They will just get together as a bunch of players and do their thing instead, rather than being part of an organisation that permits a blanket ban being applied.
Game Discussions Star Citizen Discussion Thread v12
- Thread starter Yaffle
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I believe that some form of private groups (or maybe "streaming filters" in CIG technobabble) are inevitable in the long run. If the run gets to be that long.
(No, private modded servers are a post-release-release feature
)When a bank manager calls your business a scam, man, that hurts.
With all the recent doom and glory, I'd expect that Elite might yet outlive Star Citizen ("Star People" after its aquisition by Tencent, great mobile game, though).
I think y'all should put it into perspective. And what would better than comparing this trainwreck to a really awful game? One that can't even handle doors properly, or the NPC who can't react to opening a door properly.
Not to mention the despicable barkeep logic.
Not to mention the despicable barkeep logic.
So some blogger tried to fathom CIG's financial comings and goings...
nosygamer.blogspot.com
TLDR:
They guesstimate:
---
Bit of fun anyway
(I like the bit where they decide that Turbulent's acquisition was essentially free, because chancers like Benoit would totally accept future SQ42 receipts instead)
How Much Does CIG Need To Sell In 2024
In 2023, Cloud Imperium Games, makers of Squadron 42 and Star Citizen, sold a record $117.4 million in goods recorded on the Roberts Space Industries funding page. But did that make 2023 a good financial year for CIG? And what type of sales does CIG need in 2024 to remain financially stable? For the second year in a row I will attempt to answer those questions. Just remember, I have no inside information and am not a financial expert. I have just covered video game company finances, in particular CCP and Pearl Abyss, for over a decade.
Cloud Imperium Games releases a financial report on its website approximately one year after the conclusion of a year. For example, the report for 2022 was released on 2 January 2024. Also, as of the time of composing this article, CIG had still not submitted its 2022 financial accounts to the UK Companies House. Still, my speculation in February 2023 of CIG's financial performance was fairly accurate. My rough calculations showed CIG with $128.6 million in total income with $124.7 million in spending in 2022 (Yes, I should have stuck with my first answer). The actual totals were $130.7 million in income and outgoes of $129.4 million.
A year ago I thought CIG needed to record between $128.6 million and $134.6 million, or a year-over-year increase of between 13.2% to 18.5%, in sales. I based the estimated required 2023 sales figure on my estimate for CIG's spending in 2023 of between $143.4 million to $149.6 million.
As mentioned above, CIG only recorded $117.4 million in sales, meaning my initial estimate puts CIG's losses in 2023 between $8.8 million and $21 million. A pretty wild swing, and one which assumes the company didn't make any major changes. CIG did make a major change, acquiring Turbulent Media Inc for an undisclosed amount in May.
How did the acquisition of Turbulent affect CIG financially? First, how much did CIG pay for Turbulent? My valuation of the Canadian company is based on the best information I could find about Turbulent's 2022 revenue without paying money to the government of Quebec, $17.9 million. But was the amount in US or Canadian dollars? The sites I visited didn't say.
I wound up choosing Canadian dollars based on the following passage in the 2022 report:
Converting the $17.9 million to US dollars, the total revenue in 2022 was $US 13.2 million. Based on what I could tell was the percentage of Turbulent staff working on CIG projects, the Quebec company receiving approximately 70% of its income from CIG seems the best answer.
If the value of a company is 3 times income, that would place the value of Turbulent at $39.6 million. Due to a deal in 2020, CIG already owned a 25% share of Turbulent. The amount left for CIG to purchase falls to $29.7 million.
Looking through the filings at Companies House, the co-founders of Turbulent, Marc Beaudet and Benoit Beausejour, received a combined total of 30,120 shares of CIG stock. Using the valuation of CIG of $496 million used in the Calder's initial investment in CIG, each share is $42.23, bringing the remaining amount CIG owed down to $28.4 million.
So, how much did the Turbulent acquisition cost CIG in 2023? If my theory is correct, nothing. If I am correct, CIG offered up the sales of Squadron 42 as collateral and do not have to begin payment until either sales of the single player game start rolling in or a set term, like 5 years, whichever comes first. I should add that CIG as of the end of 2021 had a loan arrangement with Coutts based on repayment when CIG received anticipated funds. By my estimates, the loan should be repaid after the sale of 1 million units after sales of Squadron 42 reopen.
The only additional costs are the costs of employing the 160-200 Turbulent employees, which I roll into other calculations.
A possibly overlooked factor is how much additional revenue did Turbulent contribute from non-CIG sources. CIG was not Turbulent's only client. If I'm correct in my assumptions, then Turbulent earned approximately $4 million from non-CIG clients in 2022. Assuming the same level of income in 2023, and prorating the amount for the period CIG owned 100% of Turbulent, I will add an additional $2 million to CIG's "Other income" category for both 2023 and 2024. I'm granting some income in 2024 due to contracts that run past the end of 2023.
CIG Revenue, 2012-2022, from 2022 financial report
With the analysis of the Turbulent acquisition complete, the next topic is CIG's total revenue for 2023. Looking at the CCU Game dashboard, CIG racked up $117.6 million in sales in 2023 that registered on the funding dashboard page. Barring adjustments, analysts know the amount of the largest revenue category. But what about the other two categories, Subscriptions and Other Income? After looking at the data from 2018 to 2022, neither category corresponds at all with the regular sales. Which means I will use the 5-year average growth for each category: 11.7% for subscriptions and 17.8% for other income. I will also add an additional $2 million to the Other Income category for revenue brought in by Turbulent's non-CIG business. Using those figures, total income for 2023 comes out to $138.9 million broken out as follows:
- Sales: $117.6 million
- Subscriptions: $5.9 million
- Other income: $15.4 million
CIG Outgoes, 2012-2022, from 2022 financial report
Now for a much more difficult subject, CIG's expenses. I normally just base growth estimates on a company's headcount. If headcount is expected to rise 10%, I expect overall costs to increase 10%. But I also realize CIG moved into new office space in Manchester, UK and Frankfurt, Germany in 2021 and 2022, increasing costs for both years. To try to account for the temporary rise, I took the average amount of money spent per CIG employee from 2018 to 2022, converted to constant 2023 US dollars.
Information extrapolated from the 2022 financial report
The five-year average was $143,000 per employee, rounded up. CIG's estimated outgoes for 2023 were $157.3 million. According to my latest estimate, CIG experienced a loss of $18.4 million in 2023.
If I am close to correct, CIG experienced its biggest one year loss in its 12-year history. As a reference, the two previous years with the biggest financial losses, 2018 and 2019, combined for losses of $16.9 million. We will find out for certain when CIG releases the 2023 financial report in either December 2024 or January 2025.
However, I don't have the luxury of waiting another 11-12 months for the final data to make my initial estimate for 2024. First, I need to estimate CIG's spending for the current year. I will make a large assumption and predict CIG will not increase employee headcount in 2024. In addition, I will assume an inflation rate of approximately 4%, making spending per employee jump up to $148,000, with one exception. I expect CIG to engage in a large marketing effort for Squadron 42 in 2024, so I am adding an additional $11 million to the Publishing Operations, Community, Events & Marketing portion of the budget. The amount represents a 30% increase in that section of the budget. Total estimated spending for 2024 is $173.8 million.
The exercise is almost complete. The last two numbers required to estimate the value of goods CIG needs to sell in the cash shop are Subscriptions and Other Income. To calculate the numbers, I'll use the same constants as I used to estimate the values for 2023. The numbers add up to $24.4 million.
My best estimate to the question, "How much merchandise does CIG need to sell in order to break even in 2024?", is $149.4 million.
- Subscriptions: $6.6 million
- Other income: $17.8 million
When I finished all my calculations, I thought the numbers were way too high. But then when doing one of many sanity checks, I realized $149.4 million means CIG needs to increase sales by 27%. What is the average increase in sales from 2019 to 2023? 27%. In other words, the average yearly increase in sales.
I also need to make one final point before ending the post. If CIG either releases Squadron 42 in 2024, or begins selling pre-orders beginning with CitizenCon in October, sales of 1 million to 1.5 million units should make up for any revenue shortfalls in CIG's traditional revenue sources.
How Much Does CIG Need To Sell In 2024
nosygamer.blogspot.com
TLDR:
They guesstimate:
- 2023 saw the biggest one year loss in CIG's 12-year history: $18.4 mil
- CIG will need to continue their average 27% growth in sales over 2024 (assuming a headcount freeze, continued wage increases due to inflation, and new marketing costs for SQ42).
---
Bit of fun anyway
(I like the bit where they decide that Turbulent's acquisition was essentially free, because chancers like Benoit would totally accept future SQ42 receipts instead
)
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So, the priorities will still focused on making money, pretending progress and inventing excuses to push further away any kind of releasable product.
As for SQ42, they've entered the polishing phase they say, so they allegedly made to the 90% requiring 10% of time and effort. Now they just need to get to the finish line beyond the 10% requiring 90% of time and effort. Yay!
As for SQ42, they've entered the polishing phase they say, so they allegedly made to the 90% requiring 10% of time and effort. Now they just need to get to the finish line beyond the 10% requiring 90% of time and effort. Yay!
So SQ404 is only five years from release?
I would rather assume Turbulent took the deal to make bank on the orders and earn increased wages and bail and make a new start. Some people look to be something more than contractor for projects in dev hell. The name Turbulent is gonna be spent anyway when the whole thing blows up, but more likely it's gonna be used for scapegoat so CIG can push the hot air and carry this limp noodle of a game into next year.So some blogger tried to fathom CIG's financial comings and goings...
How Much Does CIG Need To Sell In 2024
TLDR:
They guesstimate:
And conjecture mightily that:
- 2023 saw the biggest one year loss in CIG's 12-year history: $18.4 mil
- CIG will need to continue their average 27% growth in sales over 2024 (assuming a headcount freeze, continued wage increases due to inflation, and new marketing costs for SQ42).
---
Bit of fun anyway
(I like the bit where they decide that Turbulent's acquisition was essentially free, because chancers like Benoit would totally accept future SQ42 receipts instead
It will never launch is my projection.My only projection would be:
Ain't no way SQ42 is launching this year.
(Shocking right
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
There are so many questionable things in that "analysis". Starting with the fact the guy just accepts at face value any and all figures from CIG´s completely irregular financial blog. Turbulents valuation at 3 x times revenue is also highly suspect. You usually use multiples of profits for a quick rule of thumb, but not revenue/turnover, to valuate a company. Revenue/turnover, with a few exceptions, are pretty much useless for valuation, especially if when a company profit margins can be tiny or even negative.So some blogger tried to fathom CIG's financial comings and goings...
How Much Does CIG Need To Sell In 2024
TLDR:
They guesstimate:
And conjecture mightily that:
- 2023 saw the biggest one year loss in CIG's 12-year history: $18.4 mil
- CIG will need to continue their average 27% growth in sales over 2024 (assuming a headcount freeze, continued wage increases due to inflation, and new marketing costs for SQ42).
---
Bit of fun anyway
(I like the bit where they decide that Turbulent's acquisition was essentially free, because chancers like Benoit would totally accept future SQ42 receipts instead
I don't think he understands business development.
But, but, we are so close! Bishop's Speech and the Morrow Tour and those player-executing Vandulls must just be right around the corner, any day now!
Not quite, the ratio price to sales is used to gauge companies and their market values. You take your analysis of all the multiples you can make and then cross-reference it to a industry peer group. Look for deviations and that. When Tesla went public with barely any big production I used big car manufacturer quotas to construct a "what if" scenario that put it into the peer group, estimating it's revenue in case the plans went in effect, assuming plausible profit margins, added a bit of tech bonus and came up with a forecast. That price was the baseline for a couple investment cycles and for a couple years it served well as estimate.
Often you don't have a profit when you analyse an early company. You gotta use what you have - but in the end the biggest question is: Does this make sense? Can it be pulled off?
Any multiple does if you have decent peer group and a somewhat steady business. Like rail. I loved my choochoos. No idea about software services. I believe the public major game studios had some kind of drive to present a more linearised income and revenue statement by means of gtenerating steadier revenues via mtx. So that irregular stuff would be the valuation problem in this sector. Small studios that depend on landing their sales targets - it's like subsistence farming. Of course there is contract work and that can take you out the equation when the contract become the main livelihood.
Not wanting y'all to bore I have more door action in this terrible game. This time is a two way door that gets what it had coming in the end.
But seriously, I usually take the babe version in these games to look at the rearside or enjoy the female voice act, but Arthur Morgan just hits the nail in the head. It's damn good voice acting overall in RDR2. Why would you play SC when you can play RDR2? It's even online if you need that feeling being smug because you killed a unsuspecting player in uninventive ways.
THIS is the standard. THIS is what CIG will never achieve even closely.
But seriously, I usually take the babe version in these games to look at the rearside or enjoy the female voice act, but Arthur Morgan just hits the nail in the head. It's damn good voice acting overall in RDR2. Why would you play SC when you can play RDR2? It's even online if you need that feeling being smug because you killed a unsuspecting player in uninventive ways.
THIS is the standard. THIS is what CIG will never achieve even closely.
So some blogger tried to fathom CIG's financial comings and goings...
How Much Does CIG Need To Sell In 2024
TLDR:
They guesstimate:
And conjecture mightily that:
- 2023 saw the biggest one year loss in CIG's 12-year history: $18.4 mil
- CIG will need to continue their average 27% growth in sales over 2024 (assuming a headcount freeze, continued wage increases due to inflation, and new marketing costs for SQ42).
---
Bit of fun anyway
(I like the bit where they decide that Turbulent's acquisition was essentially free, because chancers like Benoit would totally accept future SQ42 receipts instead
Don't worry. If funding dries up they can just release SQ42 and finish SC based on the income from that! Chris said so many years ago!
You have to work with the information you have.
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Oh I agree revenues are also used, but generally in combination to plenty other information, including peer group benchmarks. Which this guy can’t and doesn’t do. But if a single type of multiple is to be used to eyeball a company valuation then profits, as imperfect a measure as it can be, is where it is at. I wouldn’t dare put a price tag in a company unless I can see their profits in some way and reasonably project those a few years forward. I don’t think profits are available publicly for Turbulent, nor is their cost structure or cash flow, and so just using revenue to estimate value is going to carry a huge error margin.
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Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Sure, but that guy goes on to straight making things up such as the conditions of the Turbulent deal with regards to SQ42 future sales. If you have a minute just read his dream.txt piece about why SQ42 was removed from sale… it’s better science fiction than SC lore I tell you!
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Person who understands game development discusses the SC project for 10 or so minutes (from 5h20m51s timestamp)
Source: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2059640121?t=05h20m51s