General / Off-Topic Scottish Independence

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30 years ago Thatcher destroyed mining and steelworking communities all over Scotland...

...and England. And Wales. Just thought I'd mention it... in the interests of completeness you understand... not taking sides...

I'm not so sure 30 years is too long. Once per generation sounds about right to me.
 
A article on BBC News announces:

New Scottish Parliament powers Bill published

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30915457

Following the sort of report to be expected from the State media, there are responses. over 200 so far.

As always, the responses are so much more interesting that the article.

The UK is tearing itself apart.

The comments are the Internet.

The bill itself... not sure. It sounds like Scotland is to be asked to fund the welfare system, but without additional funding for that via Barnett. :S

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I'm not so sure 30 years is too long. Once per generation sounds about right to me.

I think you have to take these things as and when it's appropriate to have them. An enormous amount can happen in 30 years.
 
I can only reiterate.

Demographics taken in the context you have made are simply interesting. One house has 2 adults and 3 children, the house across the road has 2 adults and three children. Are the two the same? Can any conclusions be drawn form this information?
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Demographics at a population level are important to an economy. The classic case was that of post war Britain. There was a higher proportion of working adults (the baby boomers) and a low proportion of pensioners (who didn't live very long). This made funding for health and pensions easy, lots of tax payers to pay for a bit of health (young people get ill less than old ones) and some pensions (a few old people living 5 years after retirement isn't too expensive). Now we (both Scotland and the rUK) are heading to a situation where there are fewer working age people whose taxes will have to support a lot more retired people, who not only have the gall to get ill more (kidding) but also will live longer (so cost more).
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Clearly, we will have to agree to disagree on this point! :)
 
.... 30 years ago Thatcher destroyed mining and steelworking communities all over Scotland....QUOTE] And the rest of the UK heavy industry! The sad fact is although Thatcher was the one in power, and clearly didn't do enough to "soften the blow", those industries were on the decline anyway. Look around Europe, heavy industries like mining, steelmaking, ship building are all shadow of what they once were.
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Imagine Thatcher had never happened, Labour won the 79 election and the subsequent ones. Even then, given the state of the world today (rise of China, climate change etc), can you honestly see coal mines and steel mills still banging away? Thatcher may have accelerated the decline, and certainly unnecessary hardship was caused, but may of those industries would have died anyway, shifting to lower cost, lower environmental and health standard economies.
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Here's a strange titbit though (and it surprised me when I found out), the UK is the 6th largest exporter of manufactured goods in the world. Clearly we are behind China, the USA, Japan and Germany, but after the "big 4" the UK and France battle it out for 5 and 6 swapping back and forth.
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6th! That's not bad :) look up at the skies, pretty much 1 out of every 2 planes you see up there have engines designed and built in the UK
 
From earlier on my proposal on reorganising the UK, hopefully to give the advantages of being big and small at the same time.
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Surfinjo - as someone who is clearly not happy with the UK in it's current form, what do you think? Would be alot harder to go to war with this set up.... Note the last lines about national vetos
Juniper - As someone more in favour of Scottish independence, what do you think? This outline (and it is a rough sketch, the carving up of the exact powers would have to be tweaked) might require some currently Scottish powers to "go back" but would also give alot of powers to the "Nations", primarily income tax.
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If I've been unclear, ask and I'll try to clarify rather than us arguing over a misunderstanding.
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The goal was to make a nice neat system, fair to all nations (in terms of everyone gets the same powers and responsibilities) and comprehensible, with clear lines of division and responsibility
TLDR
  • 4 National Parliaments to handle National matters
  • National govs formed from the majority MPs in National Parliament
  • 4 National Parliaments come together (like a giant Power Ranger robot) to form the Union Parliament to handle Union matters
  • Union gov formed from majority of MPs
  • Tax raising powers and spending responsibilities are split between them

The Long Version

4 Nations, 1 Union

MP's are elected to represent constituencies as per now (or maybe another way). Ideally there are slightly more MP's per head for Scotland, NI and Wales than for England to give a slight counter balance to the population advantage of England.

Each nation has a parliament made up of the MP whose constituencies are in the nation. A national government (with First Minister etc) is formed by the majority party as per now. The national parliaments sit in the current national parliament/assembly seat. England may need a new English Parliament site, say Birmingham (based on it being big city in the middle).

All the MPs also represent their constituencies in the Union parliament (probably still in London). A Union government (with Prime Minister etc) is formed from the majority party in the Union. This may be a different party from the national govs and may be a coalition.

How it would work

The responsibilities and tax raising powers of the parliaments are divided.

To help I've included two pie charts from wikipedia, they are for slightly different years but it's indicative of the current gov spend/tax structure and it's the % I'm looking at. On the left is taxes, on the right spending
500px-UK_taxes.svg.png
500px-UKExpenditure.svg.png
The Union parliment keeps all the responsibilities and tax powers it has now except for
  • Income tax - 29%
  • Corporation tax - 9%
Total tax rising powers of Union parliament = ~60% current
Total tax rising powers of National parliaments = ~40% current

The Union parliament is responsible for and pays for everything it does now except
  • Education
  • Social protection
  • Transport*
Total spending commitments of the Union Parliament = ~60%
Total spending commitments of the National Parliaments = ~40%

*For large infrastructure projects, across nations, the Union parliament would be in charge, and the costs split in an agreed manner between the participating nations. So Heathrow expansion, would be out of English Parliament budget, A Rail line from London to Glasgow would be split between Scotland and England.

The reason I have left health care off the list (I could have had it in place of one of the others) is that I believe that the core healthcare across the Union should be uniform. Nations could do stuff (as Scotland already does) like subsidise prescriptions out of it's own pocket.

Although the National parliaments have responsibility for Education and Social protection, the Union would set down some basic standards, so all Union citizens will get certain things in Education and social protection guaranteed. The funds for these would come from central Union taxes.

This way, National Parliaments can set income tax levels and "curves" how they see fit, Scotland may have a more aggressive regime at the top end and tax corps and businesses more, whilst England could pursue a different regime.

All taxes would be collected by HMRC and then "block grants" to the national parliaments given, based on the take from their constituents.

So a person in England would pay all the same Union taxes (NI, VAT etc) that a person in Scotland would pay, but their tax code would be different (due to the income tax regime being different), so they might end up paying less (or more) tax.

When a person went to collect benefits, their place of residence (as determined by the electoral roll) would be used determine their benefits under the rules of the appropriate Nation i.e. registered as living in Scotland - pay Scottish taxes, get Scottish benefits.

Some problems

One of the disadvantages of this is that the MPs will have to wear two hats and be dashing back and forth between London and their National parliament. One possible solution to this would be to allow votes on Union matters to be cast either at London or at a National parliament.

This system may result in National and Union parliaments being opposed to one and other. Realistically speaking, England will tend to dominate the Union parliament, although with the tweaking of the number of MPs from the smaller nations this could be slightly counterbalanced. An additional counterbalance would be for some areas (e.g. use of Union troops outside the Union borders) to have a National government veto attached i.e. the vote is only passed if all 4 National Govs vote "yes".
 
And the rest of the UK heavy industry! The sad fact is although Thatcher was the one in power, and clearly didn't do enough to "soften the blow", those industries were on the decline anyway. Look around Europe, heavy industries like mining, steelmaking, ship building are all shadow of what they once were.

Imagine Thatcher had never happened, Labour won the 79 election and the subsequent ones. Even then, given the state of the world today (rise of China, climate change etc), can you honestly see coal mines and steel mills still banging away? Thatcher may have accelerated the decline, and certainly unnecessary hardship was caused, but may of those industries would have died anyway, shifting to lower cost, lower environmental and health standard economies.

I'm sure it would have happened eventually but the way it was done wasn't right. There was also the poll tax with Scotland being used as a guinea pig there again a few years later.

My point was just that 30 years is clearly too long to wait as even in my area - an area that was decimated by layoffs in coal - voted narrowly for No. That would never have happened 30 or 20 years ago. Probably not even 10 years ago as we were waging an illegal war (which the vast majority of Scots disagreed with) in Iraq.

Incidentally the whole "costing millions" argument is a joke as well. The cost of the referendum was placed at around ~£13 million. Guess how much the House of Lords costs every year?
£87 million.
 
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I think you have to take these things as and when it's appropriate to have them. An enormous amount can happen in 30 years.

I agree - up to a point. What I would say though is that the circumstances would need to be properly exceptional to warrant referenda along the lines some have suggested. I'm not so sure the situation at hand qualifies (though I don't doubt you and others would disagree on that point ;)). We can debate how long such intervals should be, but in the absence of the above-mentioned exceptional circumstances I can't help but feel that 10 years is altogether too short.

As always, just my opinion (in this case borne of my general loathing of politicians of all shades, who without exception I routinely tar with the same brush).
 
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I'm sure it would have happened eventually but the way it was done wasn't right.
I'd agree, although i'm not sure given the power and mind set of the unions at the time, that there was any "right" way it could have been achieved.
There was also the poll tax with Scotland being used as a guinea pig there again a few years later.
I'm only just old enough to remember the poll tax. Looking back, i don't see an intrinsic issue with taxing per person (with appropriate safeguards for the vulnerable etc) rather than using the value of your residence on an arbitrary date. Not to say either are great (i think i favour a local income tax) but one is no worse than the other. Obviously there will be winners and losers switching between systems but i've not seen an argument as to why one is better than the other (there might be one, if someone can show me). Of course any change in tax regime is often unpopular.

10 years ago as we were waging an illegal war (which the vast majority of Scots disagreed with)
not just the scots
 
That £46 billion (I think it's actually £47.6 billion) figure you used for Scotlands income doesn't include Business Rates or Council Tax btw, both of which combined would likely cover the entire £5 billion deficit.

_79316925_scotland_taxes_624_v5.gif
 
Why do we need the union?

It was created at a time of insecurity in Europe when it made sense for there to be lo possible land borders to defend. Sea borders, at that time were easier to defend, especially with the then English, soon to be British navy.

But these issues are no longer valid.

Boarders of any kind are not very important.

So, why do we need a UK union?

I creates friction and jealously.

It allows governments to divide us. Thatcher for example.

It is clear the states of the UK are capable of governing themselves. So claims that we need the UK because we are not capable of governing ourselves without making a mess of it are a nonsense.

It's been a fun ride, true, it's been a barrel of laughs. But all good parties come to an end. Pleading to nostalgia and Conservationism are kinda pointless

So, why do we need the UK.
 
That £46 billion (I think it's actually £47.6 billion) figure you used for Scotlands income doesn't include Business Rates or Council Tax btw, both of which combined would likely cover the entire £5 billion deficit.

View attachment 10130
Hummmm, interesting point. The next questions are, how much is CT/biz rates and was local gov spend (my understanding is local gov is the recipient of CT/biz, hence why it was outside of the income) included in my spend figure?
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My suspicion is that the GERS figures exclude local gov entirely (i.e. from income and expend) in which case my original calcs would stand as local gov would represent a separate closed system, which would still have to function in iScot.
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I will look into it and adjust accordingly :)
 
http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn09.pdf

Based on that, £5 billion won't be far off for both. You may well be right about the council tax, hard to tell.
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Good find, from that they estimate about 25bn CT raised in UK. Given Scotland has a pop of ~8% that would indicate ~2bn raised in Scotland.
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As for biz rates, that document estimated around 27bn, however the splitting of that might be more difficult as Scotland has it's own regime plus some of the rates go to central gov (so could be included in the GERS figures already) and some stay at local level. Even so if we made as simple split like we did with CT we'd get biz rates of around 2.5bn from Scotland.
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This would give a rough total of ~5bn not included in the GERS income.
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I've not been able to find a definitive explanation as to whether the GERS expenditure data for Scotland includes or excludes the local gov spending that the 5bn local gov income covers.
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My gut feeling is that the whole local gov income/expenditure is excluded from the calculation.
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What it boils down to is that (excluding oil entirely) Scotland's public finances are broadly similar to the rUK's in terms of %GDP taken by tax, % deficit of spending etc. In both cases getting rid of the deficit (again excluding oil) would be hard, imagine trying to keep the same standard of living on 10% less income! iScot would have the advantage of a big oil income to help it run a surplus, but this advantage only exists when the oil prices are high, right now the oil revenues, whilst welcome, would not be enough to pull down the deficit.
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Interestingly I came across this from the GERS.
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Scot_GDP_Bal.jpg
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From what I can see, the purple and green lines are important, both representing the UK(100% oil) and Scotland(100% scottish oil). In the 80's Scotland would have had a huge positive from the oil, but since the 90's other than brief blips, which coincide with the high oil price spikes just before the 2008 crash and then from 2009 when oil prices were again high, Scotland's deficit including oil is higher than the UKs as a whole.
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Remember I'm not saying iScot couldn't work and would crash and burn. I'm saying I think the YES assertion that Scots would be better off financially (i.e. would be able to run better services for less taxation) in iScot was dependent on high oil prices.
 
http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn09.pdf

Based on that, £5 billion won't be far off for both. You may well be right about the council tax, hard to tell.

No, he isn't right at all. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/G...99/CoreRevenueFunding/Revenue-Funding-Streams

And sorry to say, your figures, as interesting as they may seem are more historical than prospective.

If we look at the contribution from business, it totals 20.7bn. But one of the taxes is comparatively modern, VAT. If the same calculations had been based upon the previous sales tax, the figures would have been very different, largely because many of Scotland's products, food, alcohol, tourism, at that time, attracted higher levels of sales tax, than others. If the taxation system were to be reformed, for example, abolishing all business taxes, other than VAT, the contribution form business would be very different.

Moreover, a similar reform of incomes tax, making it flat rate, would attract huge numbers of high income earners to Scotland, allowing for an enormous expansion in the total size of the Scottish economy.

Then there is the every mysterious section of income, others.

I'm sorry to say, this obsession some seem to have, for treating economics in terms of arithmetic seems t be encouraged by the Torys and Labour especially.

It is utterly false, I'm afraid.
 
Why do we need the union?
Good question. I guess it comes down to personal philosophy. At some point humans have to group together,
  • tiny (a family)
  • small (a tribe or village)
  • medium (city states or regions)
  • large (nations)
  • very large (federation of nations)
Of course some places blur the lines is the USA and the EU are roughly comparable but the USA is a tight federation of medium nations, whilst the EU is a loose federation of large nations, some of whom are federations of smaller regions (Italy, Germany).
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Essentially, everyone has to make a decision as to where they think the "sweet spot" is. Small has advantages in that an individual's voice can be heard, large has advantages with being able to do bigger things. I might have a much better chance of being heard at the parish council, but the parish council isn't going to be able to mount a mission to mars (not unless the allotments can put there)!
It was created at a time of insecurity in Europe when it made sense for there to be lo possible land borders to defend. Sea borders, at that time were easier to defend, especially with the then English, soon to be British navy.

But these issues are no longer valid.
Sadly, I think that the unstable times may be starting again.

Boarders of any kind are not very important.
As a snowboard instructor I find that offensive! ;)
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I wish that were true. Unfortunately people like to live differently from each other. Whilst I am happy to live and let live, at some point people's personal preferences have to be transformed into public laws. For example should women have to wear a veil/headscarf? Personally, I don't care, if some one wants to wear a head scarf, a veil, a burka, a Guy Fawkes mask then fine. If they don't then also fine. However, some out there may insist that any head covering with a religious theme should be forbidden in public, whilst other think that wearing a veil/burka, headscarf should be mandatory for women in public. At some point we have to draw a geographical line and say "on this side, we have decided veil=compulsory and on your side veil=optional". This goes for all sorts of things, gun ownership, clipping of dogs ears, producing fois gras, topless bathing, gay marriage, drink driving limits, healthcare provision and all the little things that add up to differences between cultures and nations.
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In an ideal world I could live and associate with likeminded people and not have anything to do with those that we disagreed with. I may have more in common with someone from California or Kenya than I do with the person who lives next door to me (having met some of the "retired brigadier" types in the village, I can defiantly say we are not on the same page on a lot of matters - "the gays!", "those bloody foreign types", "bloody good thrashing is what they need"):)

So, why do we need a UK union?

I creates friction and jealously.

You will always get friction in any group, family holidays are a great example ("I don't want to see the lousy ruins, I want to go to the water park"). Our local village is in the middle of trying to get a planning document agreed, the arguments and accusations are a sight to behold, it's like game of thrones but with less sex and more biscuits.

It allows governments to divide us. Thatcher for example.
Whilst Thatcher was divisive, no government is ever going to be able to represent all of the people all of the time. A government's job is to arbitrate between the competing requirements of it's citizens. No government will ever be able to please everyone all of the time. Governments will always be disliked by someone.
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Take thatcher, many would damn her for destroying the mining communities etc. Yet she was also instrumental in setting up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and was one of the first world leaders to start to tackle mankind's effect on the climate. If you are keen on preventing/mitigating climate change then Thatcher was good for your cause. If you liked digging up coal, not so much.
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It is clear the states of the UK are capable of governing themselves. So claims that we need the UK because we are not capable of governing ourselves without making a mess of it are a nonsense.
Yeah, Wales, Scotland, England and NI could all govern themselves, they are not children. But let's imagine what might happen if the UK vanished
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England would probably be ok, as long as we could keep a lid on our bloody banks!. The new English Pound (Stirling is dead) would probably drop a bit, times would be hard as we would have to readjust to our smaller stature. Getting the deficit debt under control would be tough. But would be stop at England? What about Cornish independence? Maybe, London decides it's fed up of producing 20% of the GDP and decides to push off on it's own as the Republic of London and the South East?
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OK, Scotland would march off and implement iScot, which, as we discussed, has a solid economy. it would have to face the economic headwinds of trying to reduce it's deficit and debt. it could devalue it's currency (as it would have to have it's own currency) to make it's industry more competitive. Yup, iScot would bumble along just fine.
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What would NI do? It's southern neighbour would like to absorb it, but what about the significant chunk of the NI population who don't want to be part of Ireland? It could stay as an independent state on the north of an island (just like scotland) but it's economy is not as strong as Scotland or Englands. It would be a functioning state, but what if the old troubles re-emerged? NI could slide the way of Yugoslavia/Ukraine/Nigeria as civil war breaks out. The Irish wouldn't be very happy with a civil war running in the northern tip of their island.
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The welsh economy and public finances are nowhere near as robust as Scotland's. I don't think that anyone seriously claims Wales would be better off financially if it was it's own state. So wales would have to tighten it's belt, cut services and up taxes. At least it can use it's own language at last, and have it's own sports teams and TV.....
It's been a fun ride, true, it's been a barrel of laughs. But all good parties come to an end. Pleading to nostalgia and Conservationism are kinda pointless

So, why do we need the UK.
To go back to the beginning, What is the optimum unit of civilization? I would argue that bigger is better, not just the UK but ultimately the EU and bigger. Of course the caveat is that that people should want to be part of the bigger unit. Forcing people to join is empire. The bigger unit's advantages should speak for themselves, ok we have to give up X,Y and Z, but we get A, B, C, D, E ,F and G!
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Maybe we should work up an independence package for each nation with exactly what happens spelt out (keep/not keep the pound, how much debt, what oil etc). Then every 5/10/20 (pick a number) years have a referendum on it. That way everyone can be sure they are in the union because the chose to be not because they are forced to be.#
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Finally, Given this is an Elite Dangerous forum, if we are ever to get of this rock and actually make ED (as in human colonisation of the stars, not as in murderous corporate dystopia!)a reality we will need the resources of EU/USA/USSR/China scale at least. We should be emphasising our similarities and shared goals for the future, not pointing out our differences and dragging up the past ("Well 300 years ago, your ancestors were a bunch of -holes to my ancestors, plus you speak funny, so we should go our separate ways")
 
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Good question. I guess it comes down to personal philosophy. At some point humans have to group together,
  • tiny (a family)
  • small (a tribe or village)
  • medium (city states or regions)
  • large (nations)
  • very large (federation of nations)
................................................................................................
.To go back to the beginning, What is the optimum unit of civilization? I would argue that bigger is better, not just the UK but ultimately the EU and bigger. Of course the caveat is that that people should want to be part of the bigger unit. Forcing people to join is empire. The bigger unit's advantages should speak for themselves, ok we have to give up X,Y and Z, but we get A, B, C, D, E ,F and G!
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Respectfully, I think you'll find that is wrong..

Humans have been moving toward individualism since ancient times. the drive has always been for greater autonomy, for the individual, the group.

Unions exist for the purposes of defence and economics. The UK was created as a defensive organisation at a time of an increasingly belligerent France. The Union with Ireland came into being directly because of the French Revolution. The fear being that, with improvements in naval technology, an Ireland, occupied by France or any other belligerent European state, could threaten Great Britain. That was the purpose of the Union of 1799.

Those threats no-longer exist. A military union with Europe, which is happening progressively now, is in the best interests of all of the states of the UK.

The economics of the England Scotland union were that the Scots business experience was introduced into the management of the English empire creating vast wealth. It is particularly interesting that the wealth of the empire increased even more with the abolition of slavery, allowing those previously enslaved people to contribute as individuals, that than as someone else's property.

The economic value of the UK union is now gone. The economic contribution of London, while initially affecting London and its surrounding counties, (where I live for example), is European, even world wide. It is the nature of the economic success of London that it is, necessarily, international.

Self determination is the aspiration of all peoples. You seek to think for yourself as do most people. We all seek to avoid and detach any aspect of outside control.

The problem with the current arrangement, as illustrated by the proposals from the UK Parliament for expansion of the Scots Government's authorities, is that they are principally concerned with protecting their own interests. They retain control over key issues that could conceivably affect them at some time in the future.

The problem is further exacerbated by the resentment that is being created in England especially, over how much Scotland seems to have gained. We appear to continue to be subject to the UK's authority, having our lives governed and influenced by people whose interests are not ours. We have been promised high speed rail links for many years, yet all the effort and investment is being ploughed into projects elsewhere.

These are not necessary or acceptable compromises. No-one is benefiting. We are all paying an enormous cost.
 
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Sadly, I think that you may be right!

I understand the point but it's been made repeatedly for as long as there have been records.

The UK is dying. That much is pretty obvious.

The compromise that has been cobbled together to appease the Scots is already antagonising the English and could soon do the same for Wales and Ireland.

Eventually similar settlements will have to be created for the rest of the UK. As things stand the UK seems hell bent on creating a separate institution for N England. It is only a matter of time before that institution demands more powers as well. More importantly, it will lead to England being torn apart.

But we will survive. Eventually the UK will accept the inevitable, simply because it has to.
 
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Two interesting leaders, one in the Indi, the other in the Scotsman. Both say essentially the same thing, but it seems the Scotsman hasn't quite grasped the point yet!

SNP Sturgeon.JPG

From the Independent.

But it would be naive of the SNP to think they could pursue such an agenda without consequences for Anglo-Scottish relations.

The risk to Nicola Sturgeon is that she and her party simply increase English resentment towards Scotland and the Scots.

That would considerably raise the stakes for any MP south of the Border – Labour leader Ed Miliband, for example – who may be tempted to accommodate Scottish demands for more powers for Holyrood.

Why would Mr Miliband, in this example, choose to open himself to the accusation that he was being led a merry dance by Scottish Nationalists?

Ms Sturgeon’s strategy, at present, looks as if it is too clever by half. It may yet prove to be self-defeating.

From The Scotsman http://www.scotsman.com/news/leaders-snp-s-english-vote-science-crisis-1-3668631
 
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