People are entitled to around 24 holiday days per year, plus a number of sick days. For two people that's 48 days a year of paid non-work time. Increase your workforce to 4 doctors and that's 96 six days a year.
You're right but the cost remains the same (48 days at £X per day is the same as 96 days at 0.5X per day).
That's also more work for human resources, more organizational work, recruiting costs, training costs, staff rotas, and other overheads that come from employment. Increased costs at a time of 10% cuts.
Each doctor must be individually insured against mistakes and malpractice. Each doctor needs their own tools and equipment. Each doctor must be individually taught and trained, with each doctor also finding time to specialize in a particular area. Each new doctor must go through a few years of medical training which also costs.
Yes there is potentially more HR effort, although the NHS is already one of the biggest employers in the world, hospital trusts are amongst the biggest employers in their area. It's not a case of the HR dept having to "step up a gear", they are already at the top end of HR. The addition of more staff will casue more work, but the procedures should already be in place to handle a staff of thousands. Things like rotas and scheduling are handled by software I would expect so no extra issues there. However those costs can be offset by (hopefully) less stress/overwork related issues (which are time consuming as they have to be handled individually) amd less impact when someone is ill/holiday/maternity etc. It's not just a case of increacing costs, there would be savings though I concede that the costs would overall increace.
Yes each doctor must be individually insured, but the overall insurance costs of the system are dictated by the likelihood of mistakes over the entire population. If lower hours means fewer mistakes then the overall insurance bill will reduce (or someone will take the profit, but lets ignore that for now). Each doctor also pays less for insurance (as there are now more doctors sharing the burden of fewer mistakes.
As for tools and equipment, I guess personal stuff like a stethoscope maybe, but isn't most of a doctors "tools" (computer, MRI scanner, blood pressure meter, laboratory) provided by his employers and most of it is taken out, used and returned for disposal/sterilization between patients so the number of items is not dictated by the number of doctors but more by the number of patients (which might go up for longer opening but is not related to the contracts)
And where are all of these new doctors coming from all of a sudden?
You can not simply increase the workforce but keep the same base pay. Come on.
You are absolutely right though about the cost of training and "producing" these extra doctors would be extra. Increasing the annual "yield" of doctors from medical school would increase the overall cost of training them.
There is also the question of actually getting the doctors to fill the vacancies (which might be harder if the headline wages drop, although you could argue the drop in hours might help increase recruitment) this would take time, at least 5 if not 10 years from £pushing the button" to a meaningful uptick in the supply of doctors. That being said, the lower hours (and in particular the possibility of rehiring women coming back from maternity) might help with retention.
Please note: There is absolutely no mention of the government increasing our healthcare budget even though we pay less towards it than almost any other OECD nation and almost half of what they pay in the USA (as a proportion of GDP). In fact they are cutting it further.
Again you are right, and this "no more cash but open more hours" argument is compelling. It is highly likely that trying to increase opening hours without increasing the budget (to allow more doctors to cover those hours) would result in a drop in quality. it should be fought against, possibly even with strikes.
BUT, the "no more cash but open more hours" argument is not the same as "these new contracts are unsafe".
The BMA argument is that the new contracts are unsafe. The gov has
responded by listing things reducing the max average hours from 56 to 48hrs, reducing the max shift length from 14 to 13 hours, reducing the number of consecutive nights or long days from 7 to 5 and so on. Many JD's have accused the gov of lying.
This is what kicked off this thread to begin with. On the face of it the gov position that the new contracts have better protection from long hours seems to be valid yet the JD's say the government is lying. So we have 2 groups saying different things, who do we believe? I've tried to dig up info on the current vs the old contracts. The BMA requires membership to see their briefing papers (I would love for JD to post these so I can see their arguments). The gov ones are visible (but could be biased).
What I can see is that the remaining sticking point with the BMA seems to be
not the hours protection in the contract, they are not asking for the averaging time to be reduced, or the number of night shifts to be cut, but the principle that Saturday working be "antisocial hours". If you look at the BBC graphic of the two proposals, the main difference between the gov and BMA is that weekends are all "antisocial" rather than the gov position that Saturdays are "weekdays".
Given the BMA sticking point is not "the hours protection" but "keep Saturday special", how does that square with the "it's about patient safety, the new contract will make JDs work unsafe hours"?
I am asking you, again, to read your own words and apply mathematical logic.
If you have 60 hours per week of medical coverage, and a new contract is made that reduces that coverage to 40, that means there is 20 fewer hours of medical work being done. This means that there is a 33% drop in coverage.
Unless injuries, accidents, disease, and chronic conditions are also reduced by 33% then doctors will have a shorter time to diagnose and treat conditions during busier times.
That WILL cause an increase in complications, mistakes, and serious compromise of already strained patient care. That WILL, in turn, cause an increase in death and serious long term conditions such as amputations and organ failures.
This is not about the junior doctors, this is about gutting the service and rebuilding it into something more profitable. Unless you're intending to buy shares in a healthcare company then turkeys voting for Christmas springs to mind on this one.
Again, I see your point. Here's my rebuttal.
Under the current system, the max hours a JD can average (i'm not sure how big the "window" is or exactly how it is calculated) is 56 with an absolute max of 72 in a 7 day period. This means that a JD could work a 72hr week, but they would have to work a sub 56 hour week to compensate elsewhere (this then probably results in someone else having to work a 72 hour shift thus perpetuating the cycle).
Without, extensive running of the numbers it is difficult to tell if the new regulations would reduce the total number of hours available. However it is entirely possible that a system could reduce the maximum hours a JD could work whilst keeping the total hours worked the same.
As a simple example (going back to my hedgehog hospital).
I now have my 4 employees working 30hrs a week to give me 24 mon-fri coverage. However, due to a mix up with the rota, Alf works from 00:00 Monday to 06:00 Tuesday, then Betty from 06:00 Tuesday to 10:00 Wednesday. Charlie from 10:00 Wednesday to 16:00 Thursday and Dave from 16:00 Thursday to 24:00 Friday i.e. 4 x 30hr shifts
By the end of each person's 30hr shift they are knackered, hedgehog fatalities skyrocket in the latter half of each shift. My employees demand a limit of 8 hours per shift and no more than 12 hours in any 48 (or similar).
Then I realise my mistake and rota everybody on for a 6 hour shift every day, and hey presto, no more hedgehog mishaps! I've kept the same hours available but reduced the maximum hours any person could work in a given period.
It's not necessary that reducing the maximum hours employees work, reduces the hours available. Essentially what you are trying to do is reduce the peaks and troughs.
I'm 100% for the NHS being free at the point of use, and being a publicly owned and run organization, I would oppose any plans to "sell off" parts (or all) of it.
However, to get back to the main point, I have been able to see the link that the BMA are putting forward that the current strikes are justified because the new contracts would compromise patient safety.
Some of the actions that could be taken once the contracts are in place could compromise patient safety, but equally some actions taken after the new contracts are in place might improve it. The important point is not these contracts, but what happens (or does not happen) down the road.