It's a tricky one. I agree with all of Jmanis' points that the CG mechanism is massively outdated, clunky, superseded in multiple ways by newer game mechanics like Powerplay, Trailblazers, the former Thargoid War, etc.
On the other hand, despite all of that, nothing else succeeds in getting players together into one system and avoiding the problem that the player base is spread across 20,000 of them. (Er. 70,000 of them and still rising at about a thousand a week. Ah well.)
I think
Frontier would quite happily not do them and they've tried to get rid of them on multiple occasions with them being almost entirely on hold for most of 2019/2020 and very limited in number for 2023/2024 - but nothing else seems to have that same effect or succeed as well at bringing players together.
Yes, now there's Trailblazers to build stations, but that's not the point.
It
kind of is the point, though. Back when a CG was the only way to get an extra station or two, that was an exciting goal. Now you can get one personally for less tonnage than you might haul to a CG, a CG to set up a new station has to have something really special about it.
So that really leaves "plot events" as the driver for them, and Frontier haven't had a significant team on those since their redundancy round (and not really since the end of the NMLA storyline - which was excellent and included some very creative CGs! - in 2022). Unless Frontier go back to having a properly funded plot team (and they should!) CGs are always going to be a bit aimless.
Nowadays, there's no real incentive to progress CG's
And yet people still do. Despite the rewards being available at top 100%, the relative curve of contributions for the higher tiers looks basically the same as it always has, and participation levels are at a historically high level. Frontier have actually provided a nice controlled experiment here!
The recent Panther CG pair (rewards at 100%, including an engineered point defense module) had
- a total of 16,634 participants
- total tonnage 84 megatonnes
- top 75% tier at around 7% of the mean delivery (340t)
- top 50% tier at around 30% of the mean delivery (1500t)
- top 25% tier at around 125% of the mean delivery (6400t)
Going back to the NMLA storyline years (and going pre-Odyssey on that!) to this CG:
https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threads/deliver-food-to-support-the-marlinists-trade.563123/ which offered the
same point defense module, and also had a station-boosting plot-related goal for a popular NPC group
- a total of 8,718 participants
- total tonnage 55 megatonnes
- top 75% tier at around 20% of the mean delivery (1300t)
- top 50% tier at around 50% of the mean delivery (3750t)
- top 25% tier at around 125% of the mean delivery (8100t)
The people doing "top 25%" deliveries are still doing them at much the same rate they always have. The top 75% band in CGs has always been pretty low (not quite "1t" but very often "one trip in a T-9" / "one HazRES bounty run" / etc) where less than an hour's effort in a reasonably optimised ship will secure it comfortably.
The newer CG model is getting historically very high participation numbers
and tonnages even when compared with CGs taking place in the run-up to Odyssey when hype and player activity numbers overall were even stronger than today.
How many of the last 50 CG's have been actually completed
Several of them have been on track to complete on their initial goals - the recent war CG with ground CZs, for example - or for now, this current one. Frontier have adjusted the targets and added extra tiers to ensure it lasts the week. It's easy to make a CG which completes - just set the target, which Frontier have full discretion on, to be relatively low - but it only really feels interesting if it's rushing to the final tier in the early hours of Thursday morning, not if it's done by the Friday evening, and that's much more about Frontier guessing perfectly first time on the target [1] versus the participation levels than anything actually under meaningful player control.
Anyway, to answer your literal question, six of the last 50 have been allowed to reach their final target, with another six which have just aged out of the "last 50" part of the same set of CGs as the oldest of the six.
[1] Which is mainly a matter of luck. If any
players have a "well obviously this CG will get X total tonnage and Y participants" model which doesn't require waiting until at least a couple of days into the CG to give reasonably accurate numbers they're keeping quiet about it, and Frontier with their fuller data obviously don't have one either.
No, it is not. Top 75% for a second set of engineered cargo racks is by no means a pay-to-win requirement. By the end of the 4-week CG I imagine it'll still be less than 5 trips to reach it. For comparison, the previous CG (2 weeks) only needed a single cutter delivery for top 75%.
Top 75% for a trade CG rarely exceeds 2000t, but there are a bunch of things on this one which mean it'll likely end up higher.
1) The Panther is at least 50% faster on deliveries than any previous ship. That probably won't affect the top 75% band quite as much because lots of people won't be using it yet, but it will put some upward pressure on it nonetheless.
2) A strong reward keyed to a threshold tends to boost it (the record is almost 6000t for pre-engineered FSDs and the cargo racks do seem popular)
3) It's a four week CG which probably won't multiply it by four (because it will increase the breadth of participants and the "just do 1t" ones aren't going to do 4t because they have four times as long) but will boost it a bit
It's certainly possible that it'll end up somewhere above 10k after four weeks. Still reachable without needing the Panther, of course - that's just a fairly normal "top 25%" target for pre-Panther 1-week CGs, and well within "top 50%" hauled a week at a time for four weeks.