I know you guys want us to fight but this is getting crazy. This will make it dead easy for the larger Powers to obliterate smaller ones. Also, it doesn't seem you fixed the completely unbalanced mined minerals merits/system score we currently have. Yes, it's dropped by 35% but so does every other positive action (ie: trading rares) which would keep things unbalanced.
Alright, ready to be corrected if I messed something up above. Go!
Remember that undermining faces the System Strength Penalty and Beyond Frontline Penalty for a system, which can be up to a 60% combined penalty (and very easily 35% or more) - so this only makes undermining easier than reinforcement, all else equal, for a Standard:Standard system.
On top of that, there's still "not all else is equal".
1) As you note
I'm a law-abiding CMDR and most undermining activities available to me (read: fun) are illegal and incur fines and bounties.
... it's still going to be the case that reinforcement activities are generally intrinsically easier, safer, more suited to applying your Power's rank bonuses to, and generally more possible to do "while existing" in your own Power's space, rather than undermining that will take a specific effort and plan. Giving a slight relative boost to the baseline score for undermining probably won't go anywhere near far enough to compensate for that, but it's a step in the right direction.
So far the ratio of reinforcement to undermining, galaxy-wide, has been between 10:1 and 15:1. This is not going to change that to anywhere near even.
2) There's still no strategic incentive to Undermine.
- you don't directly benefit in any way from another Power being smaller
- you only very lightly benefit from your own Power being bigger (unless you support Delaine, or your Power is below 100 systems for a trade-focused power or down to its HQ only for a combat-focused one)
- there are thousands of Acquisition targets available to each Power to gain territory without contest (whereas gaining territory via Undermining involves first Undermining the target, then Acquiring the system yourself, all against likely opposition from the other side)
3) There's still the
player tendency to focus on defence first rather than offence and be very risk-averse and loss-averse. So there's a strong chance that many player groups will respond to this by saying "we have to do even more reinforcement in case we get attacked" and therefore spending about a third less time undermining - which the 5% boost won't compensate for at all.
(See also: there are various worries about undermining now becoming overpowered; reinforcement has been obviously and clearly overpowered for months without any complaints at all. The "undermining data snipe" gets a lot more worry than the outright exploits possible for reinforcing systems)
Ultimately, though...
I'm concerned about the negativity aspect being given to PowerPlay.
Powerplay is supposed to be the game's Competitive Feature™. It's not supposed to be about 12 Powers peacefully expanding their own influence on a first-come first-served basis, it's supposed to be about the 12 most ambitious and powerful politicians in the galaxy struggling for supremacy.
So for that to work it needs to encourage players to attack the positions of other Powers. That shouldn't be seen as a negative thing - people can still approach that competition sportingly and with good humour - but it's a feature about competition rather than cooperation. (Colonisation seems to be providing plenty of scope for cooperation, peaceful building up, etc. though the "first come first served" aspect is of course causing some contention)
It's going to take a
lot more changes than this to make Powerplay into an actual competition and 12-way brawl, which Frontier know. And there's certainly as you say more balancing and debugging work to be done to get features more even in terms of merit generation per time. But having sold Powerplay as the competitive feature they need to try to get that competition moving on a big picture level.
This will make it dead easy for the larger Powers to obliterate smaller ones.
This change alone is
far too small to do that. The smallest Power still has 127 million control points worth of strength (87 million of which are in Fortified or Stronghold systems)
Total weekly undermining across all 12 powers is just 3-4 million CP a week - and that couldn't all be piled onto the weakest power without getting heavy Beyond Frontline Penalties - so even if this change were to encourage all undermining-active players for all 11 other Powers to strike down Torval (unlikely!), it'd take them over half a year to do it even with the new 5% bonus.
It's something which Frontier will need to consider as they introduce more incentives to attack, certainly.