Maybe this deserves a separate thread, but for the long term health of open play, I think that there are a few topics that bear discussion. I've only just recently started playing the game, and have maybe ~300k in total assets, so I am not speaking from experience, but rather trying to provoke thoughtful discussion. Wall of text incoming! (You've just dropped from hyperdrive in system

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TLDR: It would be interesting if knowledgable players filled out the 5 point form below for discussion
First it seems to me that for each 'side' in this debate, there are several things that need filling in (which again I don't have the expertise for):
Player Style: [ Piracy | Trader | Other]
1 - sunk costs:
2 - per mission investment costs:
3 - re-buy + fines cost in case of failure:
4 - profit realized in case of success:
5 - Probability of success:
The first is of course cost into buying of the ship and related modules to pursue the play style (piracy vs. trading, you could throw in mining or exploring for that matter -- it's an effort to get some structure in risk vs reward). Second is costs to go out and "do a mission" whether that is costs involved for ammo + incidentals like repairs / fuel or whatever -- for traders this would also include the investment in goods. I don't think that valuing the goods as "after profit" valuation fits here, but it could be up for discussion -- I'm not an expert here. Also could include time costs on "finding" a good trading route, though with multiple runs being posted here and other places on the internet, not sure how fair that is.
Third is, of course what does it cost to fail utterly? What would it cost for partial failure? (trader dumps cargo, pirate cuts and runs because the cops show up or whatever). Fourth is of course what is the reward in case of success? For piracy this is of course pure profit (they don't have much in terms of per mission investment costs). For trading, this is the margin on the goods sold. Fifth, a trader has a very high probability of complete success. He doesn't have to hunt down a trader for x period of time (hours? not? Pirates help me out here, how hard is it to find someone to rob?) but rather has steady employment. It's not 100% as he may be forced to drop some cargo, which is a partial success.
Zeeman has a start at estimating profit above, but I'm getting an initial feeling from this thread that the risk / reward is very much in favor of piracy at the moment, and I'm looking for numbers / wisdom from the community to prove or disprove that.
(As a side conversation, it might be interesting to discuss what is an appropriate fee / scheme for traders to pay for escort services that won't drive them to solo play as being too costly, while at the same time introducing another valid play style).
At the end of the day, we can throw some numbers against the wall here, and calculate some profit per unit of TIME invested, as that seems to be one of the big fears driving traders to solo play -- not that they don't have adequate reward from trading, but rather the risks in terms not just of money, but of time spent recovering are not in line with what they consider
fun. It is in the pirate's interest that they don't drive the trader to solo play. The solution shouldn't be only "lock people into online". Even if as some people advocate, that FD puts up a wall between solo and online so that one cannot switch back and forth, if the costs of player piracy are too great, they'll take their ball elsewhere (to solo) to play where it is more fun for them. This serves only to hurt online play, and so cannot be the only part of the solution. "Just lock the sheep in with the wolves, and all will be well" isn't the answer here, I think. It is in the trader's interest (in terms of fun) that the challenge of player piracy exists. It adds to the fun for some traders. It adds to the variety of play styles possible in the game. It adds to community. It makes the game healthier.
Ok I've blathered on enough. Maybe in the future once I've played for a much longer time I'll be able to pay forward
I'll try and answer the above question to the best of my ability with my style of play - keeping in mind that I have not been keeping notes, but basically off memory/experience...
Style of play - Other (kind of a jack of [almost] all trades. I trade, I bounty hunt, I explore, and I smuggle. I enjoy smuggling greatly, and my ideal gameplay style would be smuggling "randomly found" goods, or smuggling goods that are legal in one system to another system where they are not.
This really should pay better than it does (for legally obtained illegal cargo, not for "stolen" cargo), and it should also pay better still at regular stations where scanning is likely, as apposed to outposts where it's no trouble at all. I like the idea that I may also be a good target for pirates whilst smuggling, it adds to the possible danger, along with the cops...
1 - sunk costs: currently, my ship is a Cobra Mk III with about 4-5m spent on upgrades. Most of that has been sunk into A grade power plant and distribution, Thrusters, fuel scoop and FS drive. Shield is Class C (for weight saving purposes, not for cash saving) with a grade 2 pulse laser, grade 2 multi cannon, and 2x grade 1 burst lasers (currently playing around with my weapons, still working on the best combo for me...). I also have a wake shift scanner, and a KWS. I may get an interdictor too, at some stage, but I am more looking at an A class exploration scanner thingy, as my trading is usually rares, and the reason I trade rares is the exploration in the 150+ Ly between trade systems - I'll often plot routes through all unknown systems (or as many as possible) to boost exploration income. This, for my is why I like rares trading, it's actually fun when mixed with exploration, and the risk of losing it all towards the end of the journey is quite exciting. Looking for human players when arriving into my destination system is the first thing I do, to try and make sure I avoid them!
2 - Per mission investment costs: Depends - bounty hunting - very little. I don't often get hull damage, let alone explode, the Cobra is good like that. When I trade rares, I usually sink between 30k-80k cr into my 36T of cargo space.
For smuggling, again, no investment, just what I find scraping around USS's after I have finished my bounty hunting run. Having a few thousand cr worth or illegal goods also makes entry into the station to claim a bounty a little more fun. Get it right, or gain a bounty and a good blasting the by the station. Quite an incentive to get good at getting in unscanned!
3 - re-buy + fines cost in case of failure: My current re-buy is about 300K, if I lose my cargo, it's usually about 100k max (the Cobra cargo hold ain't that big), an dnormally, a 200cr fine is about as bad as it gets for the odd authority ship that decides to cut across about 5m in front of my whilst I'm blasting all weapons at a Wanted ship. I have had one "lose everything" situation, when the scan finished just as I got through the letterbox with a 200cr bounty (didn't realise the station itself was doing the scan, and didn't make the effort to hurry my docking along). So I learned that lesson.
I've normally got about 500k-1m cr in the bank for "screw ups". I'd say accidental boosts into the station wall have been my number 1 death dealer, usually when getting used to a new joystick setup... I try to keep my gear down now until I exit the letterbox.
4 - profit realized in case of success: -
Bounty hunting - 30k-150k per outing. Depends on the system.
Smuggling - usually lucky to break more than 20k - as it's unusual to get more than one or two of anything in a USS anymore, and the only time I make a worthwhile amount is when some trade ship at a nav point drops everything trying to escape. Scooping up expensive goodies under the Feds noses, then smuggling that into a station and claiming a 100K plus bounty - that's fun!
Exploration - I usually do this on rares runs, and I find I normally make 20k-40k in exploration data by the end of the trip - though I only sell data for system more than 70Ly away, so I always have a little bit left over to see elsewhere.
5 - Probability of success:
Bounty hunting - Hard to define success for this, but I've only died once for being stupid, long ago... But it's highly variable, and there are plenty of times when 1000cr Sidey's are all you get. Usually 30k-150k earnings - zero investments, and very rarely more than 2000cr in repairs, if any at all. If I'm below 95% shields, I clipped a cop, and decided to keep fighting for a few more bounties whilst under cop fire at the same time.
Smuggling - 100% - haven't been caught yet, I'm quite good at getting in fast (I got my class A thrusters for a reason). Not very lucrative though, unless you get very lucky with a wanted cargo ship at a Nav beacon.
Rares trading - very profitable - usually sell my 30k-80k purchase price goods for a total of 650k-750k. Add in the 20k-40k of exploration data, and it's quite a nice earner, and fun. Though I do spend a lot of time flying around and scanning new systems, so it's not like I'm making that in an hour or something, usually take me 2-3hrs to do a rares trip - but, I have fun doing it. Success - 100% - have not been interdicted (by anything worth worrying about, anyway) yet.
Exploration - Also hard to define as a percentage, but I've always been able to sell my trade data, and have yet to be killed before I can sell it since the game has been in full release. I made most of my screw ups in Beta/Gamma.
Overall, my strategy is usually to combine two of my style - bounty hunting with smuggling of "found" goods, or trading rares and selling discovery data from along the way.
I''m not making huge amount of cash (and I have spent a lot of time in Lugh making no money at all just to try and help out with that little experiment), but I have been having a lot of fun - which is the point, I guess.
I quite like the idea of potential escort missions, trade ship convoys with armed escorts, requiring pirates to have group-co-ordinated methods of pirating. But there REALLY needs to be an excellent in game comms system for this. I'm not talking an add on like Teamspeak or whatever, it won't work if your enemy/prey is not using it.
Z...