat conversations...
Does the daily express have a forum?
It's Agony_Aunt... of course he is
Hang on, am I the only one who thought of Agony_Aunt as 'she'?
Now I want to be able to stick an actual flag on a pole on my ship.
To add to potential "red flags" if (IF) the leak is true and we will get cosmetics for bases/character and what not, I can imagine "quantity over quality" being an issue.
So far ship skins and kits are VERY hit or miss for me. I`m a sucker for fancy cosmetics but sometimes I`m worried if FD pays their art department enough for those..
So far ship skins and kits are VERY hit or miss for me. I`m a sucker for fancy cosmetics but sometimes I`m worried if FD pays their art department enough for those..
Seriously, I find the revolving-door of employees worrisome (Kay Ross unleaving a good sign, tho') as well as cutting content, forex CGs and Galnet. Future? Dumbing -down, I have visions of it turning into an 8-year-old's adventure, all wrapped up in time for dinner.
It's a cosmetic, a bit of art for a ship. If you don't like the quality, don't buy the damn thing, it means absolutely nothing in the game. And if the quality is that bad, then if no one buys them FD would/should know something is wrong. So I don't see it even as a problem, much less these mythical 'red flags' everyone seems to be so worried about.
I do tend to vote with my wallet, exactly.
Well then it isn't a problem, much less a red flag. A red flag to me is something that if introduced would be detrimental to the overall enjoyment of the game. Cosmetics, either good or bad, therefore at most would be a very minor inconvenience and at most, only affect a very small proportion of the player base.
![[VR] Mad Mike](https://forums-cdn.zaonce.net/data/avatars/m/27/27910.jpg?1553527108){kind=avatar}
in an ideal world imo cosmetics would not be monetised and instead used to create gameplay by giving people goals to do to earn them. I would happily fly around getting allied with as many factions as i posibly could if it meant i earned a little minature pin for instance with that factions paint job that i could place in a cabinet, as well as equip on my ship for instance... that could give me many 1000s of hrs play. To be honest i would not really even bother about the quality of them if that were the case.
However this is a very last decade way of looking at things. I dont see this changing any time soon so anyone not prepared to put up with having cosmetics buyable out of game rather than directly earnable in game i think should just look elsewhere..... (at least we CAN indirectly earn them ingame at least in principle now)