What are the odds?

[Venomhawk]

I am a fairly new explorer and I am on my first 10K+ly journey currently. About 20 mins ago I just found my most valuable system to date according to EDSM. This system has 10 High Metal Content Planets, 1 Terraformable Water World, 1 Earth Like World, and 1 Ammonia World, and then 3 Rocky Bodies. What I am curious about is this, what are the odds of getting the WW, ELW, and AW all in system? I have never seen more than 1 of them in any given system.

Oh and once I turn in the data I will post screens of the system data with name of the system uncovered.

 

[XYZ]

Thats an exploration ship i didn't expected to see. . .
Beware when returning to the bubble, some light trigger CMDR may put unwanted researh limpet into the back of your cargo hatch.

 

[MaultierColt308]

About the "all in one" attribute of the system: I think these systems are quite rare. You will mostly see either none, one (WW, AW or ELW) or maybe two kinds (ELW/WW or WW/AW or ELW/AW), but all three of them in a system is like a jackpot I think.

I'm around since late-December 2018 (with some week-/month-long breaks), and found only 3 systems of this kind (of around 11,800 visited) so far - my third came in just yesterday . So I would say: Congratulations to this find!

(Next step: Find such a system, but at least one of those three kinds is in the system more than once (i.e. 2 WWs instead of one) )

 

[goemon]

according to this brilliant thread

Marx's guide to finding Earth-like worlds

Welcome to my guide to finding Earth-like worlds! Questions about how to find or identify ELWs often pop up, so I wrote this to cover the frequently asked questions and everything related. If you read this little text, you'll know how to improve your chances of finding ELWs. Note that nothing...

forums.frontier.co.uk

chances to find an earth-like are 2% around the correct star and 0,22% around any star.

i don't now the numbers for water worlds and terraformables (note that 1 terraformable often comes with others).

but let's assume that for Waterworlds the chance is 4 times as high as for Earth-Likes, and for Terraformables it is 15 times as high.

in that case, your odds of finding a system with an ELW, WW and TF around the appropriate star would be

0,02 x 0,08 x 0,3 = 0,00048
0,0048 % or ~ 1:2000

 

[Factabulous]

Raw percentages are probably not an ideal way to look at this - as the chance of a system being suitable for an ELW also increase the chances for WW by the look of it.

From my dataset I get:

Chance of a system having an ELW: 0.220%
Chance of a system having ELW/WW/AW: 0.002%
Chance of a system having ELW/AW: 0.006%
Chance of a system having ELW/WW: 0.064%
Chance of a system having AW/WW: 0.053%

Another way of looking at it is what are the % chance given an ELW in the system:
WW/AW : 1.022%
AW: 2.743%
WW: 29.245%

 

[Sapyx]

"What are the odds" depends to a large degree on "what sort of stars are you looking at". If it's completely unfiltered, or just filtered to scoopables OBAFGKM, then your odds of finding any of those valuable planets drops quite significantly. @Factabulous 's method of assuming you've found an ELW, then what are the odds of the other things appearing, is a good one.

But here too, you can increase your odds of finding good stuff by being selective about your target stars. Hotter stars have wider Goldilocks zones, meaning it's more likely a randomly generated planet will land in the zone and have a chance of being turned into a valuable planet.

I've surveyed over 5000 systems for my ED7K Project so far, equally divided among the seven most common star types (BAFGKML) and across four sectors in different parts of the galaxy. Looking at just the 2400 A, F and G stars, I have found 44 Earth-likes and 62 Ammonia worlds. On this basis, the pure-random-chance probability of one of those ELW systems also having an ammonia world would be 1 in 38, so statistically, I ought to have found a couple by now.

Here's the only one I have actually found, and it also happens to have a terraformable waterworld in it too (which, as Facta noted, is far more probable than sharing with an Ammonia World): Thraikoo LQ-X d1-1. The star is F class, and all the worlds in question orbit that one solo star. Planet 4 is the ELW, planet 3 is the terraformable WW, and planet 8 is the Ammonia World. Planet 2 is a terraformable HMC. Here's a screenshot of the system I took earlier:

 

[Venomhawk]

Thats an exploration ship i didn't expected to see. . .
Beware when returning to the bubble, some light trigger CMDR may put unwanted researh limpet into the back of your cargo hatch.

I am one of those old guys that grew up playing the original Elite on C64 in the 80s, and I ALWAYS wanted a Python then and could not get it. Nowadays I am a fuel rat and explorer most of the time and I intentionally have put in the work to make my python work for those things. I know it is not the best ship for doing it, but it is a labor of love for me

 

[Sunyavadin]

It's probably someone like Marx you want to answer that question. Our resident exploration number cruncher.

 

[Zieman]

I am one of those old guys that grew up playing the original Elite on C64 in the 80s, and I ALWAYS wanted a Python then and could not get it. Nowadays I am a fuel rat and explorer most of the time and I intentionally have put in the work to make my python work for those things. I know it is not the best ship for doing it, but it is a labor of love for me

Same here with Asp mk II - too bad I have to do with Asp Explorer, but it works ok.

 

[iain666]

I am one of those old guys that grew up playing the original Elite on C64 in the 80s, and I ALWAYS wanted a Python then and could not get it. Nowadays I am a fuel rat and explorer most of the time and I intentionally have put in the work to make my python work for those things. I know it is not the best ship for doing it, but it is a labor of love for me

Fly what you love to fly, that's the only rule for an exploration ship. Last time I went out in my Python I got distracted and wandered off from the bubble without bothering to change the loadout and did about 50kly with A-rated everything and all the guns still on and it was grand. I was just going to do 1kly or so out and come back again to get data to sell to unlock a permit but once I'd left I just didn't want to turn round.

 

[Venomhawk]

Fly what you love to fly, that's the only rule for an exploration ship. Last time I went out in my Python I got distracted and wandered off from the bubble without bothering to change the loadout and did about 50kly with A-rated everything and all the guns still on and it was grand. I was just going to do 1kly or so out and come back again to get data to sell to unlock a permit but once I'd left I just didn't want to turn round.

Lol I have been tempted to extend my roundabout trip towards colonia all the way to Beagle Point because I noticed today it looks like there are less than 10 Pythons in the 65Kly club

 

[iain666]

Lol I have been tempted to extend my roundabout trip towards colonia all the way to Beagle Point because I noticed today it looks like there are less than 10 Pythons in the 65Kly club

If you want to join the 65k club then I'm afraid you'll need to get into buckyball mode. I'm closing it to new entries in 48 hours - which is, admittedly, more than enough time for the current record holder to go from Sol to BP and back 4 times if they can stay awake that long but still quite a short timeframe for normal people.

 

[Hedy]

Coincidentally I came across a system with all 3 a few weeks ago myself.

EDSM - Elite Dangerous Star Map

The Galactic Positioning System of Elite: Dangerous at your service.

www.edsm.net

Cannot recall if I have seen the grouping prior to this.