General / Off-Topic Post Brexit: Petition for a new referendum

[Sunleader]

Actually, I agree with you that the "Kingdom" is fragile, but then so is the European "Union".

The Problem is the Difference in Scale of Targets.

For the UK to Fall Apart. All the EU has to do. Is to Stay there and Wait while UK Economy Collapses.
As long as UK does not get any Profit from Leaving the EU. The EU will not only not Destabilize. But will even go out of this Stabilized because the Leave Parties lose alot of Influence.
This can already be Viewed Right now. Because while some Parties instantly upon Brexit Votum started Demanding an Referendum. The Polls Show that the Leave Parties are losing Influence because UK is Falling Apart and People are now Scared that if they Leave the EU the Same will happen to them.

For the EU however to fall Apart. The UK needs not only Calm down its current Problems and Independence Movements. It needs to Cut out a Deal much Superior to what it had in the EU. It somehow needs to Magically Increase its GDP and GDP Per Capita.
It needs to Fullfill the Promises as well as Avoid an Humiliation by admitting to EU Regulations and Gain Access to the Free Trade Zone for Free.
And it needs to do all of that very very Fast before the UK Breaks Apart.


The Challenge is Incredible Lopsided.
The EU to Win just needs to ride the Lift to the 10th Stage and Sit down there to Sip some Coffee.
Meanwhile the UK to Win has to Climb Mount Everest without any Climbing Equipment while Carrying a Horse on its Shoulders. And it needs to be on the Top and Finish an Surgical Operation on the Horses Brain with nothing but a Tea Spoon before the EU has Emptied its Coffee.


Its fairly Obvious how this is going to End.
The EU will end up being Stabilized more than ever because Everyone Sees what Leaving the EU Results in.
And UK will be very very Lucky if it manages to even Remain UK and does not go Back towards being several States of which some wont Apply for Immediate Return to the EU.

 

[Patrick_68000]

According a survey of the institute Panelbase for the "Sunday Times", 52 % of the Scottish people want now that the Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, while 48 % are against the separation. One can not say that it is a plebiscite

 

[Sunleader]

According a survey of the institute Panelbase for the "Sunday Times", 52 % of the Scottish people want now that the Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, while 48 % are against the separation. One can not say that it is a plebiscite

Other Polls go up to 58% by now.
Some News even Report 60% based on their own Phone Call Polls. (Pls note Phone Call Polls are Unreliable so that can be Ignored I guess)


More Importand however is the Statement of the Scottish Government. Which has already Announced that they Preparing a Referendum and which has Invited EU Officials for Negotiations to keep Scottland in the EU.
The Biggest Statement here was. That the Scottish Regional Government on this has taken down the British Flag. And only Posted an Scottish and an European Flag in their Office.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Other Polls go up to 58% by now.
Some News even Report 60% based on their own Phone Call Polls. (Pls note Phone Call Polls are Unreliable so that can be Ignored I guess)


More Importand however is the Statement of the Scottish Government. Which has already Announced that they Preparing a Referendum and which has Invited EU Officials for Negotiations to keep Scottland in the EU.
The Biggest Statement here was. That the Scottish Regional Government on this has taken down the British Flag. And only Posted an Scottish and an European Flag in their Office.

Do you think that the UK could mobilize the army in Scotland in case of unilateral scission ?

 

[Patrick_68000]

Regarding the petition, if we look at the distribution of signatures, we find that the concentration is in the south of England ---- http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215

 

[Becks]

Do you think that the UK could mobilize the army in Scotland in case of unilateral scission ?

That'd surely lead to a civil war.

I doubt they want a second Ireland in big.

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Regarding the petition, if we look at the distribution of signatures, we find that the concentration is in the south of England ---- http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=131215

Not surprising given that fact that Scotland wants to go independent and that the south is more densely populated.

 

[Patrick_68000]

That'd surely lead to a civil war.

I doubt they want a second Ireland in big.

That's the question I asked myself. The England would accept to be alone with the Wales ? And the Queen would accept to be separated from Scotland ?

 

[Becks]

That's the question I asked myself. The England would accept to be alone with the Wales ? And the Queen would accept to be separated from Scotland ?

The Queen is still the Queen of Canada and Australia and so on, isn't she? So I doubt that the Queen will take a stand or voice her opinion here.

It could be that the UK orders a big part of its troops from Scotland to the south. I can't agine that they let scotland run away with their nuclear weapons

 

[Ozram]

The Problem is the Difference in Scale of Targets.

For the UK to Fall Apart. All the EU has to do. Is to Stay there and Wait while UK Economy Collapses.
As long as UK does not get any Profit from Leaving the EU. The EU will not only not Destabilize. But will even go out of this Stabilized because the Leave Parties lose alot of Influence.
This can already be Viewed Right now. Because while some Parties instantly upon Brexit Votum started Demanding an Referendum. The Polls Show that the Leave Parties are losing Influence because UK is Falling Apart and People are now Scared that if they Leave the EU the Same will happen to them.

For the EU however to fall Apart. The UK needs not only Calm down its current Problems and Independence Movements. It needs to Cut out a Deal much Superior to what it had in the EU. It somehow needs to Magically Increase its GDP and GDP Per Capita.
It needs to Fullfill the Promises as well as Avoid an Humiliation by admitting to EU Regulations and Gain Access to the Free Trade Zone for Free.
And it needs to do all of that very very Fast before the UK Breaks Apart.


The Challenge is Incredible Lopsided.
The EU to Win just needs to ride the Lift to the 10th Stage and Sit down there to Sip some Coffee.
Meanwhile the UK to Win has to Climb Mount Everest without any Climbing Equipment while Carrying a Horse on its Shoulders. And it needs to be on the Top and Finish an Surgical Operation on the Horses Brain with nothing but a Tea Spoon before the EU has Emptied its Coffee.


Its fairly Obvious how this is going to End.
The EU will end up being Stabilized more than ever because Everyone Sees what Leaving the EU Results in.
And UK will be very very Lucky if it manages to even Remain UK and does not go Back towards being several States of which some wont Apply for Immediate Return to the EU.

I'm not sure it's quite so lopsided as you suggest. The U.K. Is hardly a tiny underdog and successions from the kingdom are not a given (a mass succession, breaking up the commonwealth is unlikely in the extreme). On the flip side, retaining member states is an absolute imperative for the EU. The potential of having lost Greece put them up in arms. Losing the UK may very well create a domino effect and they know it. Where the balance lies, I don't know, but they won't be sipping tea and watching the UK crumble.

 

[Becks]

I'm not sure it's quite so lopsided as you suggest. The U.K. Is hardly a tiny underdog and successions from the kingdom are not a given (a mass succession, breaking up the commonwealth is unlikely in the extreme). On the flip side, retaining member states is an absolute imperative for the EU. The potential of having lost Greece put them up in arms. Losing the UK may very well create a domino effect and they know it. Where the balance lies, I don't know, but they won't be sipping tea and watching the UK crumble.

It won't create a Domino effect with the current Situation which is much worse for the UK than for the EU.

You're currently a Guinea pig for some states in the EU.

If it works out they're going to follow you, if not then not.

But the earliest to determine that is in twenty years when the UK has established relations to the EU and rebuild its economy.

Same goes for the Rest of the bigger trade blocs in the world. They're going to wait how your relations to the EU will be before they even consider a FTA with the UK.

Edit: Your real economic problems haven't even started yet. It will get slightly better until you get out of the EU and then it will get much much worse than it is now.

The UK needs the EU a lot more than the EU needs the UK.

 

[Patrick_68000]

I can't agine that they let scotland run away with their nuclear weapons

Indeed it would run counter to the prohibition on the proliferation of nuclear weapons

 

[Frank]

I'll just take Scottish independence I think. I've wanted that all of my life, even before it ever seemed like a realistic aspiration.

I voted for Scottish Independence. I want it, but not like this.

Almost half the people in England voted to stay, and I'm sure a large proportion of those who voted to leave were protest voters who thought that nobody else would be dumb enough to vote yes. Even Nigel Farage himself seemed to think he'd lose.

"The Last Leg" showed Boris Johnson on telly. They dubbed on the sound of screaming with delight to contrast his sombre look. I really don't think that he was hiding his happiness. I don't think he's that good an actor. David Cameron did the only sensible thing left to him and resigned before committing us to Article 50. Boris Johnson is going to have to press that self-destruct button himself.

They all seem quite reluctant to push that button. Boris was on the "Remain" campaign until he switched sides for career reasons, and that sudden honesty of Nigel Farage seems to suggest him saying "Don't touch that button until you know the whole of the truth!"

Boris will be sitting with his finger poised over that button thinking about what would happen in Northern Ireland, and up in Scotland, about all the new trade deals he'd have to negotiate in not just Europe but the whole of the world, about how he'd still have the same hassles with Europe if he wanted to stay in the Single Market but none of the bargaining power... I'd reckon a second referendum would look sweet to him.

 

[howardtay]

The Conservatives thought that they would win and we would remain in Europe, hence the reason for not giving the facts about what leaving would mean, in stead they went down the doom and gloom path, the people of this country wanted data or reasons to remain or leave, but all they got from MPs was statements that would generate fear, It didn't work, people no longer believe in this or any other government because they lie all the time, so Brexit won, terms like 'Lets take control back', and 'Our Independance Day' captured the imagination of some of the people, and as most aree fed up with politics, this is the result.

Scotland should now be allowed to leave the Union, anything else would be grossly unfair to their referendum vote.

As for the imigration question, most Brits are imigrants, my family imigrated from Normandy in 1066 with William the Conquerer, does that make me an illegal imigrant? yes, we need to lower the numbers as we are a small Island with limited space and resources it is logical to fit imigration into what we can support.

I personally did'nt vote, purely because I needed more information to reach a viable conclusion, this information was not available from any of the parties, that's bad politics.

I still don't know which is best Remain or Leave, but I accept the decision of those that did vote and hope that we can thrive in this new Britain, a return to pre 1975 UK? nobody knows now, what tomorrow will bring...and that's a bit scarry!

 

[Sunleader]

I'm not sure it's quite so lopsided as you suggest. The U.K. Is hardly a tiny underdog and successions from the kingdom are not a given (a mass succession, breaking up the commonwealth is unlikely in the extreme). On the flip side, retaining member states is an absolute imperative for the EU. The potential of having lost Greece put them up in arms. Losing the UK may very well create a domino effect and they know it. Where the balance lies, I don't know, but they won't be sipping tea and watching the UK crumble.

UK is the Fifth Largest Economy with 2800 Billion.
So its not Small.

But it is in this Fight an Incredible Underdog.
Cause alone Germany has 3300 Billion meaning that Germany alone is Stronger than the UK in Economy.
And EU also has France with 2400 Billion and Italy with 1800 Billion.

UK with its 2800 Billion stand vs the EU with 13400 Billion.
In Short the UK is against an Enemy 5 Times as Powerful as itself.



Greece was Dangerous not because Greece Left. But because Greece would have been Forced out.
Creating an Legal Black Hole and Decades of Unrest.
The Danger was that if EU lets Greece Fall. other Small Countries would Leave out of Fear to be left alone as well if things got Rough.

UK Leaving on its Own is not nearly as Dangerous. No Country needs to be Scared of the EU turning Traitor on them and throwing them out. So there is no Benefit in leaving to avoid such an Scenario.
Moreover this time Brussels was Prepared.


No Domino Effect will happen. Because on Day 1 UK started Falling Apart. Which serves as an Incredible Example of how Bad Leaving the EU is.

 

[Patrick_68000]

I'm not sure it's quite so lopsided as you suggest. The U.K. Is hardly a tiny underdog and successions from the kingdom are not a given (a mass succession, breaking up the commonwealth is unlikely in the extreme). On the flip side, retaining member states is an absolute imperative for the EU. The potential of having lost Greece put them up in arms. Losing the UK may very well create a domino effect and they know it. Where the balance lies, I don't know, but they won't be sipping tea and watching the UK crumble.

Yes. The loss of United Kingdom for the European Union is an instantaneous loss of 65 million inhabitants. The equivalent of the number of victims of the Second World War

 

[Patrick_68000]

UK is the Fifth Largest Economy with 2800 Billion. So its not Small.

You underestimate the GDP

 

[Ozram]

It won't create a Domino effect with the current Situation which is much worse for the UK than for the EU.

You're currently a Guinea pig for some states in the EU.

If it works out they're going to follow you, if not then not.

But the earliest to determine that is in twenty years when the UK has established relations to the EU and rebuild its economy.

Same goes for the Rest of the bigger trade blocs in the world. They're going to wait how your relations to the EU will be before they even consider a FTA with the UK.

Edit: Your real economic problems haven't even started yet. It will get slightly better until you get out of the EU and then it will get much much worse than it is now.

The UK needs the EU a lot more than the EU needs the UK.

One way or another we will see what happens. Leaving the EU is not as simple as this vote. The process itself takes years and there are clauses and bylaws etc. They make it very hard to leave. Here's an interesting (and current) article on the topic:
https://theconversation.com/britain...u-cameron-quits-heres-what-happens-next-61420

After this vote, now the UK needs to make a formal declaration of intent to leave the EU. From there a number of actions are set in motion. It's convoluted and designed to stop any member country from exiting. I am still of the opinion that the "strength" of the EU is retaining the illusion that it's member states need it and once the spell is broken the "union" will be soon to follow. One shouldn't underestimate the hatred that austerity measures have garnered. Unless the EU with help from the states manages to squash this "uprising" inside the next two years (which it very well may do) then other nations may well follow suit.
Here's another interesting article:
http://time.com/4381428/brexit-eu-response/
On a side note, I reside in Australia.
Cheers

 

[Becks]

You underestimate the GDP

http://savepic.net/8232013.jpg

That's an estimated value. He uses the fixed values of 2015.

And I wouldn't give a damn about that estimation after the Brexit

 

[Patrick_68000]

That's an estimated value. He uses the fixed values of 2015.

And I wouldn't give a damn about that estimation after the Brexit

The sales of ED and paint job should allow to maintain these forecasts

 

[Winterwalker]

Boris will be sitting with his finger poised over that button thinking about what would happen in Northern Ireland, and up in Scotland, about all the new trade deals he'd have to negotiate in not just Europe but the whole of the world, about how he'd still have the same hassles with Europe if he wanted to stay in the Single Market but none of the bargaining power... I'd reckon a second referendum would look sweet to him.

Agree totally. I'm glad the vote, UK wide, was to Leave .. in very large part because I don't like the fact we only get a vote on the EU every 40 years. That has seen the EU totally over reaching its original brief. Having had that vote, we should now refuse to go imo, but seek a reform that allows cultural links, economic co-operation and etc but does not tie us into a totalitarian state. I've a feeling that wouldn't go down too badly across European people as a whole but who knows, now the Eastern states are in.

A second problem with the EU for the UK is a structural deficit EVER SINCE joining. The only time UK saw surplus was when it sold something, big .. rail, steel, telecoms, gas, water post office, free university places. That can't go on, there's nothing left to sell. We also need to think about getting some public finances raised as, in case nobody noticed, we've huge inequalities in the UK but the infrastructure (which you can only really fix up with public money) needs a sustainability overhaul.

We've got some bargaining power now but not if we lose Scotland in the process I think. It's unclear to me whether an independent Scotland would automatically qualify to join the EU, though I suspect if she did, she would have to join the Euro .. and that means bailing out Greece etc. .. don't know how popular that would be in Scotland when push come to shove.

May you live in interesting times ~ Chinese Proverb.